St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday September 23 2026

Pittsburgh took Tuesday's opener 2-0 and now gets a more settled pitching matchup for Wednesday than the early market originally showed. Lake Bachar is confirmed for the Pirates with a 3.56 ERA, while St. Louis turns to Matthew Liberatore at 5.36. Pittsburgh is only a modest home favorite near -116, which is a more attractive price than the earlier -130 range. With the starter uncertainty removed, the Pirates have enough of an early-game advantage to justify backing them outright rather than laying runs.

The rest of Wednesday's matchups are available in our MLB picks and predictions coverage.

Best Available Odds for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

• Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals -102 | Pittsburgh Pirates -116
• Run Line/Spread: St. Louis -1.5 (+168) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-205)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-104)

Game Info

• Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EDT
• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• TV: SportsNet PT and Cardinals.TV
• Records: St. Louis 76-81 | Pittsburgh 80-77
• Probable Pitchers: Matthew Liberatore (5-14, 5.36 ERA) vs Lake Bachar (1-4, 3.56 ERA)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

Liberatore's 5.36 ERA puts pressure on St. Louis to score early because Pittsburgh does not need a huge offensive night if Bachar is competent. The Cardinals have stretches where they handle left-right matchups well, but a road team with a struggling starter cannot afford wasted opportunities. St. Louis must get traffic at the top of the order and turn it into runs before Bachar settles into a rhythm.

Bachar's record is only 1-4, yet his 3.56 ERA gives Pittsburgh the more trustworthy run-prevention profile. The Pirates do not need him to dominate. Five controlled innings would be enough to push the matchup toward their bullpen and home-field advantage. Tuesday's shutout also shows that Pittsburgh can win this series without forcing the offense into an aggressive game plan.

Odds and Line Movement

The market moved in a useful direction for Pittsburgh bettors. Early prices had the Pirates closer to the -120 to -134 range, while the later board showed approximately -116. That cheaper number arrived after the starter was confirmed, making the moneyline more attractive rather than less. St. Louis sits just below even money, and the 7.5 total reflects a matchup where neither lineup is expected to create constant pressure.

For broader price history and matchup patterns, see our MLB betting trends coverage.

What Decides This Game

Liberatore has to keep the ball in the park and avoid long innings. Pittsburgh is not an offense that should automatically overwhelm him, but free baserunners will turn a manageable matchup into a problem quickly. For the Pirates, Bachar's command matters more than strikeout volume; forcing St. Louis to earn its baserunners keeps the home side in control.

For separate hitter and pitcher markets, visit our MLB player props coverage.

Late-Inning Outlook

A tie game after six innings still favors Pittsburgh slightly because of the final at-bat and the ability to deploy the bullpen without first protecting a road lead. St. Louis can flip that edge by forcing Bachar out early and creating a middle-inning relief matchup before Pittsburgh reaches its preferred late arms.

Matchup Detail

The early version of this game was difficult to price because Pittsburgh's starter was unresolved. With Bachar confirmed, the matchup becomes cleaner. His ERA advantage over Liberatore is meaningful, and the Pirates are not being asked to cover a large favorite's tax on the moneyline.

Price Discipline

Pittsburgh becomes more attractive because the later market is cheaper than the early one. A move from the low -130s toward -116 matters in a matchup that still projects as competitive. Bachar's confirmation removes one uncertainty, but it does not turn the Pirates into a dominant favorite. The wager works because the starter edge and home field can be bought at a modest price. If Pittsburgh moves back toward -140, the margin between fair value and market cost becomes much thinner.

Best Bet - Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-116)

Pittsburgh -116 is the preferred wager. The Pirates have the better starter ERA, home field and the momentum of a 2-0 series-opening win, while the price remains close to a coin flip. That is enough to support the home side without requiring a run-line margin.

The concern is that St. Louis has enough offensive upside to punish Bachar if his command slips. A modest moneyline price is important because this still projects as a competitive game rather than a mismatch.

Game Thesis: The best wager is Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-116). The projected final is Pittsburgh Pirates 4, St. Louis Cardinals 2.

Final Prediction

Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 4, St. Louis Cardinals 2