Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 27, 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 3:05 PM ET and televised on MLB.TV. This is the final regular-season game for both teams. Tampa Bay is 97-63, first in the AL East, and has clinched the division. The Rays beat Philadelphia 2-0 on Friday and are 6-4 across their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 87-73, second in the NL East, and currently holds the final NL wild-card position, one game ahead of Arizona. The Phillies have lost three straight and are 4-6 over their last 10. Be a winner when using our free MLB picks.

Tampa Bay Rays Closing Out an AL East Title Season

Tampa Bay snapped a two-game losing streak with Friday’s 2-0 victory over Philadelphia after dropping consecutive games against the Yankees. Junior Caminero is batting .275 with 41 home runs, 99 RBI, 168 hits, and a .359 on-base percentage. Yandy Diaz has a .290 average with 177 hits, 22 homers and 85 RBI. Jonathan Aranda is hitting .275 with 22 home runs and 92 RBI, while Chandler Simpson leads Tampa Bay with a .306 average and has stolen 46 bases.

The Rays are batting .257 with 721 runs, 1,380 hits, 166 home runs, a .326 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay ranks first in MLB batting and seventh in pitching, with the staff recording a 3.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .228 opponent average. Rays pitchers have issued only 400 walks while recording 1,309 strikeouts. Tampa Bay has allowed 642 runs against 721 scored. The Rays have made 91 errors with a .984 fielding percentage and own a 42-37 road record.

Injuries: Chandler Simpson (questionable), Garrett Cleavinger (out), Gavin Lux (out), Edwin Uceta (out), Jonathan Heasley (out).

Philadelphia Phillies Trying to End a Three-Game Slide

Philadelphia has lost three straight after Friday’s 2-0 defeat, following losses of 5-1 and 4-1 against Milwaukee. Bryce Harper is batting .270 with 28 home runs, 86 RBI, 153 hits and a .382 on-base percentage. Kyle Schwarber leads Philadelphia with 45 home runs and 95 RBI while scoring 94 runs. Alec Bohm is hitting .251 with 15 homers and 88 RBI, while Bryson Stott has a .250 average, 10 home runs, 66 RBI and 26 stolen bases.

The Phillies are batting .240 with 705 runs, 1,282 hits, 180 home runs, a .311 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Philadelphia ranks 22nd in MLB batting and 11th in pitching. The pitching staff owns a 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .247 opponent average, with 1,560 strikeouts and 479 walks. Philadelphia has allowed 683 runs, 22 fewer than it has scored. The Phillies have made 78 errors with a .986 fielding percentage and have a 42-37 record at Citizens Bank Park.

Injuries: Jonathan Bowlan (questionable), Luis Arraez (out), Jesus Luzardo (out), Caleb Kilian (out), Felix Reyes (out).

Pitching Matchup

Tampa Bay Rays - Nick Martinez

Nick Martinez is 15-5 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 177.1 innings. He has allowed 164 hits and 22 home runs while recording 108 strikeouts and 25 walks.

Philadelphia Phillies - Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler is 13-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 156 innings. He has allowed 118 hits and 20 home runs while recording 188 strikeouts and 47 walks.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Pick

• Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is the pick behind Martinez and the Rays’ season numbers across this matchup. Martinez is 15-5 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, while Wheeler is 13-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The Rays also own a .257 team average, compared with Philadelphia at .240, and Tampa Bay has a 3.70 team ERA. Friday’s 2-0 victory showed the Rays can limit Philadelphia’s lineup, and Tampa Bay has won six of its last 10 games overall this season.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick with Martinez and Wheeler presenting a matchup between two starters with ERAs close to 3.00 and WHIPs near 1.00. Tampa Bay shut out Philadelphia 2-0 on Friday, while the Phillies have scored only two runs across their last three games. Tampa Bay has scored 14 runs over its last five, with two shutouts among those results. Martinez has issued only 25 walks in 177.1 innings, while Wheeler has allowed 118 hits across 156 innings, setting up another low-scoring contest.