Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Picks, and Prediction, Wednesday, November 26, 2025
On Wednesday, the Milwaukee Bucks will play the Miami Heat at Kaseya Center in NBA Cup action, and we have you ready to go with our Bucks vs. Heat prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Miami is at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Heat are nine-point favorites, and the total is 230.5 points.
Milwaukee swept the four-game series with Miami last season. The Bucks are 6-4 straight-up and against the spread in the ten matchups, and the over was 6-4 in those games. If you want the Bucks vs. Heat prediction, read on to get our top NBA predictions and increase your bankroll!
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Milwaukee can't seem to sustain momentum
Milwaukee (8-10 SU, 7-11 ATS, and 10-8 O/U) lost 115-103 to Portland on Monday, its fifth straight loss. The Bucks are paced by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averages 31.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 6.8 dimes per game. They score 116.5 points per game (19th) on 49.3 percent shooting (5th), and hold their opponents to 119.3 points per game (21st) on 47.7 percent shooting (21st).
Milwaukee finished with a 48-34 record last season, winning the NBA Cup and finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference. They were bounced in five games by the eventual EC champs, Indiana, in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The Bucks made a few changes to their roster in an attempt to make a deeper playoff run, trading Khris Middleton to Washington for Kuzma and acquiring Porter Jr. from the Los Angeles Clippers; however, the pieces didn't fit together well enough. That didn't deter management from continuing to retool the team in the offseason, signing Pacers star Myles Turner, waiving Damian Lillard, and letting Brook Lopez walk in free agency.
The addition of Turner turned heads around the league, and the big man gives Milwaukee elite rim protection and long-range shooting. He averaged 2.0 blocks per game last season and stretched the floor, hitting 2.2 three-pointers per game on 39.6 percent shooting. The Bucks also signed Anthony and SG Gary Harris, and re-signed Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, and AJ Green, giving them solid depth around Antetokounmpo and Turner. It's unclear whether this roster gives Giannis a supporting cast capable of competing with the beasts of the East, but the conference is more wide open with several contenders dealing with season-long injuries to star players.
Milwaukee Bucks Basketball Injury Report:
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin) is out. He could miss another week of action.
- F Taurean Prince (neck) is out indefinitely.
- G Kevin Porter Jr. (knee) is out. He is on track for an early December return from surgery.
Can the Heat keep stacking wins?
Miami (12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS, and 11-7 O/U) defeated Dallas 106-102 on Monday. The Heat are 8-2 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games (the over was 6-4). Miami picked up its fifth consecutive win on Monday, holding the Mavs under 40 percent from the field. The Heat struggled from long range (5-for-27), but scored 64 points in the paint. SG Tyler Herro scored 24 points in his season debut, and F Kel’el Ware added 20 points and 18 rebounds for Miami.
Miami ranks 9th in NET rating, including 177h in offensive efficiency rating and 3rd in defensive efficiency rating, per Dunks and Threes. Norman Powell leads the team in scoring this season, averaging 25.4 points with 3.9 rebounds per game. A few other players to watch against the Bucks are Bam Adebayo (19.5 PPG and 8.5 RPG), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 5.5 APG), and Ware (12.0 PPG and 10.6 RPG).
The Heat went 37-45 last season, finishing tenth in the Eastern Conference. It was the team's first sub-.500 performance since 2018-19, but that didn't stop Miami from making the playoffs, as they won eight of their last 12 games to secure a spot in the Play-In Tournament. They took a step further, too, becoming the first ten-seed to advance with consecutive road wins over Chicago and Atlanta. Will they find a way to make a deeper run this season? Miami doesn't have an elite roster, but with Powell, Adebayo, Herro, and Andrew Wiggins, they have veteran experience, while Ware, Jaquez Jr., and Davion Mitchell bring youthful upside.
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Miami Heat Basketball Injury Report:
- G Norman Powell (groin) is probable. He didn't play on Monday.
- G Andrew Wiggins (hip) is questionable. He has missed three straight games.
- F Nikola Jovic (hip) is questionable. He has missed four straight games.
- F Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip) is questionable.
Bucks vs. Heat Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Bucks vs. Heat
- Milwaukee +9 (4 Units)
Miami is hotter and the better bet ATS, but I don't want to lay the nine points with them on Wednesday. With a few significant players hampered by hip injuries, they aren't a surefire bet to cover. The Bucks will be without Giannis, but they're about more than one player. Ranked 1st in eFG% and 2nd in 3PT%, the visitors have enough overall and long-range scoring threats to keep the score close. Milwaukee usually takes good care of the basketball (13.6% TO%), which is also an x-factor going up against a Miami team that doesn't turn the ball over much (13.1% TO%) and or give up many easy points at the charity stripe.
Over/Under Pick for Bucks vs. Heat
- Over 230.5 (4 Units)
Neither team is healthy, but I still like the upside of a wager on the total to go over 230 points on Wednesday. The Heat lead the NBA in pace and should get their leading scorer, Powell, back to lead the charge. If one or two of the other questionable players suit up, they'll be a tough matchup for Milwaukee, but even if they don't, the home team should have plenty of scoring options. Herro was excellent in his season debut, and I'm sure he's excited and eager to build on that performance. While Milwaukee isn't quite as fast-paced, it won't slow down the pace much, and I like the visitors' chances of keeping the score close.
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