San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026

San Diego and Los Angeles have traded blowouts in the first two games of this series. The Dodgers won 7-0 Tuesday before the Padres answered with a 5-1 victory Wednesday. Thursday's pitching matchup is much closer than the moneyline suggests: Nick Pivetta carries a 3.30 ERA for San Diego, while Tyler Glasnow is at 3.46 for Los Angeles. The Dodgers are still priced around -174, leaving the Padres near +148 as a live divisional underdog.

Los Angeles is the better team by record, but a 97-61 mark does not erase the starting-pitcher parity. Pivetta has been good enough to keep San Diego in games, and the Padres have the bullpen quality and lineup power to win a close game if he reaches the sixth in good shape.

For the rest of Thursday's board, see our MLB picks and predictions coverage.

Best Available Odds for San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

• San Diego Padres +148 | Los Angeles Dodgers -174
• San Diego +1.5 (-155) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+128)
• Over 8 (-108) | Under 8 (-112)

Game Info

• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California
• Records: San Diego 88-70 | Los Angeles 97-61
• Probable Pitchers: Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.30 ERA) vs Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 3.46 ERA)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

The 7-0 and 5-1 results show how quickly this matchup can swing when one starter loses command. San Diego's response Wednesday is especially relevant because the Padres did not allow Tuesday's shutout to carry into the next game. They attacked early and prevented Los Angeles from building another comfortable script.

The Dodgers remain the stronger offense over a full season and have the home-field advantage, but the current price is asking bettors to pay for those advantages as though the starting-pitcher gap also favors Los Angeles. It does not. Pivetta's 3.30 ERA is slightly better than Glasnow's 3.46, making the underdog price more interesting than the raw records suggest.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Pivetta needs to keep Los Angeles from getting free baserunners ahead of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and the heart of the order. His path is not to overpower everyone; it is to avoid the walk-plus-homer sequence that turns a close game into a three-run deficit.

Glasnow has elite stuff and can make San Diego look overmatched when his command is sharp. The Padres need to force deep counts and make him work through the lineup rather than giving him seven-pitch innings. If they can reach the Dodgers bullpen by the sixth, the plus-money path improves.

Odds and Line Movement

Los Angeles opened around -169 and moved toward approximately -174 to -180, while San Diego remained available between +140 and +152. The Padres' price has therefore held in a range that still pays well for a game with near-even starter ERAs. The run-line protection is too expensive, so the moneyline is the cleaner underdog expression.

Our MLB betting trends page provides additional market context across the league.

What Decides This Game

San Diego cannot let the Dodgers score first in bunches. The best script is a 2-2 or 3-2 game through six, where bullpen execution and one late extra-base hit decide it. That environment gives the +148 ticket much more value than a game where the Padres are chasing four runs by the third inning.

Late-Inning Outlook

A close game benefits San Diego's price because the Padres are not laying anything for the final at-bat. Their bullpen can be deployed aggressively if Pivetta reaches the sixth with the score level. Los Angeles remains dangerous at every point in the order, but the Padres only need to win the late matchup once for a +148 ticket to cash.

Separate hitter and pitcher markets are covered in our MLB player props section.

Best Bet - San Diego Padres ML (+148)

San Diego +148 is the best bet. Pivetta's 3.30 ERA compares favorably with Glasnow's 3.46, and the Padres just showed they can win comfortably in this park. The Dodgers deserve to be favored because of overall team quality and home field, but the gap does not look large enough to justify the current price.

The main risk is Glasnow delivering a dominant strikeout performance. San Diego must make him work. At +148, the payoff is strong enough to accept that possibility.

Game Thesis: The starter matchup is close enough that San Diego's +148 return outweighs the Dodgers' broader team and home-field advantages.

Final Prediction

Prediction: San Diego Padres 4, Los Angeles Dodgers 3