Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday March 17 2026
Use Code WWWC Madison Square Garden is going to be rocking on St. Patrick's Day as the Indiana Pacers limp into New York riding a 13-game losing streak — and if you want to know where the sharpest NBA picks are pointing tonight, the green beer crowd at MSG and a shorthanded Indiana roster tell you just about everything you need to know. The Knicks are locked in, healthy enough, and playing at home with nothing on the horizon to distract them — making this one of the cleanest fade spots of the entire season.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: New York Knicks -16.5
- Total Pick: Over 224.5
- Projected Final Score: New York 125, Indiana 104
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | +17.5 (-108) | Over 225.5 (-108) |
| New York Knicks | -17.5 (-112) | Under 225.5 (-112) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | +16.5 (-114) | Over 224.5 (-110) |
| New York Knicks | -16.5 (-106) | Under 224.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Indiana | New York | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/17 | 06:50:51 AM | +16.5 -114 | -16.5 -106 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/17 | 06:50:44 AM | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/16 | 07:50:23 PM | +16.5 -108 | -16.5 -112 | |
| 03/16 | 07:46:33 PM | +17 -110 | -17 -110 | |
| 03/16 | 07:44:06 PM | +17.5 -110 | -17.5 -110 | |
| 03/16 | 07:43:59 PM | +17 -110 | -17 -110 | |
| 03/16 | 07:36:02 PM | +17.5 -108 | -17.5 -112 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/17 | 10:47:37 PM | 224.5 -110 | 224.5 -110 | |
| 03/16 | 07:36:02 PM | 225.5 -108 | 225.5 -112 |
Pacers vs Knicks Key Matchups and Handicap
Indiana has been one of the most cooperative opponents on New York's schedule this season when it comes to the spread — covering the number in all three prior meetings, including a remarkable overtime near-upset as a double-digit underdog on February 10. The Pacers have consistently competed against the Knicks, and that history deserves respect. But the version of Indiana that made those games interesting looks nothing like the roster walking into Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.
The Pacers have gone 0-13 straight-up since the All-Star break, with the lone ATS cover coming against New York in last Friday's 101-92 road loss. That game at least showed Indiana can still hang within a large spread against the Knicks, but the roster situation has deteriorated considerably. Pascal Siakam has missed four consecutive games, and the injury report reads like a hospital census: Micah Potter, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard, Quenton Jackson, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Ivica Zubac, and Aaron Nesmith are all listed as questionable. When nearly every rotation player is in doubt, the idea of covering a 16.5-point spread against a rested, locked-in opponent at home becomes an enormous ask.
Indiana is also on the front leg of a back-to-back, with a trip home to host the Blazers on Wednesday. That scheduling context adds another layer of concern for bettors thinking about backing the Pacers — coaches in that situation tend to manage minutes and risk, not push starters deep into the game chasing a cover at MSG.
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New York is coming off a momentum-building win over Golden State, erasing a 21-point deficit to close out their third consecutive victory. The Knicks do not play again until Friday and their next two opponents after tonight are the Nets and Wizards. There is no look-ahead spot, no tricky opponent looming, and no reason to hold anything back. This is exactly the kind of game New York circles on the calendar to build confidence and roll their depth, especially with the emotional weight of recent playoff losses to Indiana still fresh in the locker room.
The Jalen Brunson questionable tag is the one variable worth monitoring. Brunson has not missed a game this season, and with an easy schedule on the horizon, the Knicks may choose to rest him and give the ailments extra time to heal. If Brunson sits, New York's offensive ceiling drops — but they are still favored by double digits against an undermanned Indiana team, and the remaining supporting cast is more than capable of covering a spread that has already moved a full point in Indiana's favor since opening.
The total has dropped a full point from 225.5 to 224.5, settling into what projects as a fair number for a game with pace but some defensive intent from New York. The over is 9-3 in Indiana's last 12 games, which reflects how many possessions the Pacers tend to generate even when losing decisively. A blowout in the making often goes over as the trailing team pushes pace in the fourth quarter, and Indiana's track record supports that pattern.
Betting Trends — IND vs NY
- Indiana has covered the spread in all three meetings with New York this season.
- The Pacers covered as a double-digit underdog in the most recent home meeting on February 10, including overtime.
- New York earned a 101-92 road win last Friday, with Indiana covering the large spread.
- Indiana is 0-13 straight-up and 1-12 against the spread since the All-Star break.
- The Pacers' only ATS cover in that stretch came against the Knicks.
- The over is 9-3 in Indiana's last 12 games.
- The Knicks have won three straight games, including a comeback win over Golden State on Sunday.
- New York does not play again until Friday and faces the Nets and Wizards in their next two outings.
- Indiana is on the front leg of a back-to-back, hosting Portland on Wednesday.
- The spread has moved from New York -17.5 at open to -16.5 as of Tuesday morning.
- 100 percent of tracked spread money and tickets have been placed on New York.
- The total has dropped from 225.5 at open to 224.5.
Key Injuries and Notes — IND vs NY
- Pascal Siakam (IND) — Out. Siakam has missed Indiana's last four games and is not expected to play tonight. His absence is the most significant roster blow for the Pacers.
- Micah Potter (IND) — Questionable.
- Obi Toppin (IND) — Questionable.
- Ben Sheppard (IND) — Questionable.
- Quenton Jackson (IND) — Questionable.
- T.J. McConnell (IND) — Questionable.
- Andrew Nembhard (IND) — Questionable.
- Ivica Zubac (IND) — Questionable.
- Aaron Nesmith (IND) — Questionable.
- Jalen Brunson (NY) — Questionable. Brunson is dealing with a couple of ailments and has not missed a game this season. The Knicks may choose to rest him given the favorable schedule ahead. His absence would reduce New York's offensive ceiling but does not meaningfully change the outlook against this Indiana roster.
Pacers vs Knicks ATS and Total Picks
Indiana has made the Knicks work for it all season, but that version of the Pacers had a functioning rotation. Tonight's Indiana team is missing its best player, carrying a nine-player questionable list, playing the front leg of a back-to-back, and walking into one of the loudest buildings in the league on St. Patrick's Day. The case for backing the Pacers to cover 16.5 points in this environment is nearly impossible to construct.
New York has every reason to come out with energy and intent. The Knicks are healthy, rested, and motivated to bury an opponent that has given them problems in recent memory. With or without Brunson, they have the depth to roll here and the schedule sets up perfectly for a statement win. Take New York to cover.
On the total, Indiana's pace tends to push games over even in losses, and the over is 9-3 in the Pacers' last 12 outings. The number has dropped to 224.5, which is a fair price on a game that could turn into a track meet if the Knicks build an early lead and Indiana pushes pace trying to climb back into it.
- Spread Pick: New York Knicks -16.5
- Total Pick: Over 224.5
Final Score Prediction
New York builds a comfortable lead early and never looks back in front of a green beer-fueled MSG crowd. Indiana's depleted rotation cannot keep up for four quarters against a rested, motivated Knicks squad with nothing but time on their hands before Friday's next game. The Pacers push pace late and the total climbs over 224 in the process.
Projected Final Score: New York 125, Indiana 104
How to Bet
Tuesday night's Pacers-Knicks game at Madison Square Garden is available across every major sportsbook, and with the spread already moving a full point toward Indiana, locking in New York -16.5 sooner rather than later is the smart play. If you are new to NBA betting or want to ride along with the crowd at MSG without risking real money, social sportsbooks let you play the full slate of games with virtual currency while following every run and momentum shift in real time.
For bettors ready to put real money behind New York or the over, the bet365 bonus code is one of the strongest welcome offers available and gives new users a meaningful edge on a game with this much directional clarity in the spread market.
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