Heat vs. Hawks Picks and Prediction for Friday December 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Friday, the Miami Heat will take on the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena, and we have you ready to go with our Heat vs. Hawks prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Atlanta is at 7:00 p.m. ET.
These teams met four times last season, and Miami won three games. They are 6-4 straight-up and against the spread in their last ten matchups with the Hawks. The over/under was split 5-5 in those games. If you want the Heat vs. Hawks prediction, read on to get our topย NBA predictionsย and increase your bankroll!
Heat have cooled off recently
Miami (15-15 SU, 14-16 ATS, and 15-15 O/U) lost 112-91 to Toronto in its last game (Tuesday). The Heat, who have dropped eight of their last ten games, shot 40 percent, including 8-for-30 from beyond the arc. They led for just one percent of the game, as they were held to 16 first-quarter points.
Miami ranks 13th in NET rating, including 20th in offensive efficiency rating and 6th in defensive efficiency rating, per Dunks and Threes. G Norman Powell leads the team in scoring this season, averaging 23.7 points with 3.9 rebounds per game. A few other players to watch against the Hawks are C Bam Adebayo (18.0 PPG and 9.5 RPG), F Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 4.7 APG), and F Andrew Wiggins (15.8 PPG and 4.7 RPG).
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The Heat went 37-45 last season, finishing tenth in the Eastern Conference. It was the team's first sub-.500 performance since 2018-19, but that didn't stop Miami from making the playoffs, as they won eight of their last 12 games to secure a spot in the Play-In Tournament. They took a step further, too, becoming the first ten-seed to advance with consecutive road wins over Chicago and Atlanta. Will they find a way to make a deeper run this season? Miami doesn't have an elite roster, but with Tyler Herro, Powell, Adebayo, and Wiggins, they have veteran experience, while Kel'el Ware, Jaquez Jr., and Davion Mitchell bring youthful upside.
Miami Heat Injury Report:
- F Nikola Jovic (elbow) and G Tyler Herro are out (toe).
Hawks are a weak defensive team
Atlanta (15-16 SU, 14-16-1 ATS, and 18-13 O/U) lost 126-123 to Chicago in its previous game. The Hawks, who have dropped four straight, shot 51 percent overall and dominated in the paint, but were outrebounded 48-38. Atlanta is paced by F Jalen Johnson, who averages 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.3 dimes per game. The Hawks score 118.8 points per game (11th) on 48.3 percent shooting (7th), and hold their opponents to 119.6 points per game (24th) on 47.9 percent shooting (23rd).
The Hawks were 40-42 last season, finishing 8th in the Eastern Conference. They were bounced from the playoffs in the Play-In Tournament, suffering consecutive losses to the seventh-seed Magic and tenth-seed Heat. It was their fourth-straight appearance in the tourney. Atlanta was busy this offseason revamping its roster. Kobe Bufkin (trade), Clint Capela (trade), and Caris LeVert (free agent) were among the seven departures, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker (sign-and-trade), Luke Kennard (free agent), and Kristaps Porziลฤฃis (trade) the most notable additions.
The group of newcomers joins a young, budding Hawks lineup featuring Most Improved Player Dyson Daniels and last season's Rookie of the Year runner-up Zaccharie Risacher. With Johnson and Young leading the way, there's clearly plenty of talent on this year's roster, but what will it take for the Hawks to escape the Play-In Tournament? The addition of former Timberwolves guard Alexander-Walker boosted the team's perimeter defense, leading to more transition buckets off turnovers. He and Daniels form a terrific backcourt tandem, as Daniels is an elite on-ball defender and Alexander-Walker is a pest on screens. The frontcourt is also formidable with Porziลฤฃis and Onyeka Okongwu patrolling the paint.
Atlanta Hawks Injury Report:
- G Dyson Daniels is questionable (hip).
Heat vs. Hawks Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Heat vs. Hawks
- Miami covers (4 Units)
The Heat will cover the spread on Friday night in Atlanta. Their defense will pester the home team on the perimeter, as they rank 2nd in opponent mid-range percentage and sixth in opponent three-point percentage. Atlanta ranks 7th in shooting percentage in both stats, but if Miami can take those shots away from them, the home team will be less effective, as the Hawks rank 26th in free-throw rate and offensive rebounding percentage.
Miami has enough offense to cover if it keeps Atlanta's scorers from getting in a rhythm. Bet on the visitors ATS!
Over/Under Pick for Heat vs. Hawks
- Over (5 Units)
Miami leads the NBA in pace of play this season. It also averages the shortest offensive possession length in the league. Atlanta also prefers a high-tempo attack, ranking 4th in pace and 3rd in average offensive possession length. The over has been especially profitable in Hawks games this season, and it's 3-1 when they had 2-3 days of rest. While Miami will play well enough defensively to cover the spread, I still see value in the game total to go over on Friday night in Atlanta.
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