San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction and Picks - October 1st, 2025
Use Code WWWC Major League Baseball Playoff action within the National League on Wednesday afternoon, and we have a San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction ready to go. The Padres went 90-72 during the regular season, but they were just 38-43 on the road. Chicago had a solid season, going 92-70 overall, including 50-31 here at Wrigley Field. These teams split the six regular-season games. Chicago won game one of this series 3-1. Read on to see our Padres vs Cubs prediction.
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Padres Look To Stave Off
The Padres are in must-win territory after dropping Game 1, 3–1, at Wrigley Field. They struck first with back-to-back doubles from Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts in the second inning, but the offense stalled from there, managing just four hits and no walks over the final seven frames. San Diego went 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position and stranded Bogaerts at third with no outs — a missed opportunity that loomed large. The core trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Luis Arraez combined to go 0-for-11, and the lineup failed to generate any sustained pressure against Chicago’s bullpen.
Nick Pivetta delivered a solid outing with nine strikeouts over five innings, but a pair of solo homers from Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly flipped the game in the fifth. The bullpen held until the eighth, when Nico Hoerner’s sac fly added insurance. Defensively, the Padres were clean, but the lack of offensive punch and inability to adjust to Chicago’s pitching mix left them chasing. Now they turn to Dylan Cease (8–12, 4.55 ERA), who’s had a volatile season. Cease posted a 3.12 ERA in September but struggled on the road all year — going just 1–9 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP away from Petco Park. He allowed seven hits in 5.2 innings against the Cubs back in April and has given up 4+ hits in 26 of his 32 starts.
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Game 2 demands urgency and execution. San Diego’s bullpen remains elite, but they’ll need length from Cease to avoid overexposure. The offense must wake up — especially against a Cubs staff that’s mixing matchups and leaning on lefty relievers. If the stars deliver and Cease keeps the ball in the yard, the Padres can force a Game 3. But the margin for error is razor-thin.
Pitching Carries Cubs In Game 1
The Cubs took control of the series with a composed, opportunistic win in Game 1, leaning on power and pitching to secure a 3–1 victory. After falling behind early, Chicago responded in the fifth with back-to-back solo shots from Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly — both making their postseason debuts. Nico Hoerner added a sacrifice fly in the eighth, and the Cubs finished with six hits, one walk, and just three runners left on base. They didn’t need to hit with runners in scoring position — the long ball and clean execution were enough to tilt the game.
Matthew Boyd lasted 4.1 innings, allowing four hits and one earned run, and the bullpen was lights out. Daniel Palencia earned the win with 1.2 scoreless innings, and Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Kittredge, and Brad Keller combined for three shutout frames with four strikeouts and no walks. For Game 2, Andrew Kittredge (4–3, 3.40 ERA) will serve as the opener, likely handing off to Shota Imanaga, who’s expected to cover bulk innings. Imanaga has allowed 3+ runs in six straight starts, including eight earned on nine hits in his final regular-season outing against the Mets. The Cubs will rely on bullpen depth and matchup flexibility to keep San Diego off balance.
With the bullpen rested, the lineup confident, and the crowd behind them, Chicago has the edge in momentum and matchup. If they get another clean outing from their pitching mix and continue to capitalize on mistakes, the Cubs can close out the series and punch their ticket to the NLDS. The formula is simple: power, pressure, and poise — and they’ve shown they can deliver all three.
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Pick
Padres vs Cubs Moneyline Pick
- Chicago -113 (4 Units)
The Cubs are in a prime spot to finish the job tonight, and Dylan Cease’s road record is the biggest reason why. Cease has been a liability away from Petco Park all season, going just 1–9 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. He’s allowed 4+ hits in 26 of 32 starts and has struggled to maintain command under pressure, especially in hostile environments. Wrigley Field amplifies that weakness — the crowd, the wind, and the Cubs’ aggressive early-count approach all tilt the matchup against him. San Diego’s offense already looked flat in Game 1, managing just four hits and going scoreless over the final seven innings. If Cease doesn’t get early run support or length, the Padres could be chasing again — and that’s where Chicago’s bullpen thrives.
On the other side, the Cubs are rolling. They’ve already shown they can win without hitting with runners in scoring position, thanks to timely power and clean execution. Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly went deep in Game 1, and Nico Hoerner continues to deliver in situational spots. Chicago’s bullpen is rested and versatile, with Andrew Kittredge likely opening and Shota Imanaga handling bulk innings. While Imanaga’s recent form has been shaky, the Cubs have the depth to mix matchups and keep San Diego off balance. With momentum, home field, and a pitching setup designed to exploit Cease’s volatility, Chicago has the edge to close out the series and punch their ticket to the NLDS. The value is real — and the setup favors the home team.
Padres vs Cubs Over/Under Pick
- Over 6.5 (5 Units)
Over 6.5 has value in a matchup featuring a volatile starter and a bullpen-heavy setup. Dylan Cease’s road ERA sits at 5.58, and he’s allowed 4+ hits in 26 of 32 starts — a profile that invites traffic and run production, especially in a high-pressure spot. On the other side, Chicago’s pitching plan leans on Andrew Kittredge as an opener and Shota Imanaga for bulk innings, but Imanaga has surrendered 3+ runs in six straight outings and was tagged for eight earned in his final regular-season start. With both teams capable of power and the Padres desperate to push tempo, this game sets up for early scoring and late bullpen exposure — a recipe that favors the over.
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