Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 12th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Tampa Bay Rays (72-74, 72-74 RL, 63-73-9 O/U) and the Chicago Cubs (83-63, 66-80 RL, 65-70-11 O/U) begin a three-game series on Friday afternoon, and we have the details and prediction. The Rays are sending Shane Baz to the mound. The Cubs will reply with Matt Boyd. The Rays went 2-1 against the Cubs last season.
Can the Cubs' home dominance continue on Friday afternoon? Check out the Cubs vs. Rays prediction. Nobody does it better when it comes to MLB Picks!
Baz Seeks 10th Win of Season
The Rays are opting with Shane Baz to begin the series. Baz was on his game in his recent outing, holding Cleveland to just two runs in five innings, resulting in a no-decision in a clash Tampa Bay dropped. The young righty is having a disappointing season but has conceded just two runs in 11 innings this month. Baz has recorded a 4.94 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, accompanied by a 9-11 record in 155 innings of work on the year. This is his first career meeting against Chicago.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been in contention for the wildcard most of the season, but simply have too many teams ahead of them with not enough time. They are 5.5 games out. This is a competitive group. The Rays were dealt three defeats in four meetings against the Guardians last weekend to put a dent in their chances. The squad dropped two of three road meetings against the White Sox this week. The Rays are 34-38 on the road.
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Jonathan Aranda remains on the IL and is not expected back for this series. Yandy Diaz has been a tough out, posting a sharp .990 OPS in September. The veteran first baseman is having another outstanding season, bashing 23 home runs with 78 RBIs. Chris Morel is having a disappointing season, amassing only 10 home runs with 24 RBIs and a .692 OPS. He has one RBI this month. Josh Lowe has six RBIs in his past 10 games. The veteran outfielder has 11 homers with 39 RBIs. Tampa Bay has a star in Junior Caminero. The 22-year-old slugger has posted 11 RBIs this month and has 42 bombs with 105 RBIs on the year.
Tampa Bay is averaging 4.51 runs per game, ranking them 15th. The pitching staff has issued a 3.88 ERA, placing them 11th.
Cubs Remain in 1st Wildcard Spot
Matt Boyd is on the rubber for the Cubs to begin the series. Boyd was outstanding in his recent effort, conceding only two runs in seven innings pitched against the Nationals, but he had no help and was hit with the loss. The veteran southpaw was shaky last month but is having one of the best seasons of his career, registering a 2.92 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 12-8 record in 166.1 innings pitched. Boyd has a 3.75 ERA and a 1-1 record in 24 career innings against Tampa Bay.
The Chicago Cubs are hoping to reach 90 wins. The Cubs have been inconsistent recently. They dropped a home series against the Nationals last week and rebounded by winning two of three against the Braves this week, scoring 10 runs. The Cubs are 5.5 games behind the Brewers at the top of the division. They stand in the 1st wildcard spot, two games ahead of the Padres. The Cubs stand at 44-28 at home.
Michael Busch is in a slump, recording a .259 OPS this month. The 27-year-old first baseman has outstanding numbers, clubbing 26 homers with 76 RBIs. Kyle Tucker has broken out of a slump that plagued him most of August. The 28-year-old slugger has 22 homers with 73 RBIs. Nico Horner is reaching base consistently and has netted a .940 OPS this month. The veteran second baseman is steady, recording 56 RBIs and a .733 OPS. Seiya Suzuki managed one RBI against the Rays last season. The 31-year-old has 27 big flies with 91 RBIs and a .785 OPS on the season.
Chicago is scoring an average of 4.88 runs on the year, marking them seventh. The pitching is strong, reporting a 3.86 ERA, good for 10th.
Rays vs. Cubs Pick
Spread Pick for Rays vs. Cubs
- Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
The Tampa Bay Rays have been strong on the road, where they are 4-2 in their past six games. The Chicago Cubs have all but secured a wildcard spot and are out of contention in the division, considering they are 5.5 games back. The Cubs have been shaky, dropping three of their past five games, including a series defeat against the Nationals.
Furthermore, Rays pitcher Shane Baz has been sharp, conceding only two runs in his past two outings spanning 11 innings against Seattle and Cleveland. Cubs pitcher Matt Boyd has great numbers on the season, but recorded a weak 4.54 ERA last month. Also, three of the Rays’ past four defeats have been by just one run.
Over/Under Pick for Rays vs. Cubs
- Under (5 units)
I expect this one to go under. Tampa Bay has been quiet at the dish. They have only scored 15 runs in their past six games, including three games against the White Sox. Boyd has contained Tampa Bay, issuing a solid 3.75 career ERA.
In addition, Chicago has also been kept in check at the dish, scoring three or fewer runs in five of their past six games against weak pitching staffs in the Nationals and Braves. Baz has posted a strong 3.59 ERA on the road. The under is 6-2 in the Cubs' past games.
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