Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers Picks and Prediction for Monday, December 29, 2025
Dallas Mavericks (12-21) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (12-19)
The NBA betting action goes on Monday, December 29, 2025, with the 11-game card, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Western Conference showdown from Moda Center in Portland, OR, to get you the Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers prediction.
Dallas takes on Portland for the second time this season. Last month, the Mavericks outlasted the Trail Blazers 138-133 in overtime, playing as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Mavs have dominated the Blazers lately, going 8-1 and 7-2 ATS in their previous nine encounters.
Read more about this Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers prediction, and make sure to check out all our NBA picks for Monday night. The tip-off at Moda Center is set at 10:30 PM ET. Sunday’s games have been excluded from the analysis, and the Blazers hosted the Boston Celtics on Sunday night.
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The Mavericks are back to losing ways
The Dallas Mavericks have only won one of their last five games overall. During that stretch, the Mavs have recorded a 131-130 home win over the Denver Nuggets while dropping four road contests against the Philadelphia 76ers 121-114, the New Orleans Pelicans 119-113, the Golden State Warriors 126-116, and the Sacramento Kings 113-107.
The Mavericks are coming off Friday’s loss at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. They committed 10 more turnovers than the Kings (21-11) and conceded 28 points off turnovers, which cost them a victory. Dallas went 13-for-27 from downtown, and Cooper Flagg led the way with 23 points, six rebounds, and five assists.
Flagg has done a great job over his last eight games, averaging 26.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. Anthony Davis (20.5 PPG, 10.9 RPG) missed the Kings game due to right adductor soreness and is questionable for Monday night.
The Mavericks lean on their defense, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions (9th in the NBA). Their offense has struggled thus far, notching 110.0 points per 100 possessions (28th). The Mavs make just 33.7% of their shots from deep (also 28th).
The Trail Blazers have struggled lately, too
The Portland Trail Blazers were looking to snap their three-game skid on Sunday, hosting the Boston Celtics as 7-point underdogs. In their previous three outings, the Trail Blazers have recorded three home defeats against the Detroit Pistons 110-102, the Orlando Magic 110-106, and the LA Clippers 119-103.
Last Friday, the Blazers allowed 20 3-pointers and 31 free-throw attempts to the Clippers, who covered a 2.5-point spread with ease. Portland went 16-for-39 from beyond the arc and 15-for-22 from the foul line. Deni Avdija led the way for the Blazers with 29 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.
Avdija is having a wonderful season, averaging 25.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.6 assists. The Blazers have struggled with injuries lately, and Jerami Grant (20.0 PPG), Jrue Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG), and Robert Williams III (6.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG) were all set to miss Sunday’s game against Boston. Scoot Henderson is still recovering from a hamstring injury and has yet to make his season debut.
The Trail Blazers score 113.9 points per 100 possessions (22nd in the NBA) and surrender 117.7 points in return (21st). They are sixth in the league in 3-point rate (.451), but the Blazers hit just 33.3% of their shots from deep (29th).
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Spread Pick for Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers
- Dallas Mavericks (4 units)
The Mavericks held the Trail Blazers to 40.7% shooting from the field in their first meeting of the season. Dallas missed 13 of its 40 attempts from the foul line, but the Mavs found a way to prevail over the Blazers in overtime. The Mavs missed Anthony Davis, while the Blazers were without Jrue Holiday.
I expect another tight battle between these two teams. Dallas is arguably a better defensive team than Portland, which is the reason why I’m going with the Mavericks. No team allows fewer 3-pointers per 100 possessions than the Mavericks, who lead the league in opposing 3-point percentage (33.3%), too.
Over/Under Pick for Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers
- Over (4 units)
The Mavericks rely on their defense, but they love to play fast. Dallas is sixth in the NBA in pace with 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes, right behind Portland (101.7).
The over has hit in 12 of the last 13 encounters between Dallas and Portland, and I will ride this betting trend. Both teams prefer to push the ball in transition, and their first duel in 2025-26 produced 236 points in regulation.
The Trail Blazers might not hit a lot of shots from beyond the arc against Dallas, but they will attack the paint and look to get to the free-throw line as much as possible. Portland is third in the league in free-throw rate (.311), and Dallas is 12th in this category (.285).
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