Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets, Picks and Prediction, Monday, December 15, 2025

Two major powers in the Western Conference meet on Monday in this Rockets vs. Nuggets prediction. Houston (16-6, 14-8 ATS) is having a strong first quarter of the season, while Denver (18-6) has won four straight, all on the road. These teams have met just once, with Denver winning 112-109 on the road as a 3-point dog on Nov. 21. Denver is a 1-5-point favorite and the total is 236.5. Check out more NBA Free Picks and bowl selections on Winners and Whiners.

Rockets edge Clippers on Thursday

Alperen Sengun led a balanced attack with 22 points, 15 rebounds, five assists and four steals as the Rockets edged the Clippers 115-113 last Thursday.  Amen Thompson added 20 points, nine rebounds and eight assists, while shooting 8-of-12 from the field. This wasn't a pretty effort as Houston turned the ball over 18 times and needed a furious comeback in the fourth quarter to win the game.

Houston, which has won three of their last four games, ranks second in Adjusted Net Rating on DunksandThrees.com, third in Adjusted Defense and Offense. They also sit in third place in the Western Conference, one game behind Denver and six behind OKC. Kevin Durant leads the Rockets with 24.8 points on 49.9% shooting (39.6% 3pt). Sengun adds 23 points, 9.4 rebounds and 7.0 assists, while shooting 49.9% from the field and 36.4% from long range. Houston also gets good news if Tari Eason (oblqiue) is cleared to play. He was averaging 11.5 points and 5.2 rebounds in 11 games.

Nuggets are rolling for a change

Denver is coming off a 136-105 pummeling of Sacramento on Dec 11. Nikola Jokic led the way with 36 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists. Peyton Watson added 21 points and shot 7-of-10 from the field.  They were a 10.5-point road favorite in that game and wound up going 4-0 in their four-game road trip. Somehow, Denver hasn't played at home in two weeks, where they lost four straight games and have now won 11 straight on the road.

With Aaron Gordon (hamstring) out likely until 2026 and Christian Braun (ankle) out another 2-3 weeks, Denver has been looking for help from within. They don't have anyone who can replace Gordon's production at power forward (18.8ppg), which means Jokic (29.5ppg, 12.3rpg, 10.9) needs to produce more on offense along with Jamal Murray (24.4ppg, 6.9apg).

Spread Pick and Prediction for Rockets vs. Nuggets

Rockets vs. Nuggets Pick and Prediction

• Houston +1.5 (4 units)

It's hard to believe that Denver, with the thin air at home, is just 6-4 at Ball Arena and 12-2 on the road. Houston is 8-4 on the road and if Eason plays, they get a huge lift. Unlike Denver, they have balanced scoring and you forget that Durant is even on the team with Sengun playing at an elite level. On the road, Houston ranks 7th in field goal defense and 11th in three-point defense. Houston also ranks third in the NBA in three-point shooting and their legs should be fresh haing not played since last Thursday.

• Under 237.5 (5 units)

Denver is 20th in pace of play due to Jokic's methodical, half-court offensive production. Despite having some great athletes, Houston is just 27th in pace of play and that has worked for them. They've gone under in seven of their last 10 games. Denver shoots about two percent less from the field at home and just 35% from beyond the arc, compared to 39.8% overall.