Mavericks vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction for Friday, December 5, 2025

Dallas Mavericks (8-15) vs. OKC Thunder (21-1) 

The NBA betting action goes on Friday with a huge 12-game card, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Western Conference showdown from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK, to get you the Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction.

Dallas takes on the reigning NBA champions for the second time this season. Back in October, the Thunder outlasted the Mavericks 101-94 as 8.5-point road favorites, and the game flew under the 226.5-point line.

Read more about this Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction, and check out all our NBA picks for Friday night. The tip-off at Paycom Center is set at 9:30 PM ET.

The Mavericks shoot for their fourth straight W   

The Dallas Mavericks (8-15; 11-12 ATS; 8-15 O/U) haven’t won consecutive games until the first day of December, and now, they are riding a three-game winning streak. During that stretch, the Mavericks have beaten the LA Clippers 114-110, the Denver Nuggets 131-121, and the Miami Heat 118-108.

Rookie Cooper Flagg tortured the Clippers for 35 points, while Anthony Davis dropped 32 points on the Nuggets. Last Wednesday, Flagg had 22 points and six rebounds against the Heat, and Davis added 17 points and 17 boards.

Ryan Nembhard has done a great job over the last two games. Rookie point guard went off for 28 points and 10 assists in that huge road win over the Nuggets. Against Miami, Nembhard posted a double-double of 15 points and 13 assists.

The Mavericks are still dead last in the league in adjusted offensive efficiency (107.9 points per 100 possessions). But their defensive rating is fifth-best in the NBA (112.1 points allowed per 100 possessions), and the Mavs are second in opposing 3-point percentage (32.6%).

The Thunder are chasing history                  

The Oklahoma City Thunder (21-1; 11-11 ATS; 12-10 O/U) extended their winning streak to 13 games last Tuesday, beating the Golden State Warriors 124-112 as 11-point road favorites. The Thunder improved to 21-1 on the season, becoming the third team in NBA history to record such a start.

OKC blew a 22-point lead last Tuesday, allowing a whopping 44 third-quarter points to the Steph Curry-less Warriors. Down the stretch, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took over, finishing with 38 points, while Jalen Williams had 22 points and six assists.

Isaiah Hartenstein missed his third straight game with a calf injury, and he’ll remain on the sidelines for a few more games. Luguentz Dort (adductor) and Alex Caruso (quad) both missed the Warriors game and are questionable for Friday’s clash against Dallas.

The Thunder boast a ridiculous plus-15.0 net rating. They score 120.2 points per 100 possessions (5th in the NBA) while surrendering just 105.2 points in return (1st). OKC’s defense leads the NBA in 2-point percentage (47.0%) and ranks 20th in 3-point percentage (36.8%).

Mavericks vs. Thunder Pick 

Spread Pick for Mavericks vs. Thunder            

• Oklahoma City Thunder -15 (4 units) 

I’m backing the Thunder to put an end to the Mavericks’ winning streak and cover the spread along the way. Dallas is a solid defensive unit, but the Mavs’ offense will struggle mightily in this matchup.

OKC defends the paint at an elite level, and I don’t trust the Mavs’ 3-point shooting to keep them close. The Thunder are very aggressive at the perimeter, and they will find a way to slow Ryan Nembhard down.

This OKC team is very deep, so I expect them to dominate Dallas even if Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso remain on the shelf. The Mavs miss Dereck Lively II, while Daniel Gafford is listed as doubtful, so Dallas’ front court will be shorthanded.

Over/Under Pick for Mavs vs. Thunder           

• Under 228.5 (4 units) 

The Mavericks are fifth in the league in pace (101.9 possessions per 48 minutes), but they have to be patient in this game. OKC leads the NBA in defensive turnover percentage (15.6%), and the Thunder won’t hesitate to push the ball in transition. They are 18th in the league in pace (99.8).

Dallas needs to bring its best defense in order to keep it close against the mighty Thunder. The Mavericks defend the 3-point line at a high level, so I will take the under. Seven of the Mavericks’ last nine games overall have gone under the total.