Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Picks - Thursday, September 11, 2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates face the Baltimore Orioles, with both teams wrapping up rough seasons. The Pirates are 64-82, and with five losses in a row, they have the worst record in the National League Central Division. The Orioles are 68-77 and in last place in the American League East Division. Who will win this game? Check out our Pirates vs Orioles prediction!
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Pittsburgh hopes Oviedo helps out lineup
The Pirates are having a rough season and hope to provide some optimism for the future. Johan Oviedo is one of the pitchers who can provide that as he’s having a great season, allowing only seven runs in 20 innings pitched while tossing 24 strikeouts. Moreover, with a .168 expected opponent Batting Average, a .259 expected opponent Slugging Percentage, and a 2.63 expected ERA, opponents are making minimal contact and struggling to drive in runs against Oviedo this season.
Oviedo has stepped up, but the lineup is the worst in baseball, scoring only 3.61 runs per game with only eight runs in the last four games. Tommy Pham is slashing .261/.335/.391 with nine home runs and 138 total bases while Andrew McCutchen is slashing 243/.337/.384 with 13 home runs and 166 total bases but the rest of the lineup has struggled. Only four batters have an OPS+ over 100, and opposing pitchers can eliminate the hapless lineup with ease.
Orioles hope Povich and lineup step up
The Orioles are having a season to forget and look to finish a rough season on a high note and out of last place in the division. Cade Povich will start the upcoming game, and he looks to improve on what’s been a rough season on the mound as he’s allowed 60 runs in 96 innings pitched. In addition, with a .529 expected opponent Slugging Percentage, a 48.9 Hard-Hit Rate, and a 5.74 expected ERA, opponents are making hard contact and driving in runs with ease against Povich this season.
Povich has struggled but the lineup has also disappointed, scoring only 4.33 runs per game. Ryan O’Hearn is slashing .283/.374/.463 with 13 home runs and 144 total bases while Gunnar Henderson is slashing .272/.346/.444 with 16 home runs and 227 total bases but the rest of the lineup has struggled. Only two active batters have an OPS+ over 100, and opposing pitchers can eliminate the lineup as a result.
Pirates vs. Orioles Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,778.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,716.00 |
| 3 |  David Hess | +1,326.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,323.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,071.00 |
Spread Pick for Pirates vs. Orioles
- Pirates (+130) (4 Units)
The Pirates have stumbled lately but I see them taking over this game from the first inning. The Pirates should constantly drive in runs with Tommy Pham, Andrew McCutchen, and the rest of the lineup making contact and driving in runs against Cade Povich, who has allowed 60 runs in 96 innings pitched. The Pirates should limit the Orioles at the plate with Johan Oviedo stepping up and tossing multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a lead. The Pirates should win the game and provide great odds in the process as road Underdogs.
Take the Pirates money line as road Underdogs.
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Orioles
- Under 8.5 (5 Units)
Both teams have awful lineups, and this game looks to be a low-scoring one from the first pitch. The Orioles should limit a Pirates lineup that averages only 4.33 runs per game, with Cade Povich tossing multiple strong innings. The Pirates should eliminate and potentially shut out the Orioles, who average only 4.33 runs per game, with Johan Oviedo, who has allowed only seven runs in 20 innings pitched, tossing multiple scoreless innings with minimal contact and a surplus of strikeouts. The Under should cover in a low-scoring game with both starting pitchers stepping up.
Take the Under on 8.5 runs.
The Pirates wrap up their series against the Orioles with both teams looking to wrap up rough seasons on a high note.
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