Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday January 14 2026
Use Code WWWC Western Conference NBA action on Wednesday evening, and we have a Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks prediction locked and loaded for you. The Nuggets enter this game off a 122-116 road win over New Orleans to move to 27-13 on the year. Dallas checks in off a 113-105 home win over brooklyn to move to 15-25 on the season. Dallas has taken the first two games of this series. Read on to see our Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction.
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Nuggets Squeak By Pelicans On The Road
Denver rolls into Wednesday feeling pretty good about itself after a 122–116 road win over the Pelicans, a game where Jamal Murray and Peyton Watson completely took over late. Murray finished with 35 points and nine assists, scoring 12 in the fourth quarter, while Watson added 31 points, seven boards, and five assists, including the tiebreaking jumper with 39 seconds left. Even without Nikola Jokić, Denver looked like the more composed team down the stretch, overcoming a 65–60 halftime deficit and surviving a night where they were outrebounded 50–33. The Nuggets’ season-long profile remains elite on the offensive end—122.7 points per game (1st), 50.2% shooting (1st), and 40.2% from three (1st)—and they’ve now won four of their last five to move to 27–13. Defensively, they’re still middle-tier statistically, but they defend the arc well enough and force opponents into tough late-clock possessions when they’re locked in.
Against Dallas, the keys are pretty straightforward: keep the ball moving, lean on their shooting advantage, and avoid the defensive lapses that show up when Jokić isn’t there to organize everything. The Mavericks defend the three better than anyone in the league, so Denver will need Murray’s pace control and Watson’s downhill aggression to generate quality looks rather than settling early in the clock. Rebounding becomes a major storyline too—Denver can’t afford to get bullied on the glass again after the Pelicans game, especially against a Dallas team that struggles in that area. If the Nuggets keep turnovers down, get another strong night from their secondary scorers, and maintain the offensive rhythm they’ve shown during this stretch, they’re built to keep rolling even without their MVP.
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Flagg Leads Mavericks Over Nets
Dallas comes into Wednesday off a 113–105 home win over the Nets, a night where they finally closed a game cleanly and snapped a brief skid. Cooper Flagg set the tone early and finished with 27 points and three steals, while Naji Marshall delivered 22 points, including three straight baskets in the final minutes to put the game away. Klay Thompson added 18 points and six threes off the bench, giving Dallas the perimeter punch they’ve lacked in stretches. Even with four injured starters out, the Mavericks shot the ball well enough, defended the arc, and never let Brooklyn get over the hump after the Nets cut the lead to 99–95 with five minutes left. Still, at 15–25, this is a team that has struggled to find consistency on either end, ranking just 24th in scoring (113.0 ppg) and 26th in three‑point shooting (34.0%).
Against Denver, the margins tighten quickly. The Nuggets are the best shooting team in the league across the board, so Dallas’ biggest defensive strength—No. 1 in opponent three‑point percentage at 32.9%—will be tested immediately. The bigger concern is rebounding: the Mavericks sit 29th in defensive rebounding, and that weakness has repeatedly cost them in close games. Offensively, they’ll need Flagg and Marshall to stay aggressive, because trading efficiency with Denver is a losing battle, especially with the Nuggets shooting 50.2% from the field and 40.2% from deep. If Dallas can slow the pace, protect the ball, and turn this into a halfcourt game where their perimeter defense matters, they can hang around. But if it becomes a rhythm game or a shooting contest, Denver’s firepower will overwhelm them quickly.
Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Pick
Nuggets vs Mavericks Spread Pick
- Denver PK (4 Units)
Denver in a pick’em feels like the right side because even without Jokic, they’ve shown a much higher floor than Dallas and a level of late‑game composure the Mavericks just haven’t matched all season. The Nuggets have won four of five by leaning on elite shooting and Murray’s ability to control tempo, and they’re coming off a road win in New Orleans where they closed with real authority. Dallas, meanwhile, is still 15–25 for a reason — they defend the three well but get crushed on the glass, struggle to generate consistent offense, and rarely string together 48 clean minutes. Denver’s efficiency travels, their role players have stepped up in Jokic’s absence, and if this game comes down to execution in the final five minutes, the Nuggets have far more trustworthy options.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Over/Under Pick
- Under 225.5 (5 Units)
The Under 225.5 makes plenty of sense because this matchup has all the ingredients for a slower, more possession‑by‑possession game than the number suggests. Denver plays with a naturally controlled tempo even when Jokic is out, and their offense without him leans more on Murray creating in the halfcourt than on quick early‑clock shots. Dallas, meanwhile, isn’t built to push pace — they’re a bottom‑tier rebounding team that needs the game to stay organized so they don’t get exposed on second‑chance points. Add in that the Mavericks defend the three better than anyone in the league, which tends to drag opponents into longer possessions, and you get a matchup where both teams are more likely to grind than run. Denver’s efficiency is elite, but their games without Jokic often settle into the low‑220s rhythm‑wise, and Dallas doesn’t have the firepower to force a shootout on their own. This one shapes up more like a tactical, halfcourt game than a track meet.
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