Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Saturday, January 3, 2026
We have a Southwest Division matchup on Saturday featuring the Rockets vs. Mavericks prediction. These teams have met twice already, with Dallas covering both games and winning their last game at home, 122-109 on Dec. 6, getting 6.5 points. Houston (21-10) has won four straight games and last played on New Year's Day, beating Brooklyn 120-96. Dallas (12-23) has lost four straight games and six of their last seven. The Mavs host this game on Saturday at 8:30pmET in this Texas tussle. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite and the total is 225.5. Check out more free NBA and NFL picks at Winners and Whiners.
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KD is on a major roll
Kevin Durant is one of the greatest offensive players of the 21st century. There's no denying that, but people almost forget how great he was because he played in the era of LeBron James and Steph Curry. Now, he's playing on a very good Houston Rockets team with other very good players, including Alperen Sengun. Durant scored 22 points and dished out a season-high 11 assists in their 120-96 win over the Nets on Thursday. Durant has scored 22 or more points in nine straight games and is averaging 36 minutes per game at the age of 37.
That's impressive but Houston is fourth in the Western Conference because they have four players who average 15.8 points or more, led by Durant (25.4ppg) and Sengun (22.6). The Rockets average 120.5 points per game to rank fifth in the league and shoot 49.4% from the field (3rd). This is also happening with point guard Fred VanVleet missing the entire season with an ACL injury. Steven Adams (ankle) is the only other player on the injured list and he's questionable.
According to DunksandThrees.com, Houston is ranked second in Adjusted Net Rating, third in Adjusted Offense and sixth in Adjusted Defense.
Is it time to trade Anthony Davis?
The Mavs fell at home to Philadelphia 123-108 on Thursday as a 2.5-point dog. Anthony Davis scored just 13 points and grabbed eight boards in the loss. Rookie Cooper Flagg was held to 12 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Davis has been in and out of the lineup all season long due to injuries, which, unfortunately, has been a pattern for the last three seasons with the Lakers and Dallas and pretty much his career. He's played in just 17 of the Mavs' 35 games, averaging 20.1 points and 10.7 rebounds.
Flagg has had a strong rookie season, averaging 19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists, but is shooting just 27.6% from long range. That's something the 19-year-old still needs to work on, but he's the centerpiece of the franchise. The Mavs realize that, but they're 13th in the Western Conference, 2.5 games behind the 10th spot for a play-in game. If they trade Davis, it will be for some draft picks to add more youngsters to play with Flagg and Dereck Lively II, who is out for the year due to foot surgery.
According to DunksandThrees.com, the Mavs are 22nd in Adjusted Net Rating, 29th in Adjusted Offense and 10th in Adjusted Defense.
Spread Picks and Odds for Rockets vs. Mavs
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Rockets vs. Mavericks Picks and Prediction
- Houston -7.5 (5 units)
Houston is just the better team right now. Dallas just seems to be getting ready to rebuild and Davis is playing to get showcased. It's tough to be consistent when you're playing one night and resting the next game. Houston hasn't had that issue and when you look at Dallas in a gambling sense, one thing stands out. In their last seven games, they are 0-7 ATS. That's terrible and they've had just one win in that stretch and it came against Denver on Dec. 23. Take the road chalk in this matchup.
- Under 225.5 (4 units)
Despite their offensive issues, Dallas has been pretty good defensively. They rank first in the NBA defending the three-point shot (33.6%) and sixth in field goal percentage. That has to do with Flagg, Davis and Daniel Gafford, when he plays (he is in this game). Offensively, they rank 29th in three-point shooting, so they defend the three, but can't shoot it.
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