Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 23 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Sunday at 1:35 PM ET. Tampa Bay is 76-52 and leads the AL East by three games over the Yankees despite losing 5-3 to Baltimore on Friday. The Rays have dropped three of their last four. Baltimore is 62-67 and fifth in the AL East after Friday’s victory, with the Orioles two games behind the final American League Wild Card position. Sunday’s starting pitchers provide an interesting betting matchup in our free MLB picks.

Tampa Bay Rays Look to Protect AL East Lead

Tampa Bay continues to own MLB’s best batting average at .261 while posting a .330 on-base percentage and .406 slugging percentage. The Rays have scored 582 runs with 134 home runs and have been productive without depending entirely on power. Junior Caminero leads Tampa Bay with 35 home runs and 81 RBI while batting .276. Yandy Diaz is hitting .305 with a team-high .374 on-base percentage, while Chandler Simpson leads the club with a .308 average and has stolen 35 bases.

Recent results have been less convincing. Tampa Bay lost 5-3 in Friday’s series opener after dropping two of three against Toronto, leaving the Rays 2-3 over their last five. The pitching staff remains a major strength with a 3.87 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .234 opponent batting average. Tampa Bay is 33-29 away from home and needs to regain consistency with the Yankees remaining close in the division race.

Injuries: Manuel Rodriguez (60-Day IL), Cole Sulser (15-Day IL), Griffin Jax (15-Day IL), Jake Fraley (60-Day IL), Jonathan Heasley (60-Day IL).

Baltimore Orioles Try to Build on Recent Victory

Baltimore ended a four-game losing streak by beating Tampa Bay 5-3 on Friday. The Orioles had scored only 11 runs during the previous four games, including one run in losses to the Yankees on Monday and Thursday. Baltimore is batting .236 with a .319 on-base percentage and .397 slugging percentage. The Orioles have hit 157 home runs, giving the lineup more power than Tampa Bay despite the considerable difference in batting average.

Pete Alonso has been Baltimore’s leading run producer, batting .271 with 30 home runs, 85 RBI and an .865 OPS. Gunnar Henderson has 20 homers and 51 RBI, while Taylor Ward owns a team-high .383 on-base percentage. The Orioles are 33-33 at home but need more from a pitching staff with a 4.22 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Baltimore has allowed opponents to bat .254 and has surrendered 137 home runs.

Injuries: Blaze Alexander (10-Day IL), Felix Bautista (60-Day IL), Ryan Helsley (60-Day IL), Ryan Mountcastle (60-Day IL), Jordan Westburg (60-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

Tampa Bay Rays – Nick Martinez

Martinez is 12-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 141.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 139 hits, 22 walks, and 17 home runs while striking out 83. Martinez has shown excellent control, with his low walk total helping him maintain a strong WHIP despite allowing nearly one hit per inning.

Baltimore Orioles – Shane Baz

Baz is 4-13 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 145.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 147 hits, 49 walks, and 11 home runs while recording 132 strikeouts. Baz has produced considerably more strikeouts than Martinez, but the additional hits and walks have resulted in the higher ERA and WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Game Pick

• Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay has the stronger overall profile and a clear advantage in the starting pitching numbers. Martinez owns a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP compared with Baz’s 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, while the Rays also have the better team pitching numbers. Tampa Bay leads MLB with a .261 batting average, and Caminero, Diaz and Simpson give the lineup several ways to generate offense. Baltimore won Friday, but its recent offensive struggles remain a concern. The Rays are the play Sunday.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Over/Under Pick

• Under

The under gets the call with Martinez capable of limiting baserunners and Baltimore struggling to score consistently. The Orioles have produced 14 runs across their last five games, scoring three or fewer in four of them. Tampa Bay has also been held to five runs or fewer in three of its last four contests. Martinez enters with a 3.05 ERA and only 22 walks over 141.2 innings, while Baz has allowed just 11 home runs. Those pitching numbers will help the total cash under Sunday.