LA Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Saturday, January 24, 2026
Use Code WWWC A Western Conference matchup for Saturday night in this Lakers vs. Mavs prediction. The Lakers are 26-17 and reside in sixth place in the West, just a 1/2 game out of fourth place. Dallas is 19-26 and 1.5 games behind the LA Clippers for 10th place in the West. These met one time this season on Nov. 28, with the Lakers winning 129-119 as a 9.5-point favorite. Check out more NBA Free Picks and College Basketball Predictions this weekend at Winners and Whiners.
Lakers need Reaves back
The Lakers had won two straight games before facing the rival LA Clippers on Thursday. They fell 112-104 as a 2.5-point dog on the road. Luka Doncic scored 32 points, grabbed 11 boards and dished out eight assists, but shot just 11 of 27 from the field. LeBron James chipped in with 23 points and six assists in 35 minutes. The Clippers outrebounded the Lakers by 15 and that's where the main problem began.
The other issue was not having guard Austin Reaves due to a calf injury. Reaves was averaging career highs in points per game at 26.6 points per game and in assists with 6.6. The other issue is whether the Lakers wait for Reaves to return shortly or deal a player like Deandre Ayton (13.7ppg) or even James.
According to DunksandThrees.com, the Lakers rank 17th overall, 7th in Adjusted Offense and 23rd in Adjusted Defense.
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Mavs playing well without AD
We're almost exactly a year away from GM Nico Harrison trading away Luka Doncic to the Lakers for Anthony Davis in a three-team trade. Davis has barely been available this season, playing just 20 games due to various injuries, while the best pickup might have been Max Christie, who averages 13 points and is shooting 45.7% from three-point range.
Rookie Copper Flagg (18.8ppg, 6.4rpg) has played about as well as you can expect aside from his three-point shooting. Davis has been out with a finger issue but reportedly is not getting surgery, so it's possible they can deal him before the trade deadline on Feb. 5. Naji Marshall (14.5ppg, 54.8% FG) has also picked up some of the scoring duties. He helped the team get by Golden State 123-115 on Jan. 22 with 30 points on 10-of-12 shooting. The Mavs come into this matchup having won four straight and five of six.
On DunksandThrees.com, Dallas is ranked 22nd overall, 28th in Adjusted Offense and 6th in Adjusted Defense.
Spread Pick for Lakers vs. Mavs
Lakers vs. Mavericks prediction and pick
- Mavs +4.5 (5 units)
Dallas is supposed to get center Daniel Gafford back and while he's not Davis, he can give the Mavs some much-needed rim protection. The Mavs have won four straight and five of six, so they are playing better basketball, probably the best of the season, despite all the injuries. Flagg, Marshall, Christie, Brandon Williams and Klay Thompson are playing well. They seem to be developing chemistry, while the Lakers land, you only hear about potential trades and a team that has lost three of five games. Doncic probably won't be as bitter, playing against his old team with Harrison gone as GM. The problem with getting Doncic is that he's not going to be good defensively, as the Lakers rank 27th in field goal defense and 25th against the three-point shot.
Totals Pick for Lakers vs. Mavs
- Under 234.5 (4 units)
The Lakers want to slow the pace down as Doncic is methodical and James is 41. The Mavs have some young athletes but they can slow it down some. The Lakers have gone under in three straight games and four of the last five vs. Dallas. At home, Dallas ranks first in the NBA in three-point defense (32.7%). The return of Gafford should help their interior defense.
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