Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday November 14 2026

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans picks for Saturday, November 14, start with the way Nikola Jokic can pull apart a defense that just gave up 142 points. Denver is laying a big number, but New Orleans is on short rest and has struggled to stop paint touches. The Nuggets can cover if they keep making the Pelicans rotate before Murray attacks.

The betting decision starts with New Orleans' ability to protect the basket and contain Denver's passing game. If the Pelicans cannot provide resistance at the point of attack, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray can build a lead without requiring an unusually hot outside shooting night.

Best Available Odds for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

• Moneyline: Denver -556 | New Orleans +417
• Spread: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (-113 DraftKings public board). This is a dated bookmaker snapshot, not a confirmed available betslip offer.
• Total: 234.5 (Over -113 / Under -107). These are observed pregame references and can change.

Game Info

• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Tipoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
• Records: Denver 6-4; New Orleans 4-9

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Matchup Preview

New Orleans had not submitted its official game-day injury report at the 3:45 a.m. ET cutoff. Denver lists Julian Strawther OUT with a left knee sprain; DaRon Holmes II, Ryan Nembhard and Cam Whitmore are out on G League/two-way assignments. Do not infer Pelicans availability from the missing report.

Denver Nuggets: Jokic Controls the Half-Court Game

The Nuggets come off Wednesday's 123-118 road victory over Memphis, a game in which Murray finished with 30 points and eight assists. Jokic supplied 27 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, while Cameron Johnson added 23. Denver shot 50 percent from the floor and made 14 threes, but the more revealing number was how many quality possessions came from moving the defense before attacking. Jokic can initiate from the elbow, get two defenders to commit and find a cutter or open shooter without forcing the ball into traffic.

That approach matters against a Pelicans group that has struggled to hold its structure after the first defensive action breaks down. When New Orleans collapses on Jokic, Murray can attack a scrambling closeout. When defenders stay attached to shooters, Jokic gets room to operate inside. Aaron Gordon's finishing and Christian Braun's cuts provide further problems, even if Denver's bench scoring remains inconsistent. Julian Strawther is listed out with a knee sprain, but the Nuggets' first-unit creation is the major factor in this matchup.

New Orleans Pelicans: Pressure Builds After Another Blowout

New Orleans lost 142-111 to Memphis on Friday, falling to 4-9 and stretching its losing streak to five games. The Grizzlies scored at least 35 points in three consecutive quarters and repeatedly found space beyond the arc. Saddiq Bey produced 30 points and 10 rebounds, and Zion Williamson added 22, but those individual contributions were not enough to offset a defense that had trouble contesting both perimeter looks and shots near the basket.

The Pelicans have ways to score. Williamson remains dangerous when he gets downhill, Jeremiah Fears can create off the dribble, and Jordan Poole supplies a different shot-making threat. They also draw plenty of contact. But the ability to generate free throws does not solve the broader problem of giving up comfortable looks at the other end. New Orleans will have to defend Jokic's passes while simultaneously keeping Murray out of the paint, a difficult task even for a rested team.

The immediate schedule is another problem. New Orleans played Friday and returns for a Saturday home game, while Denver has had several days to prepare. The Pelicans' full game-day injury submission was still outstanding in the early official report. That uncertainty is important, especially with rotation questions around the supporting cast, and all late availability decisions require a fresh check.

Odds and Line Movement

The public market makes Denver an 11.5-point favorite, with the total around 234.5. Denver is heavily favored across the early sportsbook prices I reviewed. I am not going to oversell a few cents of movement when the biggest question is whether the Pelicans can get enough stops. My pick is tied to Nuggets -11.5, not a worse number that might show up later.

Game Thesis: Denver has the superior method for creating repeatable half-court offense, and New Orleans' defensive lapses could turn ordinary Nuggets possessions into high-percentage shots. The home team can score enough to compete for stretches, but it may not have enough stops to keep the final margin close.

Best Bet: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (-113 DraftKings early board)

The Nuggets -11.5 is the recommended play. Jokic's ability to punish switches and help defenders should test a New Orleans defense that surrendered 142 points only one night earlier. Denver also has the advantage of extra preparation, while the Pelicans must respond quickly after a draining loss. A team that consistently gets the ball into the paint and generates open jumpers does not need extraordinary shooting to separate from this opponent.

A spread this large is never automatic, particularly with Denver's occasional second-unit scoring droughts and Williamson's ability to manufacture free throws. Even with that risk, Denver offers the cleaner shot profile and more credible defensive floor. The recommendation is strongest at -11.5, and a move toward -13.5 would materially reduce its appeal.

Final Prediction: Denver Nuggets 124, New Orleans Pelicans 108

New Orleans should create some offense through Williamson and second-chance chances, but Denver's passing and rested starters are positioned to generate a much more consistent 48 minutes. The projected 16-point Nuggets win clears the listed spread, with 232 combined points falling just below the observed total. Final Pick: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (-113).

See more NBA picks and predictions for Saturday's other games.