Mavericks vs. Pelicans Preview, Picks, and Prediction, Monday, December 22, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Monday, the Dallas Mavericks will visit the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center, and we have you ready to go with our Mavericks vs. Pelicans prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from NOLA is at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Mavs are one-point spread favorites, and the game total is 238 points.
This is the third matchup of the season between these NBA Western Conference squads. The teams split the previous matchups, but NOLA covered the spread in both games. Dallas is 6-4 straight-up and 4-5-1 against the spread in its last ten games against New Orleans. The over was 5-4-1. If you want the Mavericks vs. Pelicans prediction, read on to get our topย NBA predictionsย and increase your bankroll!
Mavericks are trending up with Flagg leading the charge
Dallas (11-18 SU, 14-15 ATS, and 13-16 O/U) lost 121-114 to Philadelphia on Saturday. It was a tale of two quarters in the second half, as the Mavs outscored the Sixers 35-23 in the third, but Philly pulled away to win with a 30-17 advantage in the fourth. Dallas shot 54 percent from the floor, but was just 3-for-18 from beyond the arc. They also committed 18 turnovers that led to 23 points for the 76ers.
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Forward Anthony Davis paces the Mavericks with 19.9 points per game on 50.9 percent shooting. He also averages 11.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists. The Mavs score 113.0 points (25th) on 46.3 percent shooting (20th), including 33.3 percent from three-point distance (29th). Dallas' opponents average 116.9 points per game (18th) on 45.9 percent shooting (5th), including 32.8 percent from beyond the arc (1st).
The Mavericks went 38-43 last season, finishing 10th in the Western Conference standings. They lost to Memphis in the Play-In Tournament. On the heels of an NBA Finals appearance, Dallas mixed things up, trading star guard Luka Donฤiฤ to the Lakers for Davis, SG Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round draft pick. The shocking move sent shockwaves through the league, but after landing Duke sensation Cooper Flagg with the number one pick, it has helped solidify the Mavs' core. While Kyrie Irving recovers from last seasonโs torn ACL, DโAngelo Russell will play the point, distributing the basketball to a deep Dallas frontcourt rotation of Davis, Flagg, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and Dwight Powell.
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report:
- No new injuries to report.
Pelicans are 9-1 ATS in their last ten
New Orleans (7-22 SU, 17-10-2 ATS, and 17-12 O/U) beat Indiana 128-109 on Saturday. The Pelicans, who have won four straight games, led for 98 percent of the game, as they jumped out to a 44-27 first-quarter lead. They shot 53 percent overall, scoring 70 points in the paint. They also knocked down 29 of their 34 free-throw attempts. The Pacers scored 60 in the paint, but were inefficient from beyond the arc (8-for-42).
The Pels were 21-61 last season, finishing 14th in the West and missing the NBA Playoffs. Injuries limited them, as Zion Williamson (52 games), Dejounte Murray (51), Trey Murphy III (29), and CJ McCollum (26) all missed extended time. New Orleans ranked in the bottom five of the league in both offensive and defensive rating. In the midst of a forgettable season, the front office traded Brandon Ingram and sent McCollum to Washington for Jordan Poole over the summer.
New Orleans has a mix of veterans and young talent on its roster. Three-time champion Kevon Looney was signed in free agency to bring stability to the frontcourt rotation, and forward Saddiq Bey was acquired via trade. The Pelicans also made a couple of nice moves on draft night, selecting Oklahoma guard Jeremiah Fears and Maryland forward Derik Queen with the 7th and 13th picks. Fears is a slashing combo guard with upside (13.8 PPG and 3.2 APG), and he has been thrown into the fire with Dejounte Murray rehabbing from a torn Achilles suffered in January. All that said, Zion Williamson is still the centerpiece of New Orleans' team. He's still only 25 and has proven to be an elite rebounder and post scorer when healthy. With fellow 25-year-old forward Trey Murphy III (21.2 PPG last season) at his side, the Pelicans have a frontcourt worth building around.
New Orleans Pelicans Injury Report:
- SF Herbert Jones (head) is day-to-day.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Mavericks vs. Pelicans
- Mavs -1 (5 Units)
NOLA has been playing much better, but Dallas' top ten defense will put an end to their scoring surge. The Mavericks are one of the NBA's toughest defensive squads, ranking 3rd in opponent eFG%, 7th in opponent rim%, 7th in opponent mid-range%, and 1st in opponent 3PT%. They're also top five in opponent assist% and opponent FT%. New Orleans focuses too much on the rim (the highest rim FG attempt rate in the NBA), but they'll find plenty of resistance in the paint from the visitors. The Pelicans have plenty of buzz right now, but Dallas can change that narrative on Monday.
Over/Under Pick for Mavericks vs. Pelicans
- Under 238 (4 Units)
New Orleans is a talented offensive squad, but it hasn't recently faced a team of Dallas' defensive standard. I feel confident that the visitors will focus their efforts on that end of the court, as they're unlikely to win a shootout on the road against a hot Pels team. The Mavs rank 28th in offensive efficiency rating, and they're ranked in the bottom ten in eFG%, Rim%, and 3PT%. They're also in the bottom five in offensive rebounding percentage and 25th in free-throw percentage this season.
These teams combined for 233 points on November 21 and 200 points on November 5. The under has cashed in their last three matchups, and I expect a similar outcome in tomorrow's game.
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