Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Thursday, January 8, 2026
Use Code WWWC We have a Western Conference matchup in this Mavs vs. Jazz prediction from Salt Lake City on Thursday night. The Jazz are having a rough time right now at 12-23, while Dallas is not much better at 13-23. These teams just met on Dec. 15, with Utah winning 140-133 in overtime as a 1-point dog. Utah (12-23) played Oklahoma City the night before, so that late game will not be included in this write-up. Dallas (14-23) is a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 241.5. Check out more free NBA and college basketball odds, picks and predictions from Winners and Whiners.
AD can still play
When Anthony Davis is healthy, he's still one of the best big men in the NBA. The 32-year-old former LA Laker scored 19 points and grabbed 16 boards with two blocks in Dallas' 100-98 win over Sacramento on Jan. 6. Before that win, the Mavs upset Houston on the road, 110-104, and Davis was at his dominant best, recording 26 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks on Jan. 3. With Dallas essentially going nowhere, Davis is on the radar of several contending teams.
But buyer beware of a talented big man who has played in just 19 games this season (20.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg) and has not played in 62 or more games in just two of his last nine seasons. Dallas can also hold on to Davis and attempt to make the playoffs. They're ranked 23rd by DunksandThrees.com in Adjusted Net Rating, 28th in Adjusted Offense and 9th in Adjusted Defense.
The big problem has been the lack of a point guard with Kyrie Irving (knee) out at least until the All-Star break and Dante Exum (knee) out for the season. They've tried to make do with veteran D'Angelo Russell (10.2 ppg, 4 apg) and rookie Cooper Flagg (18.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 4.2 apg) running the point with mixed results. Forward P.J. Washington (14.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg), another valuable rotation player, is listed as doubtful for this game with an ankle injury.
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Jazz finish a tough road trip
Utah is near the bottom in most categories, but they are ranked second in strength of schedule. Before they played OKC on Wednesday night on the road, the Jazz had lost four straight to Portland, Golden State, and at the Clippers, along with Boston at home. Yet somehow in that stretch, they also beat the Spurs on the road and Detroit at home.
The good news is that Utah is relatively healthy, especially their stars Lauri Markkanen (27.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Keyonte George (24.3 ppg, 6.8 apg). The problem is outside of those players; Utah has very little offensive production as their third-leading scorer is veteran big man Jusuf Nurkic, who averages 10.3 ppg and 9.6 rpg.
Utah's biggest weakness is their three-point defense (27th), allowing opponents to shoot 37.6% from the field and they rank last in the league in points allowed per game (127.1). On DunksandThrees.com, the Jazz rank 26th in Adjusted Net Rating, 15th in Adjusted Offense and 30th in Adjusted Defense.
Spread Pick, Odds and Prediction for Mavs vs. Jazz
Mavericks vs. Jazz Prediction and Pick
- Dallas -5.5 (4 units)
When Anthony Davis is healthy, the Mavs are a playoff team in the Western Conference. They are 10-9 this season with Davis and were 6-3 last season with him after the Lakers trade. Utah just played a very difficult game against the Thunder the night before and their defense is atrocious, ranking 29th in the league in field goal defense (49.2%). It won't help that they'll have tired legs trying to keep up with SGA and OKC. Dallas will take advantage.
- Under 241.5 (4 units)
Even though the first game went over the total, it was an overtime game. Their last six meetings before that game went under. Both teams want to push the pace, but if you're Dallas and you have Davis in the game against Nurkic, you need to get him the ball in the halfcourt and take him to school in the paint. Dallas has gone under in three straight and four of their last five games. Utah has gone under in four of their last five.
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