San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Tuesday, the San Diego Padres will play the New York Mets at Citi Field, and we have you ready to go with our Padres vs. Mets prediction. First pitch from Queens is at 7:10 p.m. ET.
The Padres are slight favorites, and the game total is 8.5 runs scored.
San Diego and New York met earlier this season at Petco Park, a series the Padres swept. The ballclubs have split their last ten matchups, and the under was 6-4 in those games. If you want the Padres vs. Mets prediction, read on and check out our MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks!
Padres are contending for a division title
San Diego (82-68 SU, 83-67 RL, and 63-81-6 O/U) won three of four against Colorado in its previous series. The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games (the under was 7-3).
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SD will hand the baseball to right-hander Michael King on Tuesday against New York. In his last outing (5.0 IP no-decision vs Cincinnati), the 30-year-old surrendered two runs on three hits, giving up two homers. It was King's first outing since August 9 and just his second since May 18, as he's battled shoulder and knee injuries. He is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts (62.2 IP), including 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in three road starts (17.1 IP).
San Diego was off to a hot start to the second half of this season, briefly overaking the Dodgers for the lead position in the division race. The Friars are only 2.5 games out of first in the NL West, but it may take a series sweep or two to take back the lead from LA. San Diego has played well in front of its home crowd (47-28 record), but is 35-40 on the road. Can the Padres play consistently enough to make a deep run in the 2025 MLB postseason?
San Diego Padres Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries for Tuesday's game against the Mets.
New York needs to find its footing fast
New York (77-73 SU, 71-79 RL, and 70-72-8 O/U) lost two of three games to Texas in its previous series. The Mets are 2-8 in their last ten games (the under went 5-4-1).
New York will start righty Clay Holmes on Tuesday against San Diego. In his previous appearance (4.0 IP loss to Philadelphia), the 32-year-old allowed four runs on six hits and three walks. He is 11-8 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 29 starts (151.0 IP) this year, including 5-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 14 home starts (75.1 IP).
The Mets have dropped like a lead balloon since August, losing 26 of their 41 games. They have fallen 12 games back of Philly in the National League East title race and lead San Francisco by just 1.5 games for the last NL Wild Card spot. With only 12 regular-season games remaining on its schedule, New York has to rediscover its magic to hold off the Giants and earn a trip to the playoffs.
New York Mets Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries for Tuesday's game against the Padres.
Padres vs. Mets Pick
Moneyline Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- San Diego ML (5 Units)
The Padres fared well against Holmes earlier this season, chasing him from the game in the fourth inning after scoring four runs on eight hits and two walks. I believe they'll have similar success against the Mets' starter tomorrow, as they enter Tuesday's matchup with momentum, which the home team sorely lacks. King has also pitched well against the Mets, holding current NY hitters to a .213 BA (54 plate appearances) with a 2.12 career ERA against them (six outings). With a superior bullpen (lowest ERA in MLB), SD has a significant pitching edge in tomorrow's series opener. Bet on the visitors to win straight-up!
Over/Under Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- Under 8.5 (5 Units)
After a day off, both teams will be well-rested and ready to compete. This is one of the final series of the season, and both need to win as many games as possible. While San Diego has an advantage on the mound, I doubt they will score a lot of runs (23rd in road scoring this season). With New York struggling to put runs on the scoreboard (4.1 runs per game this month) and facing an ace and an elite bullpen, the under is in play with the total set at 8.5 runs scored.
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