Indiana Pacers vs. Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions, Monday, December 29th, 2025
The Indiana Pacers (6-26) and the Houston Rockets (19-10) battle before the New Year for an East vs. West matchup in this Pacers vs. Rockets prediction. This is their first of two matchups this season. Indiana just lost on the road in Miami on Saturday, going down 142-116 as just 6.5-point dogs. Houston also played on Saturday, winning at home over Cleveland 117-100 as just 2.5-point favorites. Tipoff is set for 8:00 EST. Keep reading to see our Pacers vs. Rockets prediction, and check out all of our winning NBA Picks!
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Indiana Drops Eight Straight
The Indiana Pacers are the reigning Eastern Conference Champions, but their 2025-26 season has not gone according to plan. They knew there would be a set back without Tyrese Haliburton, as their Gold Medalist point guard tore his Achilles tendon in last year's Finals, and is out for the entirety of the season. Injuries have bothered the Pacers all season, as many of their rotational players have been out of the lineup. In their last game, the Pacers got rolled by Miami despite getting 33 points and seven rebounds from Pascal Siakam.
Siakam has been one of the few Pacers who has stayed healthy throughout the season. He is averaging 23.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 3.8 APG in his third season with Indiana after coming over from Toronto. Siakam can score in the post, and also shoot from the outside as he is averaging 1.8 made threes on the year. Bennedict Mathurin is back in the lineup after missing some games with an injury, he is second on the team in scoring with 18.5 PPG while grabbing 5.7 RPG as a 23-year old shooting guard. Andrew Nembhard runs the point with Haliburton out, Nembhard is getting 17.3 PPG and 6.9 APG on the year.
Their recent starting lineups have included the 7'1 center Jay Huff (8.1 PPG) and 21-year old Johnny Furphy (4.5 PPG). The Pacers are ranked 29th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency according to dunksandthrees.com. Indiana plays at an average pace, ranking 15th in the league in possessions per game.
Rockets Stick with Big Lineup
The Houston Rockets have been without Fred Van Vleet all season, but instead of trying to force in another point guard, they have been playing one of the tallest lineups in NBA history. There are pros and cons to this strategy, as rebounding becomes easier, but defending quick guards on the perimeter becomes a problem. Houston comes into this game off back to back wins, having won in LA against the Lakers, then at home against the Cavaliers. In their win over Cleveland, Kevin Durant led the way with 30 points in the win.
Durant continues to be productive as a 37 year old forward, he leads the team with 25.4 PPG, and is converting 2.1 made threes per game. Durant has been lining up at the shooting guard spot, and has not needed to rebound as much which is why he is down to just 5.0 RPG. Alperen Sengun is their young star center, he is getting 22.7 PPG but is listed as a game-time decision as he has been battling a calf injury and sat out against Cleveland. Amen Thompson has been forced into the point guard role, the 6'8 22-year old is having a productive season with his 17.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 5.5 APG.
Jabari Smith Jr. is still just 22-years old despite this being his 4th season in the league, he is getting 15.6 PPG and 6.8 RPG. Reed Sheppard has come alive as a scorer off the bench averaging 13.4 PPG. Houston is ranked 4th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. The Rockets play slower than the Pacers, ranking only 26th in the league in pace of play.
Injury Report for Pacers vs. Rockets:
Pacers:
- Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard, Isaiah Jackson
- Questionable: TJ McConnell
Rockets:
- Out: Fred Van Vleet
- Questionable: Alperen Sengun
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Pacers vs. Rockets Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Pacers vs. Rockets
- Rockets to cover (5 units)
The fall of the Indiana Pacers has been close to unprecedented. Not only did they lose Haliburton, but many of their other rotational players have been out of the lineup for long stretches. This has brought the reigning Eastern Conference Champions down to just 6-26 on the season, and they will be left without answers defensively here. Indiana started Jay Huff and Johnny Furphy last game, Indiana cannot hide these weak defenders against the size and skill of the Houston Rockets, especially Durant who will find mismatches all game. Siakam can try to slow him down, but Durant has scored 22 or more in each of his last seven games, and will keep it going here. The Pacers are 1-14 on the road, this is not the game where they make a stand.
Take the Rockets to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Pacers vs. Rockets
- Under (4 units)
Houston will be in control of this game, and play at the pace they want to play, which is slow. Houston is 26th in the league in possessions per game, they changed their style of play this season as they lack a true point guard. Without Van Vleet in the lineup, the Rockets rarely push the ball in transition, as Durant, Thompson or Sengun are usually taking their time walking the ball up the floor. The Rockets went under in each of their last two games. Indiana is just 15th in the league in pace of play, and will be willing to play slowly here to try to keep this game close late. Expect a low scoring game in Houston.
Take the under.
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