Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, October 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC The 2025-26 NBA season kicks off with a Western Conference battle of teams who made the postseason last season as the Houston Rockets clash with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night and we have things covered with our Rockets vs. Thunder prediction. Houston finished the 2024-25 season 52-30 and won the Southwest Division title. The Rockets fell in the opening round of the Western Conference in seven games to the Warriors. Oklahoma City rolled to a 68-14 mark in the regular season and went on to win their first time in the Sooner State and the franchise’s first since the 1978-79 Seattle SuperSonics as they beat Indiana in seven games. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Thunder owns a 124-119 advantage, though the Rockets picked up a 125-111 home win in the most recent matchup April 4. Read more about this Rockets vs. Thunder prediction! No air balls here—only slam dunks with our NBA Picks!
Houston Looking to Start 2025-26 on Positive Note
Houston won the Southwest Division title last season with a 52-30 mark, finishing four games ahead of Memphis in the standings. That marked the Rockets’ first division title since the 2019-20 season. Houston made some moves in the offseason, adding Dorian Finney-Smith (Lakers), Clint Capela (Hawks) and Isaiah Crawford (two-way deal, Kings) via free agency. The Rockets saw N’Faly Dante (Hawks) leave via free agency while making a big deal in the offseason. Houston dealt Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, the #10 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and five second-round picks to Phoenix in exchange for Kevin Durant.
The Rockets finished the 2024-25 season 13th in the league with 114.3 points per game on the year. Houston was 1st in rebounding by collecting 48.5 boards a night while they were 28th in assists with 23.3 dimes per contest. The Rockets were 6th in scoring defense as they give up an average of 109.8 points per game on the year. Alperen Sengun was second on the team in scoring with 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game last season. Fred VanVleet (14.1 points, 5.6 assists) and Jabari Smith Jr. (12.2 points, seven rebounds) were solid secondary scoring options last season. Amen Thompson (14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds), Cam Whitmore, Tari Eason (12 points, 6.4 rebounds), Steven Adams, Jae’Sean Tate, Reed Sheppard, Jock Landale and Aaron Holiday have to contribute for coach Ime Udoka for the team to have success. Houston was 21st in the league in field goal percentage as they shot 45.5% as a team from the floor. The Rockets were 22nd in threes per game as they knocked down 12.7 triples a night and stood 21st in three-point shooting by hitting 35.3% from beyond the arc. Houston was a below average team at the free throw line as they were 30th by converting 73.8% of their attempts on the season last year.
VanVleet (knee) is likely out for the season. Finney-Smith (ankle) is out indefinitely while Tate (ankle) and Eason (undisclosed) are both questionable. Watch for updates leading to tip-off.
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Thunder Trying to Start Defense of Title on Positive Note
Oklahoma City was a buzzsaw last season as they rolled to the league’s top record with a 68-14 record. The Thunder cruised to the Northwest Division crown, finishing 18 games ahead of the Nuggets. Oklahoma City swept Memphis in the opening round of the playoffs, outlasted the Nuggets in seven games in the second round and downed Minnesota in five games in the Western Conference Finals before beating Indiana in the NBA Finals. The Thunder will run back pretty much the same roster that won the title a season ago. Only Adam Flagler (San Antonio) and Alex Ducas (Brisbane Bullets of the Australian Basketball League) signed elsewhere in the offseason.
Last season, the Thunder were 4th in the league in scoring offense as they averaged 120.5 points per game on the year. Oklahoma City was 11th in rebounding with 44.9 boards per contest while they were 12th in assists with 26.9 dimes a night. The Thunder were 3rd in the league in scoring defense as they allow an average of 107.6 points a night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 32.7 points, five rebounds and 6.4 assists per contest en route to winning MVP. Jalen Williams was the most reliable secondary scoring option last season with 21.6 points per game. The Thunder look to Chet Holmgren (15 points, eight rebounds) and Aaron Wiggins (12 points) as other secondary scoring options. Luguentz Dort (10.1 points), Isaiah Hartenstein (11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists), Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Ousmane Dieng, Alex Caruso, Branden Carlson and Ajay Mitchell have to be contributors if they hope to have success. Oklahoma City was 7th in the league in field goal percentage as they shot 48.2% from the floor as a team on the year last season. The Thunder were 6th by hitting 14.5 threes per game and 6th in three-point shooting by hitting 37.4% of their attempts from beyond the arc in 2024-25. They were stellar at the free throw line on the year as they ranked 1st by shooting 81.9% as a team at the stripe last season.
Nikola Topic (groin) is out indefinitely. Carlson (calf), Caruso (ankle), Holmgren (shoulder), Joe (knee) and Mitchell (leg) are each questionable.
Rockets vs. Thunder Pick
Rockets vs. Thunder Spread Pick
- Thunder -7
Oklahoma City shredded the opposition last season en route to hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of the season. The Thunder managed to retain all the critical pieces from last year’s rotation and Sam Presti inked his stars to deals that keeps their nucleus together for the next several years. Houston took a big swing in picking up Durant but one has to see how the 37-year-old fares as the team’s #1 option. Losing VanVleet is a blow for the Rockets and leaves them thin at the point guard position. It puts pressure on Sheppard and Holiday to step up. With frontcourt pieces missing or banged up, the Rockets don’t have the horses to keep up here. Gilgeous-Alexander slices and dices through the Rockets to deliver a win for the hosts.
Rockets vs. OKC Thunder Over/Under Pick
- Over 227.5 (-110)
Including the postseason, Houston saw the over post a 47-40-2 mark in the 2024-25 campaign. The Rockets were 13th in offensive efficiency last season while ranking 18th in terms of pace with an average of 98.6 possessions per game. Oklahoma City saw the over post a 55-49-2 mark In the 2024-25 campaign. The Thunder was a stellar third in offensive efficiency and was one of the teams that loved to push the pace as they were sixth in the league in tempo with 100 possessions a night. Five of the last six meetings between the teams have gone over the number, with each of those surpassing this number. The Thunder pushes the pace and that helps this game wind up over the total.
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