Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Picks - September 23, 2025
Tuesday evening, Major League Baseball action, and we have a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction ready to rock and roll. It has been another long season for the Pirates as they have gone 67-89 on the year. The Reds still have a shot at a playoff berth as they currently own the 3rd Wildcard slot in the National League. Can Cincinnati keep that spot? Read on to see our Pirates vs Reds prediction.
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Pirates Destroy The Athletics
The Pirates arrive in Cincinnati riding a two-game win streak, having shut out the Athletics in back-to-back games over the weekend. Saturday’s 2–0 victory featured solo homers from Nick Yorke and Bryan Reynolds, while Bubba Chandler tossed five scoreless innings in one of his sharpest outings of the year. On Sunday, Pittsburgh exploded for 11 runs on 15 hits, with Jared Triolo and Joey Bart each going deep and collecting four hits apiece. The back-to-back shutouts marked a rare stretch of dominance for a team that had dropped 12 of its previous 13 games, and the timing couldn’t be better as they head into a divisional matchup with playoff implications for their opponent.
This six-game road trip to close out the season begins in Cincinnati, where the Pirates have split the season series 5–5 and now have a chance to tilt it in their favor. While their road record remains poor—just 23 wins in 75 tries—the recent offensive surge and improved defensive play offer some optimism. Oneil Cruz has looked more comfortable at the plate, Andrew McCutchen continues to provide veteran stability, and Triolo’s emergence as a multi-hit threat adds depth to a lineup that’s often struggled to string together rallies. With the Reds fighting for a Wild Card spot, Pittsburgh has a chance to play spoiler and test its young core in a high-stakes environment.
Johan Oviedo will take the ball for the Pirates, making his sixth start since returning from a forearm strain that sidelined him for much of the summer. He’s coming off a solid outing against Baltimore, where he allowed just two earned runs over 5.2 innings while striking out five. Oviedo has posted a 3.52 ERA across 30.2 innings this season, leaning heavily on his slider and sinker to induce ground balls and limit damage. His ability to navigate traffic and avoid big innings has been a strength, and against a Reds lineup that thrives on speed and early-count aggression, Oviedo’s command and sequencing will be critical to keeping the game within reach.
Reds Look To Keep Playoff Hopes Alive
The Reds enter Tuesday’s matchup riding a five-game win streak and surging toward a potential Wild Card berth. Their latest victory was a 1–0 shutout of the Cubs, powered by Gavin Lux’s RBI double and a five-man pitching effort that kept Chicago off the board. Andrew Abbott started and scattered five hits over 4.2 innings, while Tony Santillan closed it out for his seventh save. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been dominant over the past week, allowing just one run in its last 15 innings, and the defense has tightened up at the right time. With six games left, the Reds are tied with the Mets for the final NL playoff spot and playing with urgency.
Cincinnati has gone 10–5 since September 5, clawing back from a six-game deficit with a mix of timely hitting, aggressive baserunning, and elite pitching. Spencer Steer and TJ Friedl have been consistent producers, while Elly De La Cruz remains a game-changing threat with his speed and raw power. The Reds have also benefited from improved infield defense and better situational hitting, both of which will be critical against a Pirates team that’s shown flashes of offensive punch. With the home crowd behind them and postseason stakes on the line, Cincinnati will be looking to set the tone early.
Brady Singer takes the mound for the Reds, bringing a 14–10 record and a 3.86 ERA into the matchup. He’s logged 161 innings and struck out 155, relying on a sharp slider and a sinking fastball that induces weak contact and keeps hitters off balance. Singer has been especially effective at home, where he’s held opponents to a .218 average and shown strong command in high-leverage spots. Against a Pirates lineup that’s coming off a breakout performance, Singer’s ability to change speeds and work the edges will be key to maintaining Cincinnati’s playoff momentum.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Pirates vs Reds Moneyline Pick
- Cincinnati -150 (5 Units)
Cincinnati -150 over Pittsburgh is a sharp play for Tuesday night’s NL Central clash, anchored by a strong home edge and a clear pitching advantage. The Reds send Brady Singer to the mound, who’s quietly put together a solid campaign with a 14–10 record, 3.86 ERA, and 155 strikeouts over 161.2 innings. He’s coming off a quality start against St. Louis and has logged 15 quality starts this season, consistently working deep into games. While Singer’s numbers against Pittsburgh this year are inflated (5.93 ERA in 13.2 innings), the Pirates’ offense ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored, slugging percentage, and home runs—making this a favorable bounce-back spot for the veteran right-hander.
Offensively, Cincinnati holds the edge as well, ranking 14th in total runs scored and 17th in batting average, compared to Pittsburgh’s bottom-tier metrics across the board. The Reds have won 53.6% of games as favorites this season and are 11–10 when favored at similar odds, showing they’ve held serve in spots like this. Johan Oviedo gets the start for Pittsburgh, but with just two decisions on the year and limited innings, he’s unlikely to match Singer’s workload or effectiveness. With playoff urgency and a more complete roster, Cincinnati is well-positioned to control the tempo and cash the moneyline at home.
Pirates vs Reds Over/Under Pick
- Over 8.5 (4 Units)
Over 8.5 in Tuesday night’s Reds–Pirates matchup is a sharp play backed by vulnerable pitching and sneaky offensive upside. Brady Singer has a solid season-long ERA, but he’s struggled against Pittsburgh specifically—posting a 5.93 ERA and 1.76 WHIP across 13.2 innings vs. the Pirates this year. Johan Oviedo counters for Pittsburgh, and while his surface stats are respectable, Cincinnati’s lineup has hit 161 home runs and ranks 14th in runs scored, showing they can capitalize on mistakes. Both bullpens have been inconsistent, and with warm September conditions at Great American Ball Park—a venue that’s historically friendly to hitters—this game has the ingredients for a 6–4 or 7–5 type finish.
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