Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction for ALCS, Game 4, Thursday, October 16, 2025
The World Series looms on the horizon and the postseason rolls on with a clash between a pair of squads looking to take another step toward that goal as the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Seattle Mariners in Game 4 of their best-of-seven AL Championship Series Thursday night, and we have you covered with our Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction. Seattle stole home-field advantage by taking Game 1 with a 3-1 road win Sunday night and followed that up with a 10-3 triumph in Game 2 Monday night for a 2-0 series advantage. The Blue Jays got back on the winning track with an easy 13-4 road victory to cut the Mariners' series lead to 2-1. Read more about this Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction! Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks!
Sign Up for Winners and Whiners News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Toronto Looking to Get Back in Series
Toronto, for all its success putting runs on the board against the Yankees, was stifled in the first two games of the ALCS, getting outscored 13-4 in falling into a 2-0 series hole. However, in Game 3, the Jays' bats woke up and they also received a strong start from Shane Bieber, who allowed two runs in six innings. He could have allowed a lot more but Toronto's bats erupted early, pounding starter George Kirby for eight runs in four innings, led by a home run and three RBIs from catcher Alejandro Kirk.
In Game 2 against Seattle, Toronto was down 3-0 before coming to the plate and never got even again as they went down in defeat. The Blue Jays finished the game with six hits as Nathan Lukes (run, RBI) led the way with three. Toronto went three of 10 with runners in scoring position and left seven runners on base in the contest. Trey Yesavage (1-1) took the loss as he allowed five runs on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts over four innings of work.
Max Scherzer gets the ball for the first time in the postseason after logging 17 starts in the regular season for the Blue Jays. He was 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.294 WHIP, 23 walks and 82 strikeouts over 85 innings of work this season. Scherzer took the loss in his last start, which came against the Red Sox back on September 24. He threw five innings, allowing four runs on 10 hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-1 Blue Jays loss. In his last three starts, Scherzer is 0-2 with a 10.97 ERA, a 2.25 WHIP, three walks and 12 strikeouts over 10.2 innings of work. Scherzer makes his 10th career start against the Mariners in this contest. He is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA, a 1.179 WHIP, 16 walks and 55 strikeouts over 57.2 innings of work in those outings. Scherzer is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.304 WHIP, eight walks and 32 strikeouts over 30.2 innings of work in five career starts at T-Mobile Park.
Mariners Seeking to Defend Home Field
Seattle shrugged off the fatigue factor of having to go 15 innings in Game 5 of their AL Division Series by taking both games north of the border against the Blue Jays. Despite hitting three homers in Game 3, the Mariners were pounded by the Jays, 13-4 as Kirby and the bullpen allowed 18 hits. Against Toronto in Game 2, Seattle banged out 10 hits as Josh Naylor (run, two RBI) had three hits while Jorge Polanco (two runs, three RBI) added a pair in the game. Polanco (his third of the postseason), Julio Rodriguez (his second) and Naylor (his first) went deep in the win. Logan Gilbert threw three innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits with one walk and two strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Eduard Bazardo (1-0) earned the win in relief as he threw two scoreless innings of relief, allowing one hit with no walks and one strikeout.
Luis Castillo is expected to get the call for the Mariners for his third appearance, second start, of the postseason after logging 32 regular-season starts. He was 11-8 with a 3.54 ERA, a 1.185 WHIP, 46 walks and 162 strikeouts over 180.2 innings of work this year. In the postseason, Castillo is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, a 0.833 WHIP, four walks, and four strikeouts over six innings of work. Castillo earned the win in his last outing, which came in relief in Game 5 of the AL Division Series against the Tigers at home on Friday. He threw 1.1 innings, allowing no runs on no hits with no walks and one strikeout in a game the Mariners won 3-2 in 15 innings. In his last three appearances, two starts, Castillo is 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA, a 0.45 WHIP, four walks and 14 strikeouts over 13.1 innings of work. Castillo makes his seventh career start against the Blue Jays in this contest. He is 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA, a 1.531 WHIP, nine walks and 31 strikeouts over 32.2 innings of work against them. Castillo is 22-14 with a 2.80 ERA, a 0.991 WHIP, 81 walks, and 377 strikeouts over 334 innings of work in 56 career starts at T-Mobile Park.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Moneyline Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Mariners (4 units)
Toronto dropped the first two games at home and finds itself in a tough situation as they send Scherzer to the mound for the first time in three weeks here. He was anything but good down the stretch as he was 0-3 with a 9.95 ERA, a 2.105 WHIP, seven walks and 21 strikeouts while allowing six homers in 19 innings over his last five starts. Meanwhile, Castillo’s ERA is more than two runs better at home (2.49 over 105 innings) than on the road (4.71) this season. Given the fact that the Mariners have momentum, coupled with Scherzer’s rust and struggles down the stretch, back the hosts in this contest.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Under (4 units)
Toronto has seen the over post a 90-73-5 mark in their 168 games on the year entering Wednesday night. The Blue Jays are 3rd in the majors with 4.98 runs per game, and that number falls to 4.55 runs per game away from Rogers Centre. Toronto has an average total of 9.46 runs per game but that number drops to 9.31 runs per game on the road. Seattle has seen the over go 92-71-6 in their first 169 games of the year entering Wednesday night. The Mariners are 10th in the majors with 4.72 runs per game, a number that falls to 4.29 runs per game on the road. They have an average total of 8.97 runs per game and that number drops to an even eight runs per game as the visiting team. With T-Mobile Park being a pitcher-friendly venue and temperatures not expected to get out of the 50s during the game, the ball likely doesn’t carry as it would in Toronto. Scherzer doesn’t have a long leash here and as a result, this game winds up falling under the total.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $200
