Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 31, 2026
Use Code WWWC Dallas Mavericks (19-29) vs. Houston Rockets (29-17)
The NBA betting action goes on Saturday, January 31, 2026, with a six-game card, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Battle of Texas from Toyota Center in Houston to get you the Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction.
Dallas and Houston wrap up their four-game regular-season series, and the Mavericks eye their third straight victory over the Rockets. Dallas is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS versus Houston in 2025-26. The last time they met, the Mavs beat the Rockets 110-104 as 8-point home underdogs on January 3.
Let’s take a closer look at this Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction, one of our NBA picks for Saturday’s slate. The tip-off at Toyota Center is set at 8:30 PM ET.
The Mavericks are on a three-game slide
The Dallas Mavericks (19-29; 22-26 ATS; 21-27 O/U) put an end to their four-game winning streak last Saturday, suffering a 116-110 home defeat against the Los Angeles Lakers. Since then, the Mavs have dropped consecutive home games versus the Minnesota Timberwolves 118-105 and the Charlotte Hornets 123-121.
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Last Thursday, rookie Cooper Flagg dropped 49 points on the Hornets, setting the NBA record for points in a game by a teen. However, it wasn’t enough, as fellow rookie Kon Knueppel hit a couple of free throws with 4.1 seconds remaining to lift Charlotte over Dallas. The Hornets went 20-for-41 from downtown, whereas the Mavs made just 11 of their 33 shots from deep.
With Anthony Davis (20.4 PPG, 11.1 APG) on the shelf, Flagg continues to lead the way for the Mavericks, averaging 19.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. Naji Marshall (14.7 PPG) missed the Hornets game to get some rest, and he should be back in the starting lineup on Saturday.
The Mavericks are four games behind the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference. They score 111.0 points per 100 possessions (27th in the NBA) and allow 113.4 points in return (tied for 9th). The Mavs make just 34.2% of their shots from beyond the arc (tied for 25th).
The Rockets bounced back from the Spurs game
The Houston Rockets (29-17; 22-24 ATS; 20-26 O/U) have dropped two of their previous five outings and are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. They sandwiched a 111-99 defeat to the San Antonio Spurs with a pair of wins over the Memphis Grizzlies 108-99 and the Atlanta Hawks 104-86.
Last Thursday, the Rockets cruised past the injury-depleted Hawks, covering a 6.5-point spread on the road. Houston made just 42.4% of its field goals (12-for-31 from deep), but the Rockets’ defense tortured Atlanta. Also, the Rockets posted a staggering 22 offensive rebounds.
Kevin Durant scored 31 points against the Hawks. Durant averages 26.5 points and 5.4 rebounds, and Alperen Sengun tallies 21.1 points, 9.1 boards, and 6.3 assists per game. Steven Adams (5.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG) is done for the season with an ankle injury, while Tari Eason (11.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is questionable for Saturday’s game against Dallas.
The Rockets are fourth in the West, just one game ahead of the No. 7 seed. Houston scores 119.0 points per 100 possessions (5th in the NBA) and surrenders 112.8 points in return (also 5th). The Rockets make 37.0% of their shots from beyond the 3-point line (tied for 7th).
Mavericks vs. Rockets Pick
Spread Pick for Mavericks vs. Rockets
- Houston Rockets (4 units)
Four weeks ago, Anthony Davis tortured the Rockets for 26 points, 12 rebounds, and five blocks. Now, Davis is on the shelf, and I expect the Rockets to get revenge. Houston is arguably a better and deeper team than Dallas.
The Mavericks lean on their defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Rockets’ offense is elite, and Houston leads the NBA in offensive rebound percentage (36.5%). Moreover, the Rockets’ defense has done a good job over the last eight games, allowing 107.6 points per 100 possessions.
Over/Under Pick for Mavericks vs. Rockets
- Under (4 units)
The Rockets play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA, tallying 96.0 possessions per 48 minutes, whereas the Mavericks register 101.8 possessions per 48 minutes (tied for 3rd in the league). Dallas will try to speed things up, but it’s hard to trust the Mavericks’ offense to score enough to push the total over the line.
The Mavericks need to bring their best defense if they want to beat the Rockets on the road. Five of their last seven encounters have gone under the total. Also, the under is 8-1 in the Rockets’ last nine games overall and 5-0 in their previous five showings at home.
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