San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026

The San Francisco Giants visit the New York Mets on Saturday at Citi Field, with the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET, televised on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. San Francisco is 58-83, fourth in the NL West and 16 games behind the final Wild Card position. The Giants are 3-2 over their last five after losing 5-2 at Pittsburgh on Thursday. New York is 63-77, fifth in the NL East and 10.5 games behind the final Wild Card spot. The Mets are also 3-2 over their last five, most recently beating Tampa Bay 10-4. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.

San Francisco Giants Need More Consistent Scoring

San Francisco ranks 10th in MLB with a .248 batting average, but the Giants have scored only 584 runs through 140 games. Rafael Devers remains the main power source with 32 home runs, 83 RBI and an .831 OPS. Jung Hoo Lee leads the regular lineup with a .283 average and has recorded 138 hits, while Casey Schmitt has added 21 home runs and 55 RBI. San Francisco scored 31 runs during its recent five-game stretch, including 12 in Tuesday’s loss at Pittsburgh.

Pitching has been a larger problem, with San Francisco ranked 23rd in MLB with a 4.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Opponents are batting .249 against the Giants, who have a minus-73 run differential and a 25-47 road record. San Francisco has split its last 10 games, but the club remains well outside the Wild Card race. The Giants have allowed at least four runs in three straight games, including 13 against Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

Injuries: Marcelo Mayer, JT Brubaker, Victor Bericoto, Matt Gage and Willy Adames are on the injured list.

New York Mets Seek Better Results at Citi Field

New York is batting .236 with a .306 on-base percentage and .389 slugging percentage. Juan Soto has produced the best power numbers with 23 home runs while batting .281 with a .402 on-base percentage and .944 OPS. Bo Bichette has 144 hits, 14 home runs and a team-high 66 RBI. Carson Benge leads the Mets with a .278 batting average and has contributed 16 home runs, 54 RBI and 19 stolen bases.

The Mets rank 13th in MLB pitching with a 4.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, stronger numbers than San Francisco has posted on the mound. New York is 32-39 at home and has a minus-50 run differential, so Citi Field has not produced a major advantage this season. The Mets have alternated wins and losses across their last five games, scoring 10 runs Wednesday after being held to two in Tuesday’s loss to Tampa Bay.

Injuries: Cionel Perez, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, Reed Garrett and Tylor Megill are on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup

San Francisco Giants - Anthony Molina

Anthony Molina is 2-0 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through 14.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 13 hits and only two walks while recording nine strikeouts. Molina has surrendered two home runs during his limited workload, and the small innings total means his season numbers are much smaller than those of Thornton.

New York Mets - Zac Thornton

Zac Thornton is 3-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 61.1 innings. The left-hander has allowed 57 hits, 14 walks and seven home runs while striking out 45. Thornton has permitted fewer than one hit per inning and has kept his ERA below 3.00 through a considerably larger workload than Molina.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Game Pick

• New York Mets

New York has the stronger starting pitching profile for this matchup, with Zac Thornton posting a 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 61.1 innings. San Francisco starter Anthony Molina has worked only 14.1 innings, while the Giants are 25-47 away and have a minus-73 run differential. The Mets are only 32-39 at Citi Field, but their pitching staff owns a better 4.09 ERA than San Francisco’s 4.38 mark. With Thornton offering the steadier starter on the mound, New York is the pick Saturday afternoon at home.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Over/Under Pick

• Under

The case for Under starts with Thornton’s 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, along with a Mets offense that ranks 25th in MLB batting average at .236. New York has scored 577 runs, while San Francisco has scored 584 through 140 games. The Giants have also posted a .309 on-base percentage, limiting their ability to build sustained scoring innings. Molina’s sample is short, but his 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are solid. With neither lineup ranking among MLB’s highest-scoring teams, under is the pick here.