San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s the finale of an early week series between National League foes fighting for playoff position on the diamond in the Big Apple when the San Diego Padres travel to take on the New York Mets Thursday afternoon, and we break it down for you with our Padres vs. Mets prediction. In the opening game of the series Tuesday night, the Mets drew first blood with an 8-3 triumph. Will San Diego earn the win on getaway day or can the Mets prevail at home? This article was published prior to the conclusion of the middle game of the set at Citi Field on Wednesday night. Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks! Read more about this Padres vs. Mets prediction!
Padres Trying to Battle for NL West Top Spot
San Diego had their two-game win streak snapped as they were downed in the opening game of this series Tuesday night. The Padres entered Wednesday 82-69 and stood second in the NL West, two games behind the Dodgers for the top spot. They held the second wild card spot in the National League playoff picture, 5.5 games clear of the Diamondbacks, to remain in a playoff spot. Against New York on Tuesday, San Diego finished with seven hits as Jackson Merrill (run, RBI) was the lone player with two. Merrill (his 14th), Jake Cronenworth (his 11th) and Freddy Fermin (his fifth) each went deep in the loss for the Padres. Michael King (4-3) took the loss as he allowed eight runs on 10 hits with no walks and two strikeouts over three innings of work.
Randy Vasquez is on the mound for the Padres in the opening game of this set as he makes his 26th appearance, 25th start, of the season. He is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA, a 1.346 WHIP, 49 walks and 71 strikeouts over 123.1 innings of work on the year. Vasquez earned the win in his last start, which came Thursday at home against the Rockies. He threw six innings, allowing no runs on four hits with no walks and nine strikeouts in a game the Padres won 2-0. In his last three starts, Vasquez is 2-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, one walk and 16 strikeouts over 15.2 innings of work. Vasquez, in his 57th career major league appearance and 50th start, pitches against the Mets for the first time here. As a result, this marks his first career outing at Citi Field.
Mets Trying to Maintain Final Wild Card Spot In NL Playoff Chase
New York won their second straight after an eight-game slide as they used the power game to take the opening game of this series on Tuesday. The Mets entered Wednesday 78-73 and were second in the NL East, 12.5 games behind the Phillies for the top spot. They held the final wild card spot in the NL playoff picture by 1.5 games over the Diamondbacks. Against San Diego Tuesday night, New York finished with 10 hits as Francisco Lindor (two runs, RBI), Pete Alonso (two runs, RBI) and Brandon Nimmo (run, RBI) each had two. Lindor (his 27th), Cedric Mullins (his 17th), Brett Baty (his 17th) and Alonso (his 35th) all went deep in the contest. Clay Holmes threw four innings, allowing two runs on three hits with one walk and two strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Sean Manaea (2-3) earned the win as he threw five innings, allowing one run on four hits with no walks and four strikeouts.
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The Mets send top prospect Jonah Tong to the mound for his fourth start in this contest. He is 1-2 with an 8.49 ERA, a 1.714 WHIP, seven walks and 13 strikeouts over 11.2 innings of work. Tong took the loss in his last start, which came against the Rangers at home Friday night. He threw just two-thirds of an inning, allowing six runs on four hits with three walks and one strikeout in an 8-3 Mets loss. Tong, in his fourth career major league start, pitches against the Padres for the first time. He makes his third career start at Citi Field in this contest. Tong is 1-1 with an 11.12 ERA, a 2.294 WHIP, three walks and seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings of work in those outings. Prior to being called up, Tong made 22 starts in the minors this season: 20 with Double-A Binghamton of the Eastern League and two with Triple-A Syracuse of the International League. He is 10-5 with a 1.43 ERA, a 0.924 WHIP, 47 walks and 179 strikeouts over 113.2 innings of work on the year. Tong, in 57 career minor league appearances, 53 starts, is 16-11 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.114 WHIP, 116 walks and 377 strikeouts over 247.2 innings of work.
Padres vs. Mets Pick
Moneyline Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- Padres (4 units)
While New York took the opening game of the series, it’s hard to overlook that the team has been one of the worst in the majors since mid-June. It’s tough to have faith in a team that has played dismal baseball for three months. Throw in that Tong was lit up in his last start at home and it’s tough to back a young guy in the midst of a pennant race. Vasquez won his last two starts and the Padres have a deep bullpen to rely on should he falter. The Mets have ground their key relievers into the dirt and they have been inconsistent at best at the plate in the last three months. With Tong getting rattled, give the edge to the Padres in this contest.
Over/Under Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- Over (4 units)
San Diego entered Wednesday 22nd in the majors with 4.26 runs per game while they allow an average of 3.88 runs per contest. That gives the Padres an average total of 8.14 runs a contest. They are averaging 4.17 runs per game on the road while allowing an average of 4.30 runs per game, giving them an average total of 8.47 runs per game away from Petco Park. San Diego has seen the under post an 81-64-9 mark in their 154 games on the year. The Mets are 11th in runs per game with 4.72 runs a night, a number that bumps up to 4.93 runs per game at home entering Thursday. New York has an average total of 9.09 runs per game and that stays flat at 9.09 runs per game at Citi Field. The Mets entered Wednesday having seen the under post a 72-71-8 mark in their opening 151 games of the year.
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