Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 26, 2026

The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Boston Red Sox on Sunday at 1:35 PM ET at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Toronto is 47-57 and sits fifth in the AL East, 13.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays have dropped four of their last five games, including a 6-4 loss to Boston on Friday. The Red Sox are 53-49 and sit third in the division, 6.5 games behind the Rays. Boston has won 16 of its last 17 games and continues to stay in the American League Wild Card race. Be a big winner using our free MLB picks.

Toronto Blue Jays Struggling to Find Consistency

Toronto has struggled to score consistently this season, batting .241 while producing 409 runs with 838 hits, 103 home runs, a .303 on-base percentage, and a .378 slugging percentage. Kazuma Okamoto leads the Blue Jays with 23 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Ernie Clement is batting .293 with a team-high 114 hits. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has added a .343 on-base percentage, and George Springer has contributed 10 home runs. Toronto needs more production throughout the lineup after scoring six total runs over its last two games.

The Blue Jays have received solid work from their pitching staff despite the team's record. Toronto owns a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while holding opponents to a .243 batting average. The staff has recorded 923 strikeouts through 104 games and has generally kept games within reach. Toronto will need another strong overall effort on the mound against a Boston lineup that has been swinging the bat well during its recent stretch.

Injuries: Lenyn Sosa (10-Day IL), Max Scherzer (15-Day IL), Jesus Sanchez (10-Day IL), Jonatan Clase (10-Day IL), Yimi Garcia (60-Day IL).

Boston Red Sox Continue to Win

Boston is batting .245 while scoring 432 runs with 834 hits, 98 home runs, a .315 on-base percentage, and a .395 slugging percentage. Willson Contreras has led the offense with a .293 batting average, 22 home runs, and 66 RBIs. Ceddanne Rafaela has collected 106 hits, Wilyer Abreu has added 15 home runs, and Jarren Duran has driven in 52 runs. The Red Sox have scored six runs in three of their last four victories and continue to receive contributions throughout the lineup.

The Red Sox have built their success around dependable pitching. Boston owns a 3.56 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, both among the best marks in the American League, while limiting opponents to a .238 batting average. The staff has consistently kept opposing offenses in check and backed the club's recent run of victories with steady work from both the rotation and bullpen.

Injuries: Ranger Suarez (15-Day IL), Triston Casas (60-Day IL), Johan Oviedo (60-Day IL), Roman Anthony (60-Day IL), Connelly Early (15-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman

Gausman is 4-9 with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP across 115.2 innings. He has allowed 114 hits while striking out 117 batters and walking 34. Toronto will need Gausman to limit hard contact against a Boston lineup that has produced timely offense during its recent winning stretch.

Boston Red Sox – Payton Tolle

Tolle enters with a 5-6 record, a 3.31 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP over 89.2 innings. The left-hander has surrendered only 73 hits while striking out 96 batters and allowing nine home runs. Tolle has consistently provided Boston with quality starts throughout the season.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Game Pick

• Boston Red Sox

Boston has the advantage with the stronger pitching staff, the hotter lineup, and home-field support at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have won 16 of the last 17 games and already opened the series with a victory, while Payton Tolle has delivered dependable results throughout the season. Toronto's offense has struggled to score consistently, making it difficult to keep pace with a Boston club that has played well on both sides of the game. The Red Sox are the play to complete another home win.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Over/Under Pick

• Under

Boston's pitching staff ranks among the American League's best with a 3.56 ERA and a .238 opponent batting average, while Payton Tolle has posted a 3.31 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Toronto has scored only 409 runs this season and has struggled to produce offense consistently. With one of the league's stronger pitching staffs on the home side and a Blue Jays lineup searching for production, this matchup is set to cash under the total.