San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 26, 2026

The San Diego Padres visit the Miami Marlins on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida. San Diego is 51-53 and sits third in the NL West, 15 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres snapped a two-game skid with a 4-2 victory over Miami on Friday and have gone 2-3 over their last five games. Miami is 52-52 and sits tied for third in the NL East, 9.5 games behind Atlanta. The Marlins have dropped 10 straight games but own a strong 31-21 record at home despite their recent slide. Cash in a winner with our free MLB picks.

San Diego Padres Offense Continues to Struggle

San Diego has struggled to produce offense consistently this season, batting .229 while scoring 430 runs with 784 hits, 116 home runs, a .307 on-base percentage, and a .382 slugging percentage. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with a .283 batting average, 114 hits, and 25 stolen bases, while Manny Machado has supplied 22 home runs and 60 RBIs. Ty France has added 16 home runs with a .279 batting average, and Jackson Merrill has contributed 14 home runs. The Padres generated enough timely offense to claim Friday's series opener and will look to build on that performance.

San Diego's pitching staff has posted a 4.23 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while holding opponents to a .248 batting average. The staff has recorded 848 strikeouts but has battled inconsistency throughout the season. Even so, the Padres limited Miami to two runs on Friday, showing the type of overall pitching performance they will need again in the series finale.

Injuries: Samad Taylor (10-Day IL), David Morgan (15-Day IL), Jeremiah Estrada (15-Day IL), Lucas Giolito (15-Day IL), Nick Pivetta (60-Day IL).

Miami Marlins Continue to Produce at the Plate

Miami has quietly developed one of the National League's better offenses, batting .251 while scoring 459 runs with 870 hits, 106 home runs, a .326 on-base percentage, and a .407 slugging percentage. Otto Lopez leads the lineup with a .330 batting average and 132 hits, while Liam Hicks has driven in 60 runs with 14 home runs. Heriberto Hernandez has added 14 home runs, Xavier Edwards owns a .373 on-base percentage, and Kyle Stowers has contributed 12 home runs. The Marlins have created consistent traffic on the bases even during their recent losing streak.

Miami has also received dependable work from its pitching staff, posting a 4.05 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .229 batting average. The Marlins have recorded 876 strikeouts and have generally kept games competitive throughout the season. Their pitching has remained one of the club's biggest strengths despite the recent five-game slide.

Injuries: William Kempner (15-Day IL), Josh Ekness (60-Day IL), Owen Caissie (10-Day IL), Max Meyer (15-Day IL), Anthony Bender (15-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

San Diego Padres – Walker Buehler

Buehler is 6-5 with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP across 94.2 innings. He has allowed 95 hits while striking out 84 batters and walking 40. The veteran right-hander will need better command against a Miami lineup that consistently puts runners on base.

Miami Marlins – Janson Junk

Junk enters with a 4-6 record, a 5.09 ERA, and a 1.35 WHIP over 69 innings. He has surrendered 73 hits while striking out 51 batters and allowing 11 home runs. Miami will look for Junk to keep San Diego's power hitters from producing another timely offensive performance.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Game Pick

• Miami Marlins

Miami owns the advantage with the stronger offense, a better overall pitching staff, and an excellent home record. The Marlins rank ahead of San Diego in batting average, runs scored, and team ERA, giving them a more balanced profile despite their recent losing streak. San Diego has struggled offensively for much of the season, and Miami has the pieces to respond after Friday's defeat. The Marlins are the play to earn a home victory.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Over/Under Pick

• Over

Both starting pitchers carry ERAs above 5.00, creating favorable conditions for offense. Miami ranks among the National League's better hitting teams with a .251 batting average, while San Diego features experienced hitters such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Ty France who can capitalize on mistakes. With two starters who have allowed their share of baserunners and home runs, this matchup will cash above the total.