Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 25, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Thursday, the Pittsburgh Pirates (68-69, 5th NL Central) play the final game of a three-game series on the road against National League Central rival the Cincinnati Reds (80-77, 3rd NL Central). Pittsburgh opened the series with a 4-2 victory over the Reds on Tuesday. Pittsburgh has won three straight, but the Pirates have been eliminated from postseason contention and can only act as a spoiler in the final five games of the regular season. The loss by Cincinnati snapped a 5-game winning streak by the Reds. Cincinnati is one game behind the third and final NL wild card, which is currently held by the New York Mets. Pittsburgh will play without one pitcher as well as position players Ronny Simon, Endy Rodriguez, Enmanuel Valdez, and Jack Brannigan. Cincinnati will play without seven pitchers and left fielder Tyler Callihan. Make sure to read this in-depth Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds prediction. Step up to the plate! Check out our free MLB picks for the Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds prediction and swing for the fences.
This article was written before these two played on Wednesday
Pittsburgh's struggles are at the plate but not on the mound
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled all season scoring runs, sitting 30th or last in both runs scored and slugging percentage, while only slightly better in on-base percentage at 24th and batting average at 28th. Oneil Cruz has 20 home runs to lead Pittsburgh, and Bryan Reynolds is second with 16 dingers. The leader in RBI is Reynolds with 73, and Cruz is second with 61. Pittsburgh has only four players with 50 or more RBI. The Pirates have hit 236 doubles, 21 triples, and 113 home runs for 370 extra base hits in 157 games.
Pittsburgh's strength all season has been on the mound, and that's no surprise, having an ace such as Paul Skenes. The Pirates are 5th in WHIP, seventh in ERA, 8th in batting average against, and 18th in Quality Starts. Skenes is the stats leader for Pittsburgh; first in wins with 10, strikeouts with 209, and ERA for starters with 2.03. The Pirates will hand the ball to Braxton Ashcraft, who this season has a 2.62 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The right-hander is 4-3 in 25 appearances with seven starts.
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Cincinnati is performing better on the mound than at the plate
The Cincinnati Reds are slightly below average at the plate. Cincinnati is 14th in runs scored, 18th in on-base percentage, 19th in batting average, and 21st in slugging percentage. Elly De La Cruz is Cincinnati's most productive hitter with 31 doubles (1st), 7 triples (1st), 21 home runs (T-1st), and 85 RBI (1st). Spencer Steer is tied for first in home runs with 21 and is second in RBI with 74. Cincinnati has five players with 50 or more RBI. Cincinnati has hit 243 doubles, 23 triples, and 162 home runs for 428 extra-base hits in 157 games.
Cincinnati is equal to Pittsburgh, as the Reds are performing much better on the mound than at the plate. Cincinnati is 4th in Quality Starts, 7th in batting average against, 9th in WHIP, and 14th in ERA. Brady Singer leads Cincinnati in wins with 14 and strikeouts with 158, while Andrew Abbott leads in ERA for starters with 2.80. Nick Lodolo starts on the mound for Cincinnati on Thursday. This season, the left-hander is 8-8 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 144 strikeouts.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
Spread Pick for Pirates vs. Reds
- Pittsburgh Pirates (4 units)
Pittsburgh has won five of the last seven games head-to-head versus Cincinnati, including the first game of the series on Tuesday. Pittsburgh has been eliminated from postseason contention, while Cincinnati is battling for a wild card spot; therefore, all the pressure is on Cincinnati in this matchup. Pittsburgh has problems scoring runs, but has had success on the mound. The Pirates will have a starter who has performed well this season. Pittsburgh starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has started and pitched in relief, with a 2.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. Ashcraft pitched 3.1 innings against Cincinnati on August 9, with Pittsburgh losing 2-1, but the right-hander gave up just three hits and one run. Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo has been roughed up in each of his last two outings, giving up 17 hits and nine runs in only 10.0 innings.
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Reds
- Under (5 units)
The total finished under in the first game of this series when the two teams combined to score just six runs on a closing line of 8.0. The total has finished under in seven of Pittsburgh's last nine games, seven of Pittsburgh's last eight games played on the road, and five of Pittsburgh's last six games played on the road against Cincinnati. The total has finished under in five of Cincinnati's last seven games and in eight of the last 10 games that Cincinnati has played overall against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 7th in ERA and Cincinnati is 14th.
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