Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Picks and Prediction for Monday, November 3, 2025
Use Code WWWC Dallas Mavericks (2-4) vs. Houston Rockets (3-2)
The 2025-26 NBA betting action goes on Monday, November 3, with the Dallas Mavericks taking on the Houston Rockets in the Southwest Division showdown at Toyota Center in Houston, TX, and we’ve got you covered with our Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction.
Dallas and Houston open their four-game regular-season series. The Rockets went 3-1 SU and ATS against the Mavericks in 2024-25, and three of those four contests went under the total. Now, let’s take a closer look at this Mavs vs. Rockets prediction, one of our NBA picks for Monday’s card. The tip-off is set at 8:00 PM ET.
The Mavericks are off to a slow start
The Dallas Mavericks (2-4; 2-4 ATS; 2-4 O/U) started their 2025-26 campaign with a five-game homestand, going 2-3 SU and ATS in the process. The Mavs wrapped it up with a 107-105 victory to the Indiana Pacers last Wednesday. Three days later, the Mavs suffered a 122-110 loss against the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Mexico City Game.
The Pistons outscored the Mavericks 35-17 in the fourth quarter. Dallas shot just 42.5% from the field (16-for-45 from deep), committed seven more turnovers than Detroit (15-8), and gave up 14 offensive rebounds. D’Angelo Russell led the way for Dallas with 31 points and seven rebounds, while rookie Cooper Flagg had 16 points, eight boards, and four assists.
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Flagg hasn’t impressed through his first six games, averaging 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. He’s making just 37.3% of his field goals. The Mavericks are dead last in the NBA in adjusted offensive efficiency (104.5 points per 100 possessions) and 25th in 3-point percentage (32.8%). They allow 112.5 points per 100 possessions (8th in the league).
The Rockets eye their fourth straight victory
The Houston Rockets (3-2; 4-1 ATS; 4-1 O/U) opened the season with consecutive defeats against the Oklahoma City Thunder 125-124 in double overtime on the road and the Detroit Pistons 115-111 at home. Since then, the Rockets have won three straight contests. After a 137-109 thrashing of the Brooklyn Nets at home, Houston strung together road wins over the Toronto Raptors 139-121 and the Boston Celtics 128-101.
The Rockets tortured the Celtics last Saturday, leading from start to finish and by as many as 36 points. Houston shot 54.5% from the field (19-for-29 from downtown) and outrebounded Boston 53-36 on the night. Kevin Durant accounted for 26 points, Alperen Sengun had 16 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists, and Amen Thompson added 17 points, nine boards, and eight assists.
Fred VanVleet might miss the entire season due to a torn ACL, and in his absence, Sengun and Thompson are driving the Rockets’ offense. Houston leads the NBA in adjusted offensive efficiency (127.9) and 3-point percentage (45.4%). The Rockets surrender 114.3 points per 100 possessions (13th in the league).
Mavericks vs. Rockets Pick
Spread Pick for Mavericks vs. Rockets
- Houston Rockets (4 units)
The Mavericks are without Kyrie Irving (knee), Anthony Davis (calf), and Dereck Lively II (knee). With Davis and Lively on the shelf, the Mavericks will have a tall task to contain the Rockets in the paint, so I’m backing Houston to win and cover.
The Rockets are one of the best rebounding teams in the league. They lead the NBA in offensive rebound percentage (36.8%), whereas the Mavericks are dead last in this category (18.7%). Dallas is a solid defensive team, but the Mavs lack weapons to deal with the Rockets at the moment.
Over/Under Pick for Mavericks vs. Rockets
- Over (4 units)
The Rockets’ offense has been outstanding thus far. On the other side, the Mavericks’ offense has been awful. Dallas plays fast, recording 103.5 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in the NBA), whereas Houston plays at the second-slowest pace in the league (95.9).
Hereof, the total looks like a tricky wager. Dallas defends the 3-point line well (9th in opposing 3P%, 34.0%), while Houston ranks 21st in opposing 3-point percentage (36.7%). The Mavericks have to sweep things up in this matchup, so I will take the over. Dallas won’t stand a chance in half-court basketball.
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