Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat Picks and Prediction for Saturday, December 27th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Indiana Pacers (6-25, 15-16 ATS, 11-20 O/U) meet the Miami Heat (16-15, 16-15 ATS, 15-16 O/U) in an Eastern Conference bout on Saturday evening, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Pacers were hit with a home loss by the Celtics on Friday. The Heat posted a road win against the Hawks. These squads have yet to meet this season, and each won two games in last year’s season series.
Can the Pacers end their losing streak with a road win on Saturday evening? Check out the Pacers vs. Heat prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NBA Picks!
Pacers Begin Road Trek on Saturday
The Indiana Pacers begin a quick two-game road trek on Saturday. Indiana is having a disastrous season. They were not expected to be a contender, but no one expected them to be at the bottom of the entire NBA. The Pacers stand at 2-8 in their past ten games. The biggest weakness has been the scoring. The Pacers were hit with a loss by the Celtics last Monday and lost by 17 points to the Bucks on Tuesday. The Pacers had more scoring woes in a 140-122 road defeat to the Celtics on Friday. They were five-point dogs in that one. Indiana shot 50% in the defeat. The Pacers have covered in two of their past five games.
Pascal Siakam has been steady, netting 20 or more points in all but one game this month. He scored 11 points on Tuesday and has delivered an average of 23.5 PPG. Siakam averaged a stellar 22 points in three meetings against the Heat last season. Benedict Mathurin has been slumping, shooting below 35% in five of his past six games. The 23-year-old guard has posted an average of 18.5 PPG and 5.6 RPG on the season.
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Andrew Nembhard has reached 20 points in two of his last five games. The 25-year-old guard has posted an average of 17.5 PPG. Jarace Walker scored 12 points in the defeat on Friday. The 22-year-old forward has issued 9 PPG. The Pacers have key injuries as Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith remain out of action.
The Pacers are 0-5 in their last five road games, including a defeat against the Knicks. They covered in two games in that span. Indiana has scored 113 or fewer points in five of their past six games and is averaging 109.2 points on the season, ranking them 30th. The Pacers are conceding an average of 117.7 points, pegging them 21st in the NBA.
Heat Post Road Win vs. Hawks
The Miami Heat are home for two straight games beginning in this one. Miami is having an inconsistent season. They stand in second place in the division, just one game out of the top spot. The Heat are 2-3 in their past five games due to poor defense. They gave up 132 points in a loss against the Knicks last week and were handed a 112-91 loss by the Raptors earlier this week. Next, the Heat answered with a big 126-111 road win against the Hawks in a meeting that had the Heat marked as 2.5-point dogs. Miami sank 47% of its shots. The Hawks covered the spread in one of their past five games.
Norman Powell is having the most productive season of his career. The 32-year-old point guard has sunk at least 20 points in all but two games this month. Powell is sporting an average of 23.7 PPG. He scored 22 points in his only meeting against the Pacers last year. Bam Adebayo has been shaky for his standards, shooting below 39% in three of his last five games. The veteran center has recorded 18.2 PPG and 9.5 RPG on the season. He has a back injury and did not play on Friday. He is questionable.
Andrew Wiggins has scored 10 or fewer points in three of his past five games. The 30-year-old forward has registered an average of 15.8 PPG on the season. Jamie Jaquez Jr. has been a threat, sinking 19 or more points in three of his past five games. The 23-year-old has contributed with 15.9 PPG and 5.5 RPG on the year. Tyler Herro has a toe injury. The star is averaging 23 PPG. He is questionable to play in this one.
The Heat are only 1-4 in their last five home dates, including a defeat against the Kings. They covered the spread just once in that span. Miami is scoring an average of 119.2 points on the season, marking them ninth in the NBA. The Heat have conceded 112 or fewer points in three of their past five games and are squandering an average of 117.6 points, placing them 20th in the NBA.
Pacers vs. Heat Pick
Spread Pick for Pacers vs. Heat
- Indiana Pacers +9 (5 units)
The Indiana Pacers are not winning games, but that does not mean they can’t keep this one within reach. Miami has been a disaster this month. They have dropped nine of their past 12 games. They were in Atlanta last night. The Heat have dropped three straight home games.
Furthermore, Miami is in a rut in the offensive end, scoring an average of just 112.8 points in its past five games. This is good news for the Pacers, who have been playing stronger defense in the past week. They kept Boston to 103 points last weekend and Milwaukee to 110 points on Tuesday. They rank 2nd in the NBA in three-point defense. The Pacers have injuries, but so do the Heat. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro did not play on Friday, and their status for this one is in doubt. Adebayo leads the team in rebounds.
Over/Under Pick for Pacers vs. Heat
- Over 231.5 (5 units)
I expect this one to go over, considering this lower number. This is a lower total due to Indiana's scoring issues, but the Heat defense has been shaky. They have squandered an average of 121 points in their past four games. Indiana scored 122 points against Boston on Friday.
In addition, Miami plays at a quick pace. They rank #1 in possessions per game and are capable of big numbers. They scored 126 points against the Hawks on Friday. The Pacers have surrendered 129 or more points in two of their past three road games.
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