Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Tuesday, the Washington Nationals will take on the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park, and we have you ready to go with our Nationals vs. Braves prediction. The NL East clash starts at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Atlanta is a -186 moneyline favorite, and the game total is nine runs scored.
This is the fourth and final series of the season between these divisional rivals. The Braves won seven of the previous ten games, and the under was 5-3-2 in those meetings. If you want the Nationals vs. Braves prediction, read on and check out our MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks!
*Article published before the conclusion of Monday night's game.
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Nationals are fading down the final stretch
Washington (64-92 SU, 74-82 RL, and 78-68-10 O/U) won two of three games against New York (NL) in its previous series. The Nationals are 2-8 in their last ten games (the over/under was 3-3-4).
Washington will start right-hander Brad Lord on Tuesday night versus Atlanta. In his last outing, the 25-year-old gave up two runs and six hits in a 5.1-frame no-decision against the Braves. He is 5-8 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 46 appearances (17 starts) this season, including 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the road (56.0 IP).
The Nationals finished fourth in the NL East standings last year, compiling a 71-91 record. They have looked competitive in spurts this year, but they haven't been able to sustain momentum. The club's core, much of which was acquired in the 2022 trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, is strong, but the unit lacks quality veteran experience. While unlikely to make legitimate noise in the MLB postseason soon, the Nats have potential.
Washington Nationals Baseball Injury Report: RF Daylen Lile (knee) is questionable for tomorrow's game against the Braves.
Atlanta entered this series red-hot
Atlanta (73-83 SU, 76-79 RL, and 71-74-10 O/U) swept Detroit in its previous series. The Braves are 10-0 in their last ten games (the over went 4-2-4).
Atlanta will turn to righty Hurston Waldrep tomorrow against Washington. In his last start, the second-year pro gave up three runs and five hits, fanning eight batters in a five-inning win over the Nats. He is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine games (eight starts) this year, including 2-1 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home (22.2 IP).
The Braves have been competitive at Truist Park, but they haven't been able to sustain their momentum when they leave town. Atlanta is 37-44 on the road in 2025, with their pitching being the main culprit. The Braves won't be making the postseason in 2025, but the front office should be busy in the free agency market this offseason.
Atlanta Braves Baseball Injury Report: 3B Vidal Brujan (hip) is questionable for Tuesday's game against the Nationals.
Nationals vs. Braves Pick
Run Line Pick for Nationals vs. Braves
- Washington to Cover Run Line (4 Units)
Betting Trends: Washington is 42-30 against the run line as road underdogs, while Atlanta has a 22-38 run line record as home favorites this season.
I lean towards the Nationals' side in Tuesday night's divisional affair, as I don't believe either team has a significant pitching advantage. Waldrep picked up the win when these starters faced off last week in DC, but both pitchers fared pretty well. Additionally, Lord has been more consistent this month, allowing six runs in three starts, while Waldrep had a poor outing (eight runs allowed versus Houston) two starts ago. In a divisional matchup between non-playoff contenders, I anticipate a close game.
Over/Under Pick for Nationals vs. Braves
- Over 9 (5 Units)
These ballclubs combined for 13 runs when these pitchers faced each other on September 17. The Nationals have only 26 combined plate appearances against Waldrep, but Statcast indicates (.296 xBA) they could have success against him tomorrow. The Braves have also fared well against Lord, with a .297 BA in 40 combined plate appearances. Facing the same team in consecutive starts is challenging, and neither starter has a reliable relief unit waiting in the wings (30th and 19th in bullpen ERA).
The over is 37-29-6 when the Nats are road underdogs, the fifth-highest over winning percentage in MLB this year. That's how I'll bet on Tuesday's game.
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