Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 12, 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Chicago Cubs on Saturday at Wrigley Field, with the opening pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh is 74-73, third in the NL Central, 17 games behind Milwaukee and five games outside the final NL Wild Card spot. The Pirates have won four straight, including a 2-0 win over the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is 81-66, second in the NL Central, 10 games behind Milwaukee, and holds the second NL Wild Card position. The Cubs have lost four straight after an 8-6 loss to Milwaukee. Cash in a big winner with our free MLB picks.

Pittsburgh Pirates Playing Their Best Baseball of the Week

Pittsburgh arrives in Chicago after sweeping the White Sox and allowing only five runs across the three-game series. The Pirates are batting .253 with a .331 on-base percentage and .403 slugging percentage, producing 709 runs and 168 home runs. Nick Gonzales leads the club with a .305 average and 156 hits. Brandon Lowe provides the top power numbers with 29 home runs and 83 RBI.

Bryan Reynolds has a .369 on-base percentage with 16 home runs and 69 RBI, while Oneil Cruz has 18 homers and 27 stolen bases in 84 games. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .236 opponent batting average. The Pirates have struck out 1,357 hitters and own a plus-34 run differential. Pittsburgh is 36-39 away from home.

Injuries: Ryan O'Hearn is on the 10-day IL. Kirby Yates, Braxton Ashcraft and Isaac Mattson are on the 15-day IL. Mitch Keller is on the 60-day IL.

Chicago Cubs Trying to End a Four-Game Slide

Chicago returns home after losing four consecutive road games. The Cubs dropped all three games in Milwaukee, including an 8-6 defeat Wednesday. Chicago is batting .251 with a .339 on-base percentage and .429 slugging percentage while scoring 780 runs and hitting 203 home runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the offense with a .281 average, 41 home runs, 97 RBI, 159 hits and 36 stolen bases.

The Cubs have several other power threats. Alex Bregman has 24 home runs and 82 RBI, while Seiya Suzuki has 24 homers, 80 RBI and a .366 on-base percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff owns a 4.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .245 opponent batting average. The Cubs have allowed 221 home runs, but their plus-128 run differential remains strong. Chicago is 41-31 at Wrigley Field.

Injuries: Tyler Austin, Hunter Harvey and Shelby Miller are on the 60-day IL. Gavin Hollowell and Edward Cabrera are on the 15-day IL.

Pitching Matchup

Pittsburgh Pirates - Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes is 10-11 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 155 innings. The right-hander has allowed 133 hits, 45 walks and 15 home runs while recording 181 strikeouts. Skenes has averaged more than one strikeout per inning and has kept his WHIP among the stronger marks on Pittsburgh’s staff.

Chicago Cubs - Clay Holmes

Clay Holmes is 6-7 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 86 innings. The right-hander has allowed 66 hits and 30 walks while striking out 65. Holmes has surrendered only five home runs, helping him keep his ERA below three and limit damaging contact during his 86 innings.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Game Pick

• Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh is the pick behind Skenes and a strong recent stretch. The Pirates have won four straight and eight of their last 10, while Chicago has dropped four consecutive games. Skenes has 181 strikeouts in 155 innings with a 1.15 WHIP, providing Pittsburgh with a dependable starter for this matchup. Chicago owns the stronger overall record and has played well at Wrigley Field, but the Cubs’ staff has allowed 221 home runs. Pittsburgh’s recent pitching and Skenes make the Pirates the choice Saturday afternoon.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick with Skenes and Holmes forming a strong starting matchup. Holmes owns a 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while allowing only five home runs across 86 innings. Skenes has a 3.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 155 innings. Pittsburgh has allowed only five runs during its four-game winning streak, including a shutout Thursday. Chicago has plenty of power, but both starters have limited baserunners and home runs. Those pitching numbers support a lower-scoring outcome at Wrigley Field.