Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, September 17, 2025

By: Liam Keating Published 09/17/2025, 10:47 AM ET
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It’s an American League East battle between two rivals on Wednesday, Sept. 17. Read our Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction along with our other MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks! The Blue Jays are leading the AL East race by a few games over the Yankees. They have previously won nine of their last 12 games before Tuesday’s matchup. The Rays are closing in on being eliminated from playoff contention as they couldn’t find enough wins especially at home. The Rays are set to start Ian Seymour, while Toronto turns to Kevin Gausman on the mound. The first pitch is set for 7:05 P.M. EST.

Toronto closing in on divisional crown

Toronto is in first place in the American League East. They hold at least a five-game lead over the Yankees for the top spot. The Blue Jays are hovering around .500 when playing on the road, as they have the best home record in the American League. Coming into Tuesday, the Blue Jays have won five straight games. Toronto has also won nine of its last 12 games before Tuesday’s matchup.

Kevin Gausman gets the start for the Blue Jays on Wednesday. The right-handed pitcher is 10-10 with a 3.44 ERA in 29 starts. His last start saw him throw a complete game against the Astros on Sept. 11. He allowed zero runs and just two hits in a 6-0 win. Toronto is 16-12 when Gausman has started this season. He has a 3.45 ERA when pitching on the road and a 2.25 ERA since the All-Star break. He threw 5.2 innings against the Rays earlier this season. He allowed six runs and 10 hits versus Tampa Bay.

The Blue Jays are hitting .269 this season, which is the top-ranked batting average in the league. They have scored the fourth most runs, while they rank first in hits. Toronto has hit the 12th most home runs. They have also struck out the second fewest times. They are hitting .264 when playing on the road and .287 since the All-Star break. Toronto is hitting .280 in September and just .201 in seven games versus Tampa Bay.

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Clock ticking for Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes

Tampa Bay is in fourth place in the American League East division. They are at least 15 games back of the Blue Jays for the divisional lead. The Rays are also over 8 games back of a wild-card spot. The clock is ticking out their playoff hopes as they are barely above .500 when playing at home this year. Entering Tuesday, the Rays have lost eight of their last 10 games.

On Wednesday, the Rays are set to start Ian Seymour.  The left-handed pitcher is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts and 13 relief appearances. Seymour’s last start saw him throw 5.1 innings against the White Sox on Sept. 11. He allowed two runs and four hits as Tampa Bay lost 5-1. Tampa Bay is 4-12 when Seymour has made an appearance this year. In five games, he has a 4.97 ERA when pitching at home. This is his first appearance versus the Blue Jays this season.

Tampa Bay is hitting .251 this season, which ranks ninth in the league. They have scored the 14th most run,s while they also rank 10th in hits. The Rays have hit the 16th most home runs. They are hitting .261 when they have played at home and just .238 since the All-Star break. In September, Tampa Bay has a .262 batting average and .252 against Toronto in seven games this season.

Blue Jays vs Rays Pick

Spread Pick for Blue Jays vs Rays

  • Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (5 units)

Toronto is finishing their regular season strong as they looks to clinch the American League East division shortly. The Blue Jays are hitting .287 since the All-Star break and .280 this month. They are also starting Kevin Gausman, who is coming off of his best start of the season. He threw a complete game and allowed just two hits in a win over Houston. He will replicate this performance against a Tampa Bay lineup that is hitting just .238 in the second half of the season. Gausman has a 2.25 ERA since the All-Star break, too. The Rays are starting Ian Seymour and they have a 4-12 record when he has appeared on the mound. He has a 4.97 ERA when pitching at home which Toronto’s lineup should take advantage of in this game.

Take the Blue Jays to cover.

Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs Rays

  • Under 8.5 runs (5 units)

The Blue Jays are starting Kevin Gausman, who has been great recently. His last start saw him throw a complete game and he has a 2.25 ERA since the All-Star break. The Rays' lineup has struggled, hitting .238 in the second half of the season. Toronto’s lineup, which has been fairly good this season, has been poor when facing Tampa Bay. They own just a .201 batting average against them in seven matchups.

Take the under on Wednesday.

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