Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction for Sunday March 29 2026
Use Code WWWC In Sunday night NBA action, the Miami Heat will invade Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers. The Heat have dropped six of their previous seven games and are still comfortably in contention for one of the four Play-In Tournament spots. Miami is sitting with an overall record of 39 wins and 35 losses. The Pacers are losers of 18 of their previous 19 games. Indiana is in full tank mode with a record of 16 wins and 58 losses. Read more about this Miami vs Indiana prediction! Struggling with handicapping? Try our NBA Predictions!
- Game day: Sunday, March 29, 2026
- Game time: 5:00 pm ET
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- TV channel: FDSSUN, FDSIN
Miami trending in the wrong direction
The Miami Heat have been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in consecutive years and appear destined for the same fate this season. The Heat have been unable to land top tier free agents and it could be the end of an era for Hall of Fame team president Pat Riley. Miami ranks seventh in the league in defensive efficiency and are giving up 117.7 points per game. The Heat are five games below .500 on the road and a half-game out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings. On Friday, Miami was torched for 81 points during the first half of a 149-128 road loss against Cleveland.
First-time All-Star Norman Powell leads seven Miami players in double figures with 22.1 points per game. Tyler Herro has appeared in less than half of the Heat’s games and is scoring 20.9 points on average. Bam Adebayo (20.2) erupted for 83 points against Washington earlier this month and leads Miami in rebounding (9.9 rpg).
Key Injury Report for Miami:
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- Terry Rozier (out) - suspension
Indiana executing a season long tanking plan
The Indiana Pacers advanced to the NBA Finals a season ago, but lost All-Star G Tyrese Haliburton to an Achilles injury. The Pacers lost C Myles Turner to Milwaukee in free agency and entered this season with a plan to tank for a top pick in the loaded 2026 NBA Draft. Indiana ranks second worst in the league in offensive efficiency by Hollinger's NBA Team Statistics and is scoring a measly 111.9 points per contest. The Pacers have dropped 27 of their first 37 home games and own the worst overall record in the NBA. On Friday, Indiana was unable to protect a 21-point lead after one quarter during a 114-113 home loss versus LA.
Talented F Pascal Siakam has been a consistent force in a down year for the Pacers and is averaging 23.7 points per game. Siakam also leads the team with 6.6 rebounds and 1.1 steals. Andrew Nembhard has increased his scoring in Haliburton’s absence with 17.0 points and a team-high 7.6 assists. Jarace Walker adds 11.5 points and 5.1 rebounds for the Pacers.
Key Injury Report for Indiana:
- Jarace Walker (DTD) - undisclosed
- Ivica Zubac (out) - rib
- Johnny Furphy (out) - knee
- Tyrese Haliburton (out) - Achilles
Miami vs Indiana Pick
Miami vs Indiana Spread Pick
- Pick: Indiana Spread
These two teams split their previous two meetings this season, with Miami winning at home 142-116 in December and Indiana responding with a 123-99 home victory in January. The Heat (43-31 ATS) are the third most profitable team in the NBA and are even better as road favorites (6-3 ATS). The Pacers thrive as home underdogs with a record of 18-12 ATS. Take the points.
Miami vs Indiana Over/Under Pick
- Pick: Over
Miami plays at the fastest tempo in the league and Indiana ranks tenth in that category. The Heat were one of the best defensive teams in the league through the first half of the season, but have started to slip lately. The Pacers rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and the total has gone over in six of their past seven outings. Take the over.
Final Score Prediction: Miami Heat win 128-123
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