Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors Picks and Prediction for Wednesday December 31 2025
The Denver Nuggets head north of the border to face the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday night, with tip-off set for 7:30 PM ET and local coverage listed as Altitude 2 Sports. Before we get into the full breakdown, make sure you check out our other free NBA picks, where we’re breaking down every matchup on the slate using the same resource-only format you see here.
This game is fascinating because the surface-level record suggests Denver should be the stronger side — but the betting market, the matchup predictor, and the injury report all pull this matchup in Toronto’s direction. That mix creates a very clear decision point: do you trust Denver’s season-long scoring power, or do you price in the absence of their superstar and the current road skid?
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Game Information and Betting Snapshot
Denver Nuggets (22–10, 12–5 Away) vs Toronto Raptors (20–14, 10–7 Home)
- Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
- TV: Altitude 2 Sports
- Spread: Toronto -7.5 (Denver +7.5)
- Total: 224.5
- Moneyline: Denver +235 | Toronto -290
Toronto is being priced as the clear favourite, and the matchup predictor agrees emphatically — despite Denver owning the better record overall.
Denver’s Identity Check: Elite Scoring Numbers Meet a Brutal Injury Headline
Denver comes into this one at 22–10 with an impressive 12–5 road record, but their current form has been trending the wrong way. They’re on a two-game losing streak (L2) and their last five includes multiple close losses plus one massive blowout-type final:
- L 147–123 at Miami (12/29)
- L 127–126 at Orlando (12/27)
- W 142–138 OT vs Minnesota (12/25)
- L 131–130 at Dallas (12/23)
- W 135–112 vs Utah (12/22)
That Miami result jumps off the page because it highlights Denver’s defensive vulnerability in this stretch. In fact, Denver’s team stat profile supports that concern: they score 125.7 points per game (huge), but they also allow 118.5, which is the kind of defensive number that can make any road game uncomfortable.
The efficiency is there — Denver shoots 51% from the field — and they move the ball well at 29.7 assists per game. But the real story is that this matchup, as listed, is not being played under normal Denver conditions.
Key Injuries – Denver Nuggets
- Julian Strawther (G): GTD (Dec 31)
- Nikola Jokic (C): OUT (Feb 1)
- Aaron Gordon (F): OUT (Jan 5)
- Christian Braun (G): OUT (Jan 5)
- Cameron Johnson (F): OUT (Jan 22)
The biggest possible swing factor is right there in black and white: Nikola Jokic is listed OUT. He’s also listed as Denver’s season leader at 29.9 PPG on 60.4% shooting with 85.5% free throws, which tells you just how much of Denver’s offensive “certainty” is built around him.
So when you see a Denver team averaging 125.7 PPG on the season, but their top producer is out, you have to treat those season numbers as less predictive for this specific matchup. Denver can still score — their recent game results show they can reach the 120s even in losses — but you can’t assume their usual efficiency without their top engine.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Toronto’s Case: More Balanced Margin and a Market/Model Stamp of Approval
Toronto enters at 20–14 with a strong 10–7 home record, and they’re coming in on a two-game win streak (W2). Their recent stretch is a mixed bag, but it includes two wins that show both ends of the spectrum: one high-scoring OT win and one tight, grindy finish.
- W 107–106 vs Orlando (12/29)
- W 141–127 OT vs Golden State (12/28)
- L 138–117 at Washington (12/26)
- W 112–91 at Miami (12/23)
- L 96–81 at Brooklyn (12/21)
That run matters for both bets. Toronto has demonstrated they can play a one-possession defensive game (107–106) and also get dragged into a “scoreboard marathon” (141–127 OT). In other words, their outcomes are variable — but they’ve shown they can win in different game scripts.
From the team stats you provided, Toronto averages 114.1 points per game and allows 112.7, giving them a positive margin. They shoot 48% from the field, rebound at 43.0 per game, and share it at 29.4 assists, which is almost identical to Denver’s assist rate. They also generate defensive disruptions with 8.7 steals and 4.4 blocks per game, which becomes more meaningful when the opposing team is missing a primary creator.
Toronto’s listed season leader is Brandon Ingram at 21.9 PPG on 46.6% shooting and 81.4% free throws. That scoring number is lower than the elite top-end stars in other matchups — but Toronto’s advantage here is more about stability and margin than one single overwhelming scoring profile.
Key Injuries – Toronto Raptors
- Jakob Poeltl (C): OUT (Jan 7)
Poeltl being out matters, especially on the glass and interior defence, but Toronto’s team profile still grades out cleanly, and the spread suggests the market believes they can cover even with that absence.
What the Provided Data Says About Pace and Scoring
The total is set at 224.5, which is noticeably lower than the massive totals you’ll see when two high-output teams collide. That number makes sense when you line up what you’ve provided:
- Toronto scores 114.1 and allows 112.7 — that’s a profile that often lands in the low-to-mid 220s.
- Denver’s season averages are much higher (125.7 scored, 118.5 allowed), but their key season leader is listed OUT, which creates uncertainty about whether Denver can hit their typical offensive ceiling.
Recent results show Denver has been involved in games soaring above 224.5 (like 147–123 and 142–138 OT), but Toronto has also played games well below it (96–81, 112–91). That’s why this total is the more delicate bet: one team’s recent results scream “over,” while the other team’s recent results include both defensive grinders and track meets.
The spread, however, is much clearer: Toronto -7.5 suggests the expectation is a Toronto-controlled game, likely helped by Denver’s injury list and current road slide note in the preview heading.
Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors Pick
Against the Spread Pick: Toronto Raptors -7.5
I’m backing Toronto -7.5 because the resources provided all point in the same direction: the matchup predictor heavily favours Toronto (67.9%), Toronto is at home (10–7), and Denver is dealing with a major availability issue with Nikola Jokic listed OUT, plus additional key rotation players also listed OUT (Gordon, Braun, and Cameron Johnson). Denver’s recent results also show defensive instability (allowing 147 at Miami), and laying 7.5 becomes much more reasonable when the opponent is missing its top season leader scorer.
Total Pick: Under 224.5
I’m taking the under because Toronto’s team profile leans more controlled (114.1 scored, 112.7 allowed), and Denver’s season-long scoring power becomes less reliable with Jokic listed OUT. Toronto has shown recently that they can win lower-scoring games (107–106, 112–91, 96–81), and if they’re able to dictate tempo at home — especially against a Denver team missing its primary offensive engine — 224.5 is a number that can stay just out of reach even if Toronto has a solid night.
Final Prediction
With Toronto’s matchup projection advantage, home-court edge, and Denver’s injury list headlined by Jokic being out, the safest read is that Toronto controls the game and covers a number that’s been set for a reason.
Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors 116, Denver Nuggets 104
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