Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for ALCS, Game 1, Sunday, October 12, 2025
Use Code WWWC The regular season is in the rearview mirror, and the postseason brings a clash between a pair of squads looking to reach the World Series as the Seattle Mariners take on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of their best-of-seven AL Championship Series Sunday night, and we have you covered with our Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction. Seattle advanced as they outlasted Detroit 3-2 in 15 innings at home in Game 5 of their AL Division Series Friday night. Toronto knocked out the Yankees in their AL Division Series, taking Game 4 by a 5-2 score on the road Wednesday night. In the regular season series, the Blue Jays owned a 4-2 advantage, including a three-game sweep at T-Mobile Park in the most recent series, May 9-11. Read more about this Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction! Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks!
Seattle Hoping Momentum Travels Well
Seattle managed to eliminate Detroit in the longest winner take all playoff game in major league history Friday night to punch their ticket to the AL Championship Series. It marks the first trip for the Mariners to the ALCS since the 2001 squad that won 116 games, which jhncurrent manager Dan Wilson was a part of. In Game 5 against Detroit, Seattle finished with eight hits as Josh Naylor (run) led the team with three. The Mariners overcame going two of 11 with runners in scoring position, left 12 men on base and struck out 20 times in the contest. Jorge Polanco knocked in the winning run in the bottom of the 15th inning to walk it off. George Kirby threw five innings, allowing one run on three hits with no walks and six strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Luis Castillo (1-0), the Mariners’ seventh pitcher, earned the win with 1.1 scoreless innings of relief, allowing no hits or walks while striking out one.
The Mariners have not officially named a starter for this contest but Jerry DiPoto said that the expectation is that it will be “Bryce Miller and friends” in the opener. This would mark his second start of the postseason after logging 18 regular-season starts for Seattle. Miller was 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA, a 1.406 WHIP, 34 walks and 74 strikeouts over 90.1 innings of work in the regular season. In the postseason, he has no record with a 4.15 ERA, a 0.923 WHIP, no walks and two strikeouts. Miller didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Wednesday against the Tigers in Game 4 of the AL Division Series on the road. He threw 4.1 innings, allowing two runs on four hits with no walks and two strikeouts in a game the Mariners eventually dropped 9-3. In his last three starts, Miller is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, three walks and eight strikeouts over 14 innings of work. Miller makes his third career start against the Blue Jays in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA, a 1.452 WHIP, four walks and nine strikeouts over 10.2 innings of work against them. Miller, after 74 regular-season starts and in his second career postseason start, pitches at Rogers Centre for the first time here.
Blue Jays Look to Keep Good Times Rolling
Toronto won for the seventh time in eight games dating back to the final week of the regular season, eliminating the Yankees by taking Game 4 of their AL Division Series in the House that Ruth Built Wednesday night. The Blue Jays now try to stay hot as they chase their first World Series berth since 1993. Against New York in Game 4, Toronto rapped out a dozen hits as Addison Barger had three while Ernie Clement (two runs) and Nathan Lukes (two RBI) each added a pair. The Blue Jays could have done more damage had they been better than three of 17 with runners in scoring position with nine runners left on base. Louis Varland threw 1.1 scoreless innings, allowing one hit with no walks and two strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Seranthony Dominguez (1-0) earned the win as he tossed 1.2 scoreless innings, allowing no hits with one walk and no strikeouts. Jeff Hoffman threw 1.1 innings, allowing one run on two hits with one walk and one strikeout, to earn his first save of the playoffs.
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Kevin Gausman is on the bump for the Blue Jays as he makes his second start of the postseason in this contest after 32 regular-season starts. He was 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA, a 1.062 WHIP, 50 walks and 189 strikeouts over 193 innings of work in the regular season. In the postseason, he is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA, a 1.059 WHIP, two walks and three strikeouts. Gausman earned the win in his last start, which came against the Yankees at home in Game 1 of their AL Division Series Saturday. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing one run on four hits with two walks and three strikeouts, in a 10-1 Blue Jays victory. In his last three starts, Gausman is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, five walks and 15 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. Gausman makes his 13th career appearance, 12th start, against the Mariners in this contest. He is 2-4 with a 2.94 ERA, a 1.137 WHIP, 13 walks and 74 strikeouts over 70.1 innings in those outings. Gausman is 24-25 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.268 WHIP, 116 walks and 458 strikeouts over 430.2 innings of work in 77 career appearances, 74 starts, at Rogers Centre.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
- Blue Jays -159 (4 units)
Toronto, for the second straight round, has the rest advantage as they put the Yankees away on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Seattle not only went to Game 5 Friday night, but needed 15 innings and had to use starters Logan Gilbert and Castillo to get out of the game with the win. Miller is going on three days’ rest after throwing 55 pitches in Game 4 and one has to wonder how much he’ll have in the tank. For that matter, one has to be concerned about who the Mariners can lean on their bullpen after using their high-leverage arms regularly in the AL Division Series, including Game 5 on Friday night. Toronto takes advantage and picks up a victory to draw first blood in the set.
Over/Under Pick for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
- Over 7.5 (4 units)
Seattle has seen the over go 91-70-6 in their first 167 games of the year entering Friday night. The Mariners are 10th in the majors with 4.70 runs per game, a number that climbs to 5.12 runs per game on the road. They have an average total of 8.98 runs per game and that number rockets to 9.96 runs per game as the visiting team. Toronto has seen the over post an 89-72-5 mark on the year entering Sunday night. The Blue Jays are 3rd in the majors with 5.01 runs per game and that number edges up to 5.47 runs per game at Rogers Centre. Toronto has an average total of 9.47 runs per game but that number climbs to 9.63 runs per game at home. With the way the Blue Jays have been swinging the bats in the postseason, coupled with a tired Seattle pitching staff, this game winds up over the number.
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