Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 4, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Washington Nationals on Saturday at 11:05 AM ET at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. Pittsburgh is 44-44 and is fourth in the NL Central, while Washington is 45-43 and is fourth in the NL East. The Pirates split their previous four games against Philadelphia before opening this series, while the Nationals have won four of their last five games, including back-to-back victories over Boston. The season series is tied 2-2, making this an important matchup between two clubs trying to climb above .500. Cash a winning ticket with our free MLB picks.
Pittsburgh Pirates Looking to Stay in the Division Race
Pittsburgh has been one of the better offensive clubs in baseball this season, ranking third in MLB with a .260 batting average while scoring 452 runs. The Pirates have collected 794 hits, 111 home runs, a .338 on-base percentage, and a .421 slugging percentage through 88 games. Brandon Lowe leads the club with 20 home runs and 57 RBI, while Nick Gonzales is batting .305 with a team-high 93 hits. Bryan Reynolds owns a .395 on-base percentage, Ryan O'Hearn has added 13 home runs and 51 RBI, and Oneil Cruz has contributed 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases despite currently being on the injured list.
The Pirates have been solid on the mound, ranking 17th in MLB with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Pittsburgh has limited opponents to a .237 batting average while recording 812 strikeouts and allowing 318 walks. The staff has surrendered only 85 home runs, one of the better marks in the National League, allowing the Pirates to stay competitive even when the offense slows down.
Injuries: Wilber Dotel (15-Day IL), Jared Jones (7-Day IL), Chris Devenski (60-Day IL), Spencer Horwitz (10-Day IL), Oneil Cruz (10-Day IL).
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Washington Nationals Building Momentum
Washington has quietly put together a productive offensive season, batting .248 with 470 runs, 748 hits, and 117 home runs. The Nationals own a .321 on-base percentage and .426 slugging percentage, with James Wood leading the lineup with 22 home runs and 55 RBI while posting a .389 on-base percentage. CJ Abrams has driven in 60 runs with 18 home runs, Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .280 with 16 home runs and 59 RBI, and Keibert Ruiz is hitting .285. Washington has won four of its last five games while scoring 28 runs during its recent four victories.
Washington has struggled more on the mound, ranking 25th in MLB with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Nationals pitchers have allowed opponents to bat .256 while issuing 308 walks and recording 694 strikeouts. The staff has surrendered 123 home runs this season, and limiting Pittsburgh's power hitters will be one of the biggest challenges entering this matchup.
Injuries: Miles Mikolas (Suspension), Max Kranick (60-Day IL), Cade Cavalli (Suspension), Richard Lovelady (15-Day IL), Jake Irvin (15-Day IL).
Pitching Matchup
Pittsburgh Pirates – Braxton Ashcraft
Ashcraft has enjoyed an excellent season, posting an 8-3 record with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP across 102.2 innings. He has allowed 88 hits while striking out 115 batters and issuing only 23 walks, consistently working deep into games.
Washington Nationals – Zack Littell
Littell is 7-6 with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 80.0 innings. He has surrendered 83 hits and 22 home runs while recording 49 strikeouts, and keeping the ball in the park will be critical against Pittsburgh's lineup.
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Pick
- Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh has the advantage with the stronger lineup and the more reliable starting pitcher. The Pirates rank near the top of MLB in batting average and should create consistent scoring opportunities against Littell, who has allowed 22 home runs this season. Ashcraft has been one of Pittsburgh's most dependable starters, and his ability to limit walks should help neutralize Washington's improving offense. The Pirates have the better overall matchup and are the play to win.
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Over/Under Pick
- Over
Both offenses have produced solid numbers throughout the season, with Washington scoring 470 runs and Pittsburgh adding 452. The Nationals have scored at least six runs in four of their last five games, while the Pirates rank among the league leaders in batting average. Littell's 5.29 ERA and Washington's team ERA of 4.63 create favorable conditions for Pittsburgh, and the Nationals have enough power in the middle of the order to contribute offensively. The over is the play in this matchup.
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