Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday January 9 2026
Friday evening on the NBA hardwood, and we have an Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets prediction locked and loaded for you. The Hawks enter this game at 18-21 on the year and off a 117-100 home win over New Orleans. The Nuggets come in off a 114-110 road win over Boston, to move to 25-12 on the year. Denver has won the last six games in the series. Read on to see our Hawks vs Nuggets prediction.
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Hawks Take Down Pelicans With Ease
Atlanta heads to Denver on Friday coming off a sharp 117–100 win over the Pelicans, a night that felt like the start of a new era as much as a bounce‑back victory. The game unfolded just hours after the franchise‑shaking news that Trae Young had been traded to the Washington Wizards, ending a six‑year run that defined the Hawks’ identity. With Young sidelined by a quad contusion and now officially on his way out, Atlanta leaned into a different look — more ball movement, more size, more balance. Zaccharie Risacher led with 25 points, Jalen Johnson added 19, and seven players scored in double figures as the Hawks controlled the game wire‑to‑wire. The Pelicans shot just 44% and 29% from deep, and Atlanta’s 33 assists were a clear sign of how the offense is shifting without Young dominating possessions.
For the season, the Hawks sit 11th in scoring at 118.5 points per game, shooting 47.9% from the field (8th) and 37.3% from three (5th), though rebounding remains a weakness at 41.9 per game (25th). Defensively, they’ve struggled, allowing 119.4 points (24th) and opponents hitting 47.7% overall (23rd). Against Denver, the keys revolve around embracing this post‑Trae identity: Risacher and Johnson must stay aggressive as primary creators, the ball has to keep moving, and Atlanta must find ways to survive on the glass against Nikola Jokić and a Nuggets team that punishes second‑chance chances. The Hawks’ shooting gives them a puncher’s chance, but their margin for error shrinks without Young’s shot‑making. Controlling tempo, limiting turnovers, and proving they can generate efficient offense by committee will determine whether they can hang in altitude against the defending champs.
Nuggets Stun The Celtics On The Road
Denver rolls into Friday’s matchup with Atlanta riding the confidence of a gritty 114–110 road win in Boston, their second straight victory without Nikola Jokić. In a game that featured 26 lead changes and long stretches where both teams traded punches, the Nuggets closed with a decisive 14–0 fourth‑quarter run, powered by Peyton Watson’s 30 points and Jamal Murray’s masterful 22‑point, 17‑assist performance. Denver also beat Philadelphia earlier in the week, meaning they’ve now taken back‑to‑back road games against two Eastern contenders without their three‑time MVP. Their late‑game execution in Boston — shooting 57.9% in the fourth while holding the Celtics to 34.6% — showed a level of composure and balance that’s kept them afloat during Jokić’s absence.
For the season, Denver owns one of the league’s most explosive offenses, ranking 1st in scoring (124.1 PPG), 1st in field‑goal percentage (50.7%), and 1st in three‑point percentage (40.4%), with elite efficiency at every level. Defensively, they sit middle‑of‑the‑pack, allowing 118.1 points (22nd) but holding opponents to 47.2% shooting (17th) and 35.4% from deep (12th). Against Atlanta, the formula is straightforward: Murray must continue to orchestrate the offense at a high level, Watson and Zeke Nnaji need to provide the same energy and shot‑making they showed in Boston, and Denver has to control tempo against a Hawks team that shoots the ball well but struggles on the glass. With Jokić still out, the Nuggets’ margin for error tightens, but their recent road form — and the confidence gained from beating Philly and Boston without their superstar — gives them a strong foundation heading into this matchup.
Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Hawks vs Nuggets Spread Pick
- Denver -1 (4 Units)
Denver -1 makes plenty of sense here because the Nuggets have shown they can steady themselves without Nikola Jokić and still beat quality teams on the road, taking down both Philadelphia and Boston in back‑to‑back games with late‑game poise and elite shot‑making. Jamal Murray has stepped comfortably into a lead‑creator role, Peyton Watson is coming off a breakout 30‑point night, and Denver’s offense remains the most efficient in the league at 124.1 points per game with top‑ranked shooting across the board. Atlanta, meanwhile, is adjusting to life after the Trae Young trade and now leans heavily on young pieces who haven’t faced a defense as disciplined as Denver’s when it’s locked in. With the Nuggets carrying real momentum, playing with confidence, and proving they can execute in tight fourth quarters even without their MVP, laying the small number feels like the right side.
Hawks vs Nuggets Over/Under Pick
- Under 236 (5 Units)
The Under 236 fits this matchup because Denver’s identity without Nikola Jokić has shifted toward slower, more deliberate possessions, leaning heavily on Jamal Murray’s half‑court creation rather than the free‑flowing, high‑possession style they play with their MVP. Their last two games — both road wins over Philly and Boston — finished at 214 and 224 total points, and both had long stretches where Denver tightened the screws defensively and controlled tempo. Atlanta, meanwhile, is adjusting to life after the Trae Young trade, and while they can shoot it, they’re not nearly as explosive without his shot‑making and pace‑pushing. The Hawks also rank just 25th in rebounding, which limits second‑chance scoring and keeps games from ballooning. With Denver’s offense still efficient but less explosive without Jokić, and their defense showing real bite on this road swing, this matchup has more of a mid‑220s feel than anything approaching the high 230s.
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