Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC We have a key Western Conference matchup in this Warriors vs. Suns prediction. Golden State (13-14) comes into this matchup off a 136-131 loss at Portland on Sunday as a 5-point road favorite. The Suns (14-12) are also on a two-game losing streak, losing on Dec. 14 to the Los Angeles Lakers 116-114 as a 1.5-point favorite. These teams met on Nov. 4, with the Warriors winning at home 118-107 as a 10.5-point favorite. Golden State is a 2.5-point road favorite and the total is 230.5. Check out more free NBA picks and other big college football and NFL predictions at Winners and Whiners.
Defensive struggles for the Warriors
Golden State allowed Minnesota to score 127 points at home last Friday and in their last game, gave up 136 to the Trail Blazers on the road. Both games were losses, including the loss to Portland, where Steph Curry scored the nets with 48 points on 16-of-26 shooting. But the Trail Blazers shot 51% from the field and three-point range (20-of-39). They also allowed a remarkable feat of two players scoring 35 points (Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe).
The Warriors have a few injuries, with Gary Payton II questionable with an illness and Pat Spencer out due to a personal issue. But this is still Curry's team as he leads the Warriors with 29.6 points per game and is shooting 41.2% from the field. Jimmy "Buckets" Butler adds 19.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, while shooting 51% from the field and 44.4% from long range. Defensively, the Warriors aren't bad overall, holding teams to just a 46.2% field goal percentage. They are also fourth in Adjusted Defensive Rating on DunksandThrees.com.
Suns get dominated on the boards by Lakers
Phoenix did a lot of things right in their two-point loss to the Lakers on Sunday. Devin Booker scored 27 points and dished out seven assists, but shot just 0-of-7 from 3-point range. They held the Lakers to just 7 of 37 (19%) from long range and All-Star guard Luka Doncic to just 7 of 25 shooting (2 of 14 3pt). But they were outrebounded by 17 as former Suns' big man Deandre Ayton led the way with 13 boards, and Jaxson Hayes added nine off the bench.
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Booker leads the Suns with 25.1 points and 6.7 assists, but is shooting just 30.2% from beyond the arc. Dillon Brooks was a huge addition and gives them toughness and an edge. He can also score, adding 21.6 points and 1.4 steals per game. They also have quality shooters in Connor Gilespie (13ppg, 42.5% 3pt) and Grayson Allen (16.3ppg, 39.2% 3pt). Allen is listed as questionable for this game with knee soreness. Phoenix ranks 17th in Adjusted Net Rating, 17th in Adjusted Offense, and 15th in Adjusted Defense on DunksandThrees.com.
Spread Pick for Warriors vs. Suns
Warriors vs. Suns pick and prediction
- Phoenix +2.5 (4 units)
The Suns are a pretty good team with an 8-5 record at home, while Golden State is 6-10 on the road. This ain't your championship contender Warriors. This is a team getting close to making some tough decisions on veterans, while holding out a talented young player like Jonathan Kuminga for the last three games, who is not injured. Golden State's defense has been putrid as of late and their road defense is worse, as they allow opponents to shoot 36% from three-point range away from home.
- Over 232.5 (5 units)
The Suns and Warriors are average or lower in pace. But of course, the Warriors have Curry, who can carry an offense. They've gone over in two straight and allowed an average of 131.5 points in their last two games. At home, Phoenix is shooting 38.4% from three-point range and is shooting 48.2% from the field.
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