Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction for ALCS, Game 5, Friday, October 17, 2025
The World Series looms on the horizon and the postseason rolls on with a clash between a pair of squads looking to take another step toward that goal as the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Seattle Mariners in a critical Game 5 of their best-of-seven AL Championship Series Friday night and we have you covered with our Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction. Seattle stole home-field advantage by taking Game 1 with a 3-1 road win Sunday night and followed that up with a 10-3 triumph in Game 2 on Monday night for a 2-0 series advantage. Toronto got on the board as they hammered their way to a 13-4 victory in Game 3 of the set at T-Mobile Park Wednesday night. Then on Thursday night, the Blue Jays tied the series with an 8-2 victory over the Mariners thanks to a solid start from Max Scherzer. Which team picks up a victory in this pivotal contest? This game was published prior to the conclusion of Game 4 of the series at T-Mobile Park on Thursday night. Read more about this Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction! Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks!
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Blue Jays Looking to Prevail Again on the Road
Toronto managed to avoid a 3-0 series deficit as they managed to earn the victory on the road in Game 3 of the set on Wednesday night. The Blue Jays look to pick up a win here to maintain momentum and push the series back north of the border. Against Seattle, Toronto banged out 18 hits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (three runs, RBI) leading the way with four while George Springer (two runs, RBI) and Andres Gimenez (two runs, two RBI) each recorded three. Springer (his third), Guerrero Jr. (his fourth), Gimenez (his first), Alejandro Kirk (his third) and Addison Barger (his first) each went deep in the win. Shane Bieber (1-0) earned the win as he threw six innings, allowing two runs on four hits with one walk and eight strikeouts, before handing the ball off to the bullpen. On Thursday, Guerrero Jr. did it again with another homer, while Andres' Gimenez added his second homer in the last two days and had four RBIs
Kevin Gausman is on the bump for the Blue Jays as he makes his third start of the postseason in this contest after 32 regular-season starts. He was 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA, a 1.062 WHIP, 50 walks and 189 strikeouts over 193 innings of work in the regular season. In the postseason, he is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA, a 0.883 WHIP, three walks and eight strikeouts over 11.1 innings of work. Gausman took the loss in his last start, which came against the Mariners at home in Game 1 of the AL Championship Series Sunday. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing two runs on three hits with one walk and five strikeouts, in a 3-1 Blue Jays defeat. In his last three starts, Gausman is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, five walks and 13 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. Gausman makes his 14th career appearance, 13th start, against the Mariners in this contest. He is 2-5 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.105 WHIP, 14 walks and 79 strikeouts over 76 innings in those outings. Gausman is 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.127 WHIP, 10 walks and 54 strikeouts over 52.1 innings in nine career appearances, eight starts, at T-Mobile Park.
Seattle Trying to Stay in Driver’s Seat
Seattle had momentum after winning the first two games of the series north of the border before getting drubbed in Game 3 of the set at home Wednesday night. The Mariners now look to pick up a home win to keep the pressure on the Blue Jays. In Game 3, Seattle finished with eight hits in the game with Julio Rodriguez (run, two RBI) the lone player with two. Rodriguez (his third of the postseason), Cal Raleigh (his third) and Randy Arozarena (his first) each went deep for the Mariners in the loss. George Kirby (0-1) took the loss as he allowed eight runs on eight hits with two walks and four strikeouts over four innings of work.
On Thursday, Luis Castillo was charged with three runs over 2.1 innings and was pulled with the bases loaded in the third inning after throwing 48 pitches. Seattle used five relievers and they combined to give up six hits and five earned runs.
Bryce Miller takes the ball for Seattle here. This marks his third start of the postseason after logging 18 regular-season starts for the Mariners. Miller was 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA, a 1.406 WHIP, 34 walks and 74 strikeouts over 90.1 innings of work in the regular season. In the postseason, he has a 1-0 record with a 2.61 ERA, a 0.871 WHIP, three walks and five strikeouts over 10.1 innings of work. Miller earned the win in the decision in his last start, which came Sunday against Toronto in Game 1 of the AL Championship Series on the road. He threw six innings, allowing one run on two hits with three walks and three strikeouts in a game the Mariners eventually won 3-1. In his last three starts, Miller is 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, five walks and seven strikeouts over 14.1 innings of work. Miller makes his fourth career start against the Blue Jays in this contest. He is 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA, a 1.164 WHIP, seven walks and 12 strikeouts over 16.2 innings of work against them. Miller is 13-9 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, 56 walks and 218 strikeouts over 215.1 innings of action in 39 career starts at T-Mobile Park.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Moneyline Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Mariners (4 units)
This series has been the epitome of a famous Roddy Piper quote: “Just when you think you have all the answers, I change the questions.” It seemed Toronto had the advantage in the first two games of the series with the rest advantage and their pitching lined up how they wanted it. Instead, Seattle took the first two games of the series and seemed poised to roll with the series returning home. However, the Mariners were hammered in Game 3 as the Blue Jays proved to be Kirby’s kryptonite once again. We saw Miller outduel Gausman in the opening game of this series and the Mariners have gotten the upper hand on Gausman in his career. Give the advantage to Seattle here as they push their way to a victory.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Over (4 units)
Toronto has seen the over post a 91-73-5 mark in their 169 games on the year entering Thursday night. The Blue Jays are 3rd in the majors with 5.02 runs per game and that number falls to 4.65 runs per game away from Rogers Centre. Toronto has an average total of 9.50 runs per game, but that number drops to 9.40 runs per game on the road. Seattle has seen the over go 93-71-6 in their first 170 games of the year entering Thursday night. The Mariners are 10th in the majors with 4.72 runs per game, a number that falls to 4.28 runs per game on the road. They have an average total of 9.02 runs per game and that number drops to 8.10 runs per game as the visiting team. Seven of the nine meetings between the teams this season, including the postseason, have gone over the number. Look for this game to wind up over the mark as well.
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