Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday September 25 2026

Texas and Minnesota open the final series with one of the closest starting matchups on Friday's board. Jacob deGrom owns a 3.86 ERA, while Joe Ryan sits at 3.83. The market reflects that similarity, pricing the game near a pick'em. Texas is a slight favorite on some boards, but Minnesota around -105 is attractive because the Twins get the final at-bat and are not being asked to pay a premium for a starter whose current numbers are essentially even with deGrom's.

Texas comes in after beating the Mets 3-1 Thursday. Minnesota has had additional rest after finishing its San Francisco series earlier in the week. This game is more likely to be decided by one or two key at-bats than by a large gap in starting pitching.

For the rest of Friday's board, see our MLB picks and predictions coverage.

Best Available Odds for Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins

• Texas Rangers -112 to -115 | Minnesota Twins -105 to -108
• Texas -1.5 (+155)
• Total: 7 to 7.5

Game Info

• Date: Friday, September 25, 2026
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
• Records: Texas 79-80 | Minnesota 75-84
• Probable Pitchers: Jacob deGrom (11-10, 3.86 ERA) vs Joe Ryan (6-10, 3.83 ERA)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Preview

The Rangers have played several tight games and remain around .500, with pitching doing much of the work. Minnesota is below .500 but has been more comfortable at Target Field, particularly when Ryan keeps the game under control. Neither club brings a decisive offensive advantage into Friday.

That makes the near-even price important. The Twins do not need Ryan to outpitch deGrom by a wide margin. They need six competitive innings and a chance to turn home field into one late scoring opportunity. Texas has enough power to punish mistakes, so Minnesota cannot give away free baserunners.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

deGrom remains capable of overpowering any lineup, but his 3.86 ERA shows he has been more human this season than at his absolute peak. Texas will still expect strikeouts and efficient innings, and Minnesota has to avoid chasing his slider below the zone.

Ryan's 3.83 ERA is virtually identical. His control has been strong, and he can challenge Texas if he keeps the ball away from the middle of the plate. The Twins do not need him to be better than deGrom by much. They need to match him long enough for the home bullpen and final at-bat to matter.

Odds and Line Movement

Texas has ranged from -112 to -115, with Minnesota around -105 to -108. That is effectively a pick'em after accounting for the hold. The total is very low at 7 to 7.5, which confirms the market's respect for both starters. The home moneyline is the cleaner way to play the game because the pitching matchup offers almost no separation.

Our MLB betting trends page provides additional league-wide context.

What Decides This Game

The first team to score twice may control the entire game. Both starters can protect a small lead, so situational hitting and defense matter more than raw power. Minnesota must avoid giving Texas free bases because deGrom is unlikely to allow many comeback opportunities.

Late-Inning Outlook

A tie game after six favors the Twins slightly because Minnesota gets the final at-bat and can deploy its bullpen without first protecting a road lead. Texas has enough late power to erase that advantage, but the home side only needs one favorable matchup.

Separate hitter and pitcher markets are covered in our MLB player props section.

Price Discipline

Minnesota is attractive because the market is close to even. deGrom is still capable of dominating, so the Twins should not be chased if the price moves sharply toward the home side. Near -105, the final at-bat and nearly equal starter numbers are priced fairly.

Best Bet - Minnesota Twins ML (-105)

Minnesota -105 is the best bet. Ryan's numbers are virtually even with deGrom's, the Twins are at home and the market is not asking Minnesota to overcome a meaningful price premium. Texas is capable of winning a low-scoring game, but there is little justification for paying extra for the road side when the starters are this close.

The wager works best near pick'em. If Minnesota becomes a clear favorite, the value shrinks.

Game Thesis: With deGrom and Ryan nearly even on current numbers, Minnesota's home field and near-pick'em price provide the deciding advantage.

Final Prediction

Prediction: Minnesota Twins 3, Texas Rangers 2