Kings vs. Heat, Picks, Odds, Preview and Prediction, Saturday, December 6, 2025
Use Code WWWC Miami looks for revenge against Sacramento in this Kings vs. Heat prediction. Last season, the Kings too both games and covered both by a combined six points. Sacramento (5-17, 7-14-1 ATS) is struggling, having lost four straight, after winning two straight. Miami (14-9, 14-9 ATS) has lost two of three games after winning six straight games. Miami plays on Friday night so this is the second of a back-to-back, and Tyler Herro (toe) is dealing with a different injury and could miss some time. Miami is an 8-point favorite and the total is 239. Check out more NBA free picks and other football, hoops, and NHL games this weekend at Winner and Whiners.
Kings need Sabonis
Sacramento was embarrassed on Wednesday, falling at Houston 121-95 as a 15.5-point underdog. Domantas Sabonis sat out another game due to a partially torn meniscus in his left knee. The good news is that French center Maxime Raynaud (7-1, 250) looks like a keeper after scoring 25 points in the loss to the Rockets. He's averaging 7.5 points and 3.7 rebounds, while shooting 51.2% in 15.8 minutes per game. Malik Monk also had 25 points of the bench, but the starters had just 33 points combined as Zach LaVine was held to just two points on 1-of-5 shooting.
You have to wonder how in the world this team was put together with 30+ players in Russell Westbrook, Denis Schroder, and DeMar DeRozan in the rotation, along with LaVine, who is now 30 and not known for his defensive ability. LaVine averages 19.8 points per game on 48.6% shooting (37% 3pt) and is a potential trade prospect. DeRozan adds 18.1 points and 3.4 assists, on 49.7% shooting and could also be dealt along with Sabonis (17.2ppg, 12.3rpg), who is expected to miss 2-3 more weeks.
The Kings are ranked 24th in the Net Ranking from DunksandThrees.com, 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Defense.
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Key injuries for Kings:
- G Dennis Schroder (hip) is questionable.
- C D. Sabonis (knee) is out 2-3 weeks.
Heat missing Herro again
Norman Powell scored 28 points on Friday in Miami's 106-105 loss at Orlando on Friday night. But Tyler Herro missed the game. Just when Herro finally made his season debut after missing the first 17 games coming off ankle surgery in the off-season. He has played in five games, averaging 23.8 points and shot extremely well (48.4% 3pt). He scored 20 points in Miami's 118-108 loss at Dallas on Wednesday and is now dealing with a toe issue that cost him Friday's game. With Herro out again, the Heat need some help from shooting guard Powell, who has dealt with an ankle injury. He missed the Dallas game after scoring 30 points against the Clippers (140-123 win), but may miss one of these games in the back-to-back scenario.
The Heat are led by Powell, a great acquisition in the off-season from the anemic Clippers, who is averaging 25 points and shooting 45.8% from the field. Center Bam Adebayo adds 19.5 points and 8.8 rebounds. Andrew Wiggins contributes 17.2 points and 5.1 rebounds on 47.7% shooting. C Kel'el Ware (7-0, 230) allows Adebayo to play more power forward. He just had 22 points and 10 boards in the Dallas loss.
Miami ranks 12th on DunksandThrees.com, 16th on Adjusted Offense and 5th in Adjusted Defense.
Key injuries for Heat:
G T. Herro (toe) is doubtful. Second-leading scorer
Betting Trends for Kings vs. Heat
Kings:
- 1-4 ATS last 5 games.
- 8-2 Under last 10 games.
- 11-5 ATS last 16 games against Miami.
Heat:
- 6-3 Over last 9 vs. Kings.
Spread Pick for Kings vs. Heat
Kings vs. Heat Pick and Prediction
- Sacramento +8 (4 units)
- Miami 128-123
Miami just played on Friday night and Herro is probably out in this game. Then you have to wonder if Powell will play in the second of a back-to-back game due to his sprained ankle. That's a lot of production if they both don't play. The Kings have not played since Wednesday, so they have plenty of rest, which is good for their older guys like DeRozan, Westbrook and LaVine, coming off a terrible performance. Expect them to compete and cover against a tired foe. Miami has covered just once in their last four games at home.
Total Pick for Kings vs. Heat
- Over 239 (5 units)
Miami is the number one team in the league in pace of play, while Sacramento is ninth. Sacramento is also 25th in the league in Adjusted Defense. At home, Miami is averaging 124.1 points per game (3rd) and the Kings are allowing 123.8 points per game on the road.
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