Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks - September 16, 2025
Use Code WWWC Tuesday evening, Major League Baseball action, and we have a Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction locked and loaded. The Blue Jays are atop the American League East with an 88-62 record. The Rays are just about out of playoff contention with a 73-77 record. Tampa Bay leads the season series 5-2. Continue reading to see our Blue Jays vs Rays prediction.
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Blue Jays Have Won Five In A Row
Toronto extended its win streak to five with Monday’s extra-inning victory, where Ernie Clement scored twice and George Springer delivered the go-ahead RBI single in the 11th. The Jays have now won seven of their last ten and are outscoring opponents 58–30 over that stretch. Their offense ranks fourth in MLB in runs scored (749), fifth in slugging (.433), and first in OBP (.338). Springer leads the team with 29 homers, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .304 with 80 RBIs and a .397 OBP. Even with Bo Bichette sidelined, this lineup remains dangerous top to bottom.
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Tuesday’s starter José Berríos (9–5, 3.99 ERA) has been steady, logging 14 quality starts and averaging 5.5 innings per outing. He’s allowed just a .253 opponent batting average and has struck out 135 in 160.2 innings. Berríos has faced Tampa twice this season, allowing three earned runs over 11.1 innings with a 1.059 WHIP and .190 batting average against. With Toronto’s bullpen combining for 18 strikeouts and just one earned run over 6 innings Monday, Berríos has a solid support system behind him.
Defensively, the Jays have committed just 81 errors all season and rank 11th in MLB in defensive efficiency. Their bullpen has converted 62.9% of save opportunities and stranded 70.6% of inherited runners. With a rested core and momentum on their side, Toronto enters Tuesday with a chance to clinch the series and tighten their grip on the AL East lead.
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The Rays Are Struggling Down The Stretch
Tampa Bay dropped its second straight and fell to 3–7 over its last ten games, despite a strong outing from Joe Boyle and a first-inning RBI double from Yandy Díaz. The Rays managed just four hits Monday and went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position. They’ve now averaged just 3.1 runs per game over their last ten and have hit .242 as a team in that span. Junior Caminero leads the club with 44 homers and 108 RBIs, while Díaz is batting .291 and Brandon Lowe has chipped in 28 home runs. But the lineup has struggled to string together rallies.
Ryan Pepiot (11–10, 3.59 ERA) gets the start Tuesday and enters with a .216 opponent batting average and 161 strikeouts in 163.2 innings. He’s thrown five or more innings in seven straight starts and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last three outings. Pepiot has faced Toronto twice this season, giving up just three earned runs over 13 innings with 12 strikeouts. If he can keep the ball in the park and avoid early traffic, he gives Tampa a real shot to even the series.
The Rays’ bullpen has been shaky, converting just 56.7% of save chances and allowing 31.6% of inherited runners to score. They’ve committed 69 errors this season and rank 26th in save percentage. With playoff hopes fading, Tampa needs a clean outing from Pepiot and timely hitting to avoid a third straight loss and keep pace in the Wild Card race.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick
Blue Jays vs Rays Moneyline Pick
- Toronto -108 (5 Units)
Toronto’s momentum makes them a strong play in Game 2, especially after Monday’s 2–1 extra-inning win extended their streak to five. The Blue Jays have outscored opponents 58–30 over their last ten games and continue to deliver in tight spots—George Springer’s go-ahead RBI and Ernie Clement’s clutch baserunning were textbook examples. José Berríos gets the start Tuesday and has held Tampa to a .190 batting average across two outings this season. With a rested bullpen and a lineup that ranks top five in OBP and slugging, Toronto has the edge in both form and matchup.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has dropped 8 of its last 10 and is averaging just 3.1 runs per game during that stretch. Ryan Pepiot has been solid, but he’ll face a Jays offense that’s hitting .270 as a team and has scored five or more runs in six of its last ten. Toronto has covered in seven of its last nine wins, often by multiple runs, and they’ve shown they can win both slugfests and grinders. With playoff urgency and a deeper lineup, the Jays are well-positioned to take control of the series.
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Blue Jays vs Rays Over/Under Pick
- Under 8.5 (4 Units)
The Under 8.5 is a sharp lean for Tuesday’s matchup, with both teams coming off a 2–1 extra-inning grinder and sending reliable arms to the mound. José Berríos has held Tampa to a .190 average across two starts this season, while Ryan Pepiot hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last three outings. Toronto’s bullpen has been lights-out, and Tampa’s offense has sputtered—averaging just 3.1 runs over its last 10 games. With playoff tension tightening and both lineups struggling to string together rallies, this profiles as another low-scoring duel in the 3–2 or 4–3 range.
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