Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions, Tuesday, December 23rd, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Denver Nuggets (20-7) and the Dallas Mavericks (11-18) meet on national television on Tuesday night in a Western Conference showdown in this Nuggets vs. Mavericks prediction. Both teams will be on the tail end of a back to back, as Denver hosts Utah on Monday, while Dallas is in New Orleans (Note: This article was published before Monday's results). These teams met in early December with the Mavericks winning by ten at as 11.5-point dogs. Tipoff is set for 8:00 EST and can be found on NBC. Keep reading to see our Nuggets vs. Mavericks prediction, and check out all of our winning NBA Picks!
Denver Sits in Third Place
The Western Conference has been dominated by the Oklahoma City Thunder to start the season, so much so that it has minimized some of the strong play of the other top teams in the conference, including the Denver Nuggets. Denver is third in the West with a 20-7 record, and are coming off a stretch where they won six of seven games before finally going down to the Rockets. In that Houston game, Denver lost by 14 despite getting 25 points from Nikola Jokic.
Jokic continues to put up numbers that would have seemed impossible ten years ago, the big man is averaging a triple-double with 29.4 PPG, 12.1 RPG and 10.7 APG. He is shooting the ball efficiently as he connects on 60.5% of his field goals, and 42.1% of his three pointers. Jokic is a capable defender, and is leading the team with 1.4 steals per game while protecting the paint. Jamal Murray has been healthy this season, he is scoring well with 24.8 points per game while dishing out 6.7 APG and controlling most of the ballhandling duties. Denver has been making due without their power forward, as Aaron Gordon is still out with his hamstring injury while will likely sideline him until the new year. Tim Hardaway Jr. is in his first season with the Nuggets and is getting 12.0 PPG while typically coming off the bench.
Cameron Johnson came over from Brooklyn in the offseason to take on Michael Porter Jr.'s old role, he has not scored quite as much as he is getting 11.5 PPG. Christian Braun is another typical starter who is sidelined with an injury, Peyton Watson has been filling in the starting lineup and contributing 10.5 PPG. The Nuggets are 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, but just 22nd in defensive efficiency according to dunksandthrees.com. Denver is 22nd in the league in pace of play, based upon their average amount of possessions per game.
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Mavericks Look to Control Series
The Dallas Mavericks were double-digit underdogs last time they tipped off against Denver, but came away with a 10-point victory. Anthony Davis played a big role in that game, going for 32 points and 13 rebounds, while rookie Cooper Flagg added another 24 points and eight boards. The Mavericks will look to use their size again to battle the Nuggets in the paint. The Mavericks are currently 11th in the Western Conference, but are just 1.5-games out of that final playoff spot early in the season. In their most recent game, they fell on the road against the 76ers, as Davis led the way again with 24 points and 15 boards.
The often injured Davis has played in just 13 games this season, he is not on the injury report at the moment, but considering this is the tail end of a back to back, resting is not out of the question. The Mavericks will want him to play, as he is their best chance to slow down Jokic. So far this year, Davis is averaging 19.9 PPG and 11.2 RPG, leading the team in both categories. Cooper Flagg began the season at the point guard spot, but has transitioned back to the wing as Ryan Nembhard has been in the starting lineup recently. Flagg continues to improve, as he is averaging 18.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 3.5 APG. He has scored 20 or more in each of his last four games, but is listed as questionable with a back contusion. P.J. Washington helps to stretch the defense, the forward is getting 16.0 PPG and can score inside or out.
Ryan Nembhard has been adding 8.4 PPG while handling the point, and Naji Marshall has been rounding out the starting lineup with his 13.2 PPG. The Mavericks rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas plays faster than Denver, ranking 5th in the league in possessions per game.
Injury Report for Nuggets vs. Mavericks:
Nuggets:
- Out: Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun
- Questionable: Peyton Watson
Mavericks:
- Out: Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II
- Questionable: Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Max Christie
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Nuggets vs. Mavericks
- Nuggets to cover (5 units)
Both teams are on the tail end of a back to back, and both teams have to travel, so the schedule does not favor either squad in this matchup. Dallas is banged up, and their roster has been more depleted by injuries, which will make the difference here as the depth of each team is challenged. Dallas is already without Kyrie and Lively, two high level players, but several other key contributors are battling minor injuries. Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson and Max Christie are all on the injury list, and the second game of a back to back is not the spot to trust players with injuries. Denver has their fair share of injuries too, but Jokic and Murray will be on the floor, and have enough help around them to cover this game. Denver lost their first matchup with Dallas, but Jokic still had his way in the middle as he put up a monstrous 29-point, 20-rebound and 13-assist stat line. Expect another big performance in this one as Denver gets revenge for their early December loss.
Take the Nuggets to cover
Over/Under Pick for Nuggets vs. Mavericks
- Under (4 units)
Too many injuries in this one to trust either squad to put up a big number, add in the grueling travel schedule and this will clearly hit the under. As mentioned above, many players on each team are on the injury list, which will have each team going deep into their rotation and playing guys that typically do not get heavy minutes. Denver plays slow naturally, as getting Jokic involved is their top priority, which causes the game to slow down. Jokic will often set up the offense, or facilitate through the high post going deep into the shot clock. Dallas will be happy to play slow in this one, as they want to limit possessions in order to keep this game close late. Both teams play on Christmas, and will want to be healthy for that showcase, expect a lot of bench players getting heavy minutes in an under.
Take the under.
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