Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction for Monday, November 17, 2025
Use Code WWWC Dallas Mavericks (3-10) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5)
The 2025-26 NBA season goes on Monday, November 17, with the Dallas Mavericks taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference battle at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN, and we’ve got the Mavericks vs. Timberwolves prediction to get you covered.
Dallas and Minnesota open their four-game regular-season series. Last season, they played a three-game set, and the Timberwolves went 2-1 SU and ATS, winning a couple of games at American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Read more about this Mavericks vs. Timberwolves prediction, and check out all our NBA picks for Monday night. The tip-off at Target Center is set at 8:00 PM ET. Sunday’s games have been excluded from this preview, and the Mavericks hosted the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday night.
The Mavericks continue to struggle
The Dallas Mavericks were looking to stop a three-game slide on Sunday. They’ve only won one of their previous eight games overall, and after snapping a four-game skid with a 111-105 victory over the lowly Washington Wizards, the Mavs have dropped three straight contests against the Milwaukee Bucks 116-114, the Phoenix Suns 123-114, and the LA Clippers 133-127 in double overtime.
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Last Friday, the Mavs made just 10 of their 36 shots from deep in that heartbreaking loss to the Clippers. Dallas posted an ugly 18/25 assist-to-turnover ratio and missed nine of its 38 attempts from the foul line. Naji Marshall and D’Angelo Russell scored 28 points each, while Cooper Flagg had 16 points and five rebounds. Anthony Davis (20.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG) missed his eighth straight game with a calf injury.
Davis was doubtful for Sunday’s clash against Portland, while P.J. Washington (14.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG) was listed as probable after missing the Clippers game with a shoulder injury. The Mavericks desperately need more from their offense, as they score just 104.6 points per 100 possessions (30th in the NBA). Dallas makes only 9.8 3-pointers per 100 possessions (30th) on a 30.1 percentage clip (29th).
Key Injury Report for Dallas
- F Anthony Davis (calf) is out 7-10 days.
- G Dante Exu (knee) is out.
The Timberwolves look for a bounce-back performance
The Minnesota Timberwolves put an end to their four-game winning streak last Saturday. After consecutive victories over the Utah Jazz, 137-97 and 120-113, and the Sacramento Kings, 144-117 and 124-110, the T-Wolves suffered a 123-112 home defeat against the red-hot Denver Nuggets.
Minnesota outscored Denver 58-42 in the paint, but the Timberwolves went 10-for-34 from downtown and gave up 38 free-throw attempts to the Nuggets. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle accounted for 26 points each, while Naz Reid added 19 points off the bench.
The Timberwolves score 120.0 points per 100 possessions (4th in the NBA) and allow 115.2 points in return (115.2). They make 13.8 3-pointers per 100 possessions (tied for 8th) on a 39.1 percentage clip (4th). The T-Wolves need to do a better job on the glass, as they rank 23rd in the league in defensive rebound percentage (71.6%).
Key Injury Report for Minnesota
none
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Pick
Spread Pick for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
- Minnesota Timberwolves -14 (4 units)
I’m not going to overthink this game at all. The Mavericks rank third in the NBA in adjusted defensive efficiency (110.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), but their offense has been horrendous so far this season.
This is a tough spot for the Mavs, who will have to deal with fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back. Anthony Davis will probably remain on the shelf, but even if he returns, the Mavericks will have a tall task to contain the Timberwolves.
Minnesota put on a disappointing performance against Denver, and I expect the Timberwolves to bounce back. Their defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the Timberwolves have plenty of offensive weapons to deal with the Mavericks.
Over/Under Pick for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
- Over 231 (4 units)
The Mavericks play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA, recording 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes. Their 3-point shooting is awful, but the Mavs love to attack the paint and rank third in the NBA in free-throw rate (.321).
On the other side, the Timberwolves are ninth in free-throw rate (.304), 15th in 3-point rate (.411), and 14th in pace (100.6). They won’t hesitate to push the ball in transition and try to take advantage of the Mavericks’ tough schedule.
The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between Dallas and Minnesota, and I will ride this betting trend.
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