Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks, Picks and Prediction for Thursday, January 22, 2026
Use Code WWWC In a battle of injury-plagued Western Conference teams, let's get to this Warriors vs. Mavs prediction on Thursday night. Golden State (25-20) is in eighth place in the Western Conference, but its playoff hopes took a huge hit on Wednesday when they found out that Jimmy Butler tore his ACL. Butler was injured against Miami in the Warriors' 135-112 win on Monday. The Mavs, who have been playing without star big man Anthony Davis, have somehow won three straight and three of four games. They find themselves in 12th place in the West, 2.5 games behind the 10th-place LA Clippers. These teams met on Christmas Day with the Warriors winning 126-116 as a 9.0-point favorite. Golden State is a 3.5-point favorite, while the total is 231.5. Check out more free NBA Picks and College Basketball predictions at Winners and Whiners.
Time for Kuminga to step up
At 36, Butler was still a very productive player, averaging 20 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists, while shooting 51.9% from the field and 37.6% from the three-point line. His injury means an opportunity for someone else and that player is Jonathan Kuminga (6-7, 225). The 23-year old is roughly the same size as Butler and much more athletic. However, he did not play due to a coach's decision for 16 straight games before scoring 20 points in 21 minutes on Tuesday, in the Warriors' 145-127 loss at home to Toronto. Buddy Hield was the leading scorer for Golden State with 25 points in 19 minutes off the bench.
This was a day after the win over the Heat and the Butler injury. The Warriors didn't respond well, as they were down 70-50 at halftime and never recovered. All is not lost for Golden State, which still has Stephen Curry (27.1 ppg, 5.1 apg) and will need Hield (8.1 ppg), Kuminga (12.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Brandin Podziemski (12.3 ppg, 3.2 apg) to step up.
According to DunksandThrees.com, the Warriors rank eighth in Adjusted Net Rating, 12th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, and third in Adjusted Defensive Rating.
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Flagg is back and Mavs crush Knicks
Rookie forward Cooper Flagg sprained his ankle in a 118-109 loss to Denver at home on Jan. 14, and missed two games. Fortunately for Dallas, they were facing Utah twice at home and won both games by a combined 40 points. On Jan. 19, the Mavericks were back on the road to face the Knicks on Monday and thumped the Knicks 114-97.
The Mavs came into the Knicks game at 4-14 on the road, but they took advantage of a New York team in a downward spiral. Flagg had a solid game with 18 points and seven rebounds, but it was Max Christie who dazzled with 26 points, while shooting 8-of-10 from three-point range. Dallas shot a sizzling 47% (15-of-32) from beyond the arc.
Dallas was playing without F Daniel Gafford (ankle), who is questionable for this game. Davis (finger) was expected to have surgery, but will now be re-evaluated in six weeks, according to ESPN. That could mean that he is a potential trade chip.
According to DunksandThrees.com, the Mavs are 22nd in Adjusted Net Rating, 28th in Adjusted Offense and 9th in Adjusted Defense. With Davis out, Flagg is the leading scorer with 18.8 points per game and is second to P.J. Washington (7.4rpg) with 6.3 rebounds.
Spread Pick and Prediction for Warriors vs. Mavs
Warriors vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds and Prediction
- Dallas +3.5 (5 units)
The Butler injury is more than just about losing his production. He's a leader on the floor and is one of their key defenders aside from Draymond Green. He's also unselfish and that's not always a trait in young players. Dallas is still playing without Davis, Dante Exum and Kyrie Irving, but they are used to playing without them. Jason Kidd's teams are going to defend no matter what. The other good news is that Dallas is getting forward P.J. Washington back from an ankle injury and personal reasons. He had missed both Utah games, which once again, shows the quality of depth of the Mavs. That's something that the Warriors are lacking. Take the home dog.
- Over 231.5 (4 units)
The Warriors lost Butler and the next night allowed 145 points to Toronto. The concern is on the defensive end, Kuminga can put up 20 points per game if given the minutes, but the defensive side is now a concern. It was before the injury, as they went over in three straight games before the Toronto loss. At home, Golden State allows teams to shoot 47.1% from the field (13th) and 36% from the three-point line. Dallas allows 116.6 points per game overall (18th) and has gone over in three of their last four games.
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