Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat, Picks and Prediction, Monday, Nov. 24, 2025
The NBA is on tap on Monday night in this Mavs vs. Heat prediction. Tyler Herro is expected to make his season debut for the 11-6 Heat, who have stayed afloat in the East with four straight wins. Dallas has been a mess as they've opened wth a 5-13 record, fired GM Nico Harrison and continue to wait for Anthony Davis to return so they can potentially trade him. Miami is a 7.5-point favorite, and the total is 240.5. Check out this prediction and other NBA and College Basketball Picks at Winners and Whiners.
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Mavs are struggling
Dallas lost at home to another struggling team, Memphis, 102-96, on Saturday. The Mavs were pounded on the glass 61-41 and allowed 23 offensive rebounds. The bright side was the play of veteran Klay Thompson with 22 points and six 3-pointers of the bench. The problems for the Mavs are on their injury list. Davis (calf) is doubtful, Dereck Lively II (knee) is out, PJ Washington (back) has been hampered and guard Dante Exum (knee) is out for the season.
Davis is not too far from returning, which will help a young player in Cooper Flagg, who had 12 points and seven boards against Memphis, but shot just 4 of 15 from the field. The 18-year-old rookie from Duke is having a solid but unspectacular early season with 16.1 points and 6.1 rebounds, while shooting 45.7% from the field and 27.7% from long range.
Dallas is ranked 6th in field goal defense at 45.2%. They are having issues shooting the ball as they rank 26th in field goal percentage (44.4%) and 32% from long range (29th).
Key Injury Report for Mavericks
- F PJ Washington (back) is day-to-day.
- F Anthony Davis (calf) is doubtful.
- G Brandon Williams (back) is questionable.
- C Dereck Lively (knee) is out.
Miami is heating up
Good news, bad news for Miami. Guard Tyler Herro is expected to play tonight after undergoing offseason ankle surgery in mid-September. The bad news is that leading scorer Norman Powell re-injured his groin despite going for 32 points in Sunday's win over Philadelphia (127-117). Jaime Jacquez Jr. added 22 points off the bench on 10-of-12 shooting, while Davion Mitchell dished out 12 assists.
With Powell possibly out for awhile, that means Mitchell stays in the lineup with Herro as the shooting guard. Powell has held the team together with Herro out, leading the team with 25.4 points per game on 50% shooting (46.4% 3pt). Center Bam Adebayo adds 19.5 points and 8.4 rebounds. But he can move to power forward because Kel'el Ware (7-0, 230) can move to center. The second-year big man from Indiana adds 12 points and 10.6 rebounds per game.
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Key Injury Report for Heat:
- G Norman Powell (groin) is out.
Spread Pick for Mavs vs. Heat
Mavericks vs. Heat Predictions and Pick
- Miami -7.5 (4 units)
Miami is on the second of a back-to-back but Herro will be fresh. Dallas has covered just once of their last four games. After getting dominated on the boards, they now have to face a tough frontcourt of Adebayo and Ware, who are elite rebounders. Miami is also third in Adjusted Defensive Rating according to DunksandThrees.com. Dallas is just not the same team without Davis and Lively in the paint.
- Under 240.5
Miami is tops in pace, but they are coming off a game on Sunday so they won't be able to push it quite as much. Herro may be a bit rusty early on and while this might not be a rock fight, I see Miami controlling the boards, especially on the offensive side, because the Heat will miss Powell's marksmanship. Dallas has gone under in four straight
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