San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Prediction and Picks - September 17, 2025
Use Code WWWC Wednesday night on the MLB diamond, and we have a San Diego Padres vs New York Mets prediction ready to roll. The Padres currently own the 2nd wildcard slot with an 82-69 record, while the Mets have the 3rd slot in the Wildcard standings with a 78-73 record. The Mets took game one by a score of 8-3, but the Padres still lead the season series 3-1. Continue reading to see our Padres vs Mets prediction.
Need some winners this baseball season? Check out our Free MLB Picks.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Padres Looking To Bounce Back
San Diego dropped Game 1 of this playoff-tilted series 8–3, undone by a disastrous first inning and a rare off-night from Michael King. The right-hander gave up eight runs on 10 hits over just three innings, including four home runs—tying a career worst. Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Freddy Fermin each homered to provide the Padres’ only offense, but the lineup failed to generate sustained pressure and left five runners on base. The loss snapped a two-game win streak and trimmed their lead over the Mets to five games in the Wild Card standings. With the Dodgers still within reach in the NL West, San Diego can’t afford another misstep.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
At 82–69, the Padres sit 2.5 games behind Los Angeles in the division and hold the second Wild Card spot by a four-game margin. They’ve gone 6-4 over their last ten and rank top-five in MLB in home runs, slugging, and OPS. Manny Machado leads the team with 25 homers and 88 RBIs, while Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez continue to set the table with high-contact profiles. The Padres are 35–41 on the road but have won 11 of their last 16 away games, showing improved situational hitting and sharper bullpen execution. With the Mets gaining ground, Wednesday’s game is a must-win to preserve their cushion and keep pressure on the Dodgers.
Nick Pivetta takes the mound, bringing a 13–5 record and a 2.73 ERA across 168.2 innings. He’s been dominant in September, allowing just three earned runs over his last 19 innings and striking out 24. Pivetta’s fastball-curveball mix has generated a 30.2% whiff rate, and he’s held opponents to a .212 average on the road. He’s also posted a 2.11 ERA in night games and has allowed just one home run over his last five starts. Against a Mets lineup that exploded for four homers on Tuesday, Pivetta’s ability to change speeds and work the edges will be key. If he can keep the ball in the park and avoid early damage, San Diego has the arms and bats to even the series.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Mets Grab A Much-Needed Win
The Mets opened this crucial series with an emphatic 8–3 win, jumping out to a five-run lead in the first inning and never looking back. Brett Baty capped the opening frame with a two-run homer, while Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Cedric Mullins each added solo shots to power the offense. Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea combined for nine innings in a piggyback setup, with Manaea earning the win after allowing just one run over five innings. The Mets racked up 10 hits and struck out only twice, showing sharp plate discipline and capitalizing on Michael King’s command issues. The win marked their second straight and kept them in control of the final NL Wild Card spot.
At 78–73, the Mets hold a 1.5-game lead over Arizona and sit five games behind San Diego in the Wild Card race. With just 11 games remaining, every win is critical, and Tuesday’s performance was a statement. The lineup has been streaky, but Alonso and Juan Soto have now become the first Mets teammates to hit 35+ homers in the same season since Beltrán and Delgado in 2006. The bullpen has stabilized after a rough August, and the team is 47–29 at home, giving them a strong edge at Citi Field. If they can continue to produce early offense and avoid late-game collapses, they’ll be in position to hold off the pack and punch their postseason ticket.
David Peterson gets the start, entering with a 9–5 record and a 3.77 ERA across 142.2 innings. He’s been reliable at home, posting a 3.21 ERA at Citi Field and holding opponents to a .238 average. Peterson mixes a sinker-slider combo that’s generated a 48% ground ball rate, and he’s allowed just one home run over his last four starts. His biggest challenge will be navigating the top of San Diego’s order, especially against right-handed power bats like Machado and Tatis. If Peterson can get through six clean innings and avoid traffic in the middle frames, the Mets’ bullpen is rested and capable of closing out another win.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Pick
Padres vs Mets Moneyline Pick
- San Diego -110 (4 Units)
San Diego enters Wednesday’s matchup with a clear edge on the mound and a strong bounce-back profile after Tuesday’s 8–3 loss. Nick Pivetta has been dominant in September, posting a 2.73 ERA and allowing just three earned runs over his last 19 innings. His fastball-curveball mix has generated a 30% whiff rate, and he’s held opponents to a .212 average on the road. Against a Mets lineup that exploded for four homers in Game 1, Pivetta’s ability to change speeds and work the edges will be key. The Padres have won 11 of their last 16 road games and are 5–2 in Pivetta’s last seven starts, showing they can respond quickly when their ace is on the hill.
Offensively, San Diego has the depth to pressure David Peterson early. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for 47 home runs and 176 RBIs, while Luis Arraez continues to lead the team in batting average and on-base percentage. The Padres rank third in MLB in team ERA and have converted 74% of save chances, giving them a reliable late-game edge if they grab an early lead. With the Mets' bullpen stretched and Peterson allowing a .251 average to opponents, San Diego has the matchup leverage to flip the script and protect its Wild Card cushion. Expect a sharper start, cleaner execution, and a focused effort from a team built to win behind elite pitching.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Padres vs Mets Over/Under Pick
- Under 8 (5 Units)
This matchup sets up well for the Under 8, with two in-form starters and playoff tension likely to suppress offensive rhythm. Nick Pivetta has allowed just three earned runs over his last 19 innings and owns a 2.11 ERA in night games, while David Peterson has held opponents to a .238 average at home and has given up only one homer in his last four starts. Both teams have hit the under in six of their last ten games, and San Diego’s bullpen ranks third in MLB in ERA, giving them a reliable late-game anchor. With postseason stakes tightening every pitch and both lineups prone to cold stretches, this one profiles as a low-scoring duel that stays under the number.
Never Tried Winners and Whiners? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code DOLLAR
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
- Check out more MLB predictions
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
